...but not likely.

Here's how it would have to go down in my opinion:

Uconn and Cincy have to go AT LEAST 1-1 and win one in the tourney. UC would be the three seed and play Memphis, while UConn would be the 4-5 seed and play Houston. This would put UC at 23-10 and Uconn at 22-10. For those two "brand" schools, that's enough. but barely. RPI would be 45-ish for both.

Tulsa and Temple have to win out and make the conference finals. TOTALLY possible since they will be the one and two seed most likely, and be on opposite sides of the bracket....

Here's where it gets fun. Temple would have to beat Tulsa for the championship IMO since i think Tulsa has a stronger chance at an at-large. Tulsa would be sitting at 22-11 with a 40-ish RPI. Its about 50/50 whether or not that would be enough, but i think it just might...

My gut feeling says we only get 2, but there's hope for 3 if cincy and uconn finish strong and someone other than them wins the tourney.

What say you all??

East Carolina wins the tourney and we get 5.






We are talking baseball, right?

Most likely scenario is 2, with an ok shot at 3. 4 isn't happening.

(02-29-2016 02:41 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  ...but not likely.

Here's how it would have to go down in my opinion:

Uconn and Cincy have to go AT LEAST 1-1 and win one in the tourney. UC would be the three seed and play Memphis, while UConn would be the 4-5 seed and play Houston. This would put UC at 23-10 and Uconn at 22-10. For those two "brand" schools, that's enough. but barely. RPI would be 45-ish for both.

Tulsa and Temple have to win out and make the conference finals. TOTALLY possible since they will be the one and two seed most likely, and be on opposite sides of the bracket....

Here's where it gets fun. Temple would have to beat Tulsa for the championship IMO since i think Tulsa has a stronger chance at an at-large. Tulsa would be sitting at 22-11 with a 40-ish RPI. Its about 50/50 whether or not that would be enough, but i think it just might...

My gut feeling says we only get 2, but there's hope for 3 if cincy and uconn finish strong and someone other than them wins the tourney.

What say you all??

It has been my belief for some time that Temple has to win the conference tournament to get in. I also think at this point Tulsa has to win it all as well. And I am not as bullish on UConn and UC, I think they are both more bubbly than not.

Tulsa has no shot. None

LOL at Tulsa having no shot.

We are still one of the last teams in on numerous sites. I shouldn't have bitten on your trolling attempt, must be the stench of ohio polluting my brain.

(02-29-2016 03:19 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Most likely scenario is 2, with an ok shot at 3. 4 isn't happening.

Agreed...getting 3 will be amazing

Prior to this weekend I would have said there is an outside chance at 4 and there was a real good chance at 3. At this point however if you look at the track record of the selection committee, SMU was a top 25 team 2 years ago and Temple had an RPI around 35 last season and both got snubbed, I think the only lock is the conference tournament champ and there are some very realistic scenarios where that’s all we get.

Tulsa has a current RPI of 43 and has USF left, if they get to the finals of the AAC tournament I think they are in.

UC has an RPI of 52 and is at Houston and has SMU at home, if they lose both of those they will join Temple on the list of teams who needs to win the AAC tournament to have a shot.

UConn has an RPI of 53 and is at SMU and has UCF at home, they basically need to run the table or they will join Temple on the list of teams who need to win the AAC tournament to have a shot.

For Temple RPI 61 you may as well say that last Saturday vs UCF was the first round of the NCAA tournament because basically from here on out every game is a play in game for them, once they lose the season is over.

Houston and Memphis have proven they can beat anyone in this conference and if they are on their game I can see a scenario where either of those 2 get hot, win the AAC tournament, UC, UConn or Tulsa goes out early and we are looking at 1.

I don’t mean to be all doom and gloom it’s just I think 2 is much more realistic then 4, or even 3 at this point. No one is safe.

Keep sleeping on Houston...

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

RPI
KPI
BPI
Pomeroy
Sagarin
LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.

Here are where the American teams currently rank in the six-rank average:

SMU 13
UConn 31
Cincy 33
Tulsa 47 (among the last 4 in)
-----------------
Houston 61
Temple 77

Should Temple win the regular season crown outright and lose in the finals of the conference tournament, it will be interesting to see if the committee makes an exception for them.

(02-29-2016 04:20 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

RPI
KPI
BPI
Pomeroy
Sagarin
LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.

Here are where the American teams currently rank in the six-rank average:

SMU 13
UConn 31
Cincy 33
Tulsa 47 (among the last 4 in)
-----------------
Houston 61
Temple 77

Should Temple win the regular season crown outright and lose in the finals of the conference tournament, it will be interesting to see if the committee makes an exception for them.

Fantastic stuff...

I've thought for a while that UC and Uconn are safer than many think. This proves that.

(02-29-2016 03:53 PM)NYCTUFan Wrote:  Prior to this weekend I would have said there is an outside chance at 4 and there was a real good chance at 3. At this point however if you look at the track record of the selection committee, SMU was a top 25 team 2 years ago and Temple had an RPI around 35 last season and both got snubbed, I think the only lock is the conference tournament champ and there are some very realistic scenarios where that’s all we get.

Tulsa has a current RPI of 43 and has USF left, if they get to the finals of the AAC tournament I think they are in.

UC has an RPI of 52 and is at Houston and has SMU at home, if they lose both of those they will join Temple on the list of teams who needs to win the AAC tournament to have a shot.

UConn has an RPI of 53 and is at SMU and has UCF at home, they basically need to run the table or they will join Temple on the list of teams who need to win the AAC tournament to have a shot.

For Temple RPI 61 you may as well say that last Saturday vs UCF was the first round of the NCAA tournament because basically from here on out every game is a play in game for them, once they lose the season is over.

Houston and Memphis have proven they can beat anyone in this conference and if they are on their game I can see a scenario where either of those 2 get hot, win the AAC tournament, UC, UConn or Tulsa goes out early and we are looking at 1.

I don’t mean to be all doom and gloom it’s just I think 2 is much more realistic then 4, or even 3 at this point. No one is safe.

I agree Tulsa must get to the AAC finals of the Tourney to have a chance at an AT Large Bid.

I wish all the teams the best and hope we get 4 teams in. I'm also hoping that USF's MBB does something next year.