My operative principles:

1. Increases in revenue drive realignment.
2. Networks control the revenue increases.
3. Networks control realignment within conference parameters.
4. Structure and placement assist with advertising revenues.
5. Advertising for live broadcasts is profitable for the Networks.
6. The GOR's were put in place to stop uncontrolled product defections.
7. Nothing happens until 2 to 3 years prior to the end of the GOR's.
8. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy will actually assist the Networks in the remaining product placement and will avoid all legal entanglements that earlier placement could provoke.
9. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy also permits the culling of undesired properties without facing as much legal groundwork for lawsuits.
10. Most realignment between major conferences is stalled until 2022 because of this.

So my point is simply that until 2022 which is around 2 to 3 years from the expiration of the Big 12 & ACC GOR's nothing substantive is going to happen. Even if the Big 12 adds 2 as long as they do not extend the GOR everyone's options are open within 6 years regardless of conference membership.

While it doesn't guarantee that key schools will no longer request little brother travel companions it does free movement that otherwise would be constrained by other schools within a conference.

If you are the Big 10 and SEC and the passage of 6 years will merely lock you into an advantage over the others both economically and in exposure why should you be in a hurry to move? As long as the Big 10 gets a bump next time around why should they force anything? They have plenty. Ditto for the SEC.

So based upon what simply is, I would say that the SEC stays at 14 until 2022. The Big 10 will stay at 14 until 2022. The ACC will stay at 14 plus 1 until 2022. The PAC will stay at 12 until 2022. And, the Big 12 will either stay at 10 with a CCG, or might expand to 12 with a CCG, but will not extend their GOR.

The SEC will move to 9 conference games, or will at least require more P5 OOC games. Why? It gets them that interim bump in pay until they can add schools and renegotiate in 2022. The Big 10 will add some kind of challenge week for OOC scheduling to get an interim boost and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The PAC will sell a percentage of the PACN to both FOX & ESPN to get better carriage and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The Big 12 will be cherry picked in 2022. If the ACC is to suffer defections it comes in 2022. But they will have opportunity to lure the Irish all in to prevent it. Or to cherry pick the Big 12. If however the Big 12 has landed a network prior to the ACC getting one then the cherry picking could go the other way in 2022.

Why 2022? Both the ACC and Big 12 require a 2 year prior notification if a school intends to leave. If schools leave after the 2024 season they only have to negotiate the value of 1 year of a media contract to be completely out of a conference obligation to the GOR and then pay exit fees which the Big 10, SEC, and /or PAC will be in a better position to help cover. So notification of moves comes prior to August of 2022 and schools depart for their new conference homes in 2024. They buyout 1 year of their media rights agreement (the GOR) and they get their exit fees at least partially covered by their new conference homes.

Until then we wait.

Note: Why would the networks want to negotiate with everyone in 2022? To shape the final structure and its use to determine the playoff participants and to have input in the movement to make sure things progress profitably.

I think its completely the wrong way of looking at it.

Its not about revenue. Its about competitiveness though TV revenue drives conferences performance by coalescing the top performers into power conferences.

If you're in a P5 right now, you have no need to be sweating. The worst case scenario is you get left behind in what is the 6th best football conference and a very good basketball conference. You might even win more with less competition.

If you're in a G5, you are on the right side of the power struggle. You're fully funding your spots and providing stipends while the FCS conferences are making the right choices.

For the basketball conferences, I would be nervous especially if you aren't named the Big East. The Big East is the only non-basketball conference that the P5 feel they really need in a split. As part of the deal they might be willing to take in he WCC with its tradition and as a west coast basketball option. The A10 and MVC both have deserving schools but have some stragglers. Below them are mainly conferences that aren't even deserving at all.

Coastal made the right decision by leaving the Big South to the Sun Belt. Their probability of survival in athletics is much higher.

UMass ditched the MAC but will be OK in the short term at least because they did make the move up to FBS. If the A10 falters they could dial the MAC up and gain admission as a full member.

Delaware thought that moving to the G5 isn't a move up so didn't move up. That is a chance that I would not be willing to take. Moving up a level is almost always the way to go.

I need David to weigh in

(02-28-2016 01:58 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  I need David to weigh in

Hahaha....we think alike! DavidSt: how do you see things turning out? Arkansas Tech to the SEC? North Dakota St to the PAC? Illinois ST to the Big? Church of Christ: Brownsville to the Big 12? Cheers!

I think the big 10 and SEC want to raid the acc ASAP. I don't believe the ACC school's that the big 10 or sec want , VA + NC school's, having any interest in joining the big 10 no matter what they would make right now. Only big 10 and SEC homers think they can crack those school's. Also, think when the ACC contract is up, they will be able to close the gap since their current contract is lousy. Now what could change things would be if the big 10 or SEC were willing to bring in a big pack of ACC school's or they target non VA and NC school's.

For the big 12 to crack, i think the big 10 would need to offer KU and OU and they are gone or the SEC offer OU and Ok state and they are gone.

(02-28-2016 01:56 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  I think its completely the wrong way of looking at it.

Its not about revenue. Its about competitiveness though TV revenue drives conferences performance by coalescing the top performers into power conferences.

If you're in a P5 right now, you have no need to be sweating. The worst case scenario is you get left behind in what is the 6th best football conference and a very good basketball conference. You might even win more with less competition.

If you're in a G5, you are on the right side of the power struggle. You're fully funding your spots and providing stipends while the FCS conferences are making the right choices.

For the basketball conferences, I would be nervous especially if you aren't named the Big East. The Big East is the only non-basketball conference that the P5 feel they really need in a split. As part of the deal they might be willing to take in he WCC with its tradition and as a west coast basketball option. The A10 and MVC both have deserving schools but have some stragglers. Below them are mainly conferences that aren't even deserving at all.

Coastal made the right decision by leaving the Big South to the Sun Belt. Their probability of survival in athletics is much higher.

UMass ditched the MAC but will be OK in the short term at least because they did make the move up to FBS. If the A10 falters they could dial the MAC up and gain admission as a full member.

Delaware thought that moving to the G5 isn't a move up so didn't move up. That is a chance that I would not be willing to take. Moving up a level is almost always the way to go.

Interesting since I didn't say anything about the G5. Obliquely the possibility of two additions to the Big 12 would likely involve two of them but either way it won't affect the final structure of the upper tier. The P5 are consolidating, not expanding and time is on their side in that regard as well.

My view is we eventually have a P4. And as result more equal scheduling for football....conference games and no FCS.

(02-28-2016 02:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 01:56 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  I think its completely the wrong way of looking at it.

Its not about revenue. Its about competitiveness though TV revenue drives conferences performance by coalescing the top performers into power conferences.

If you're in a P5 right now, you have no need to be sweating. The worst case scenario is you get left behind in what is the 6th best football conference and a very good basketball conference. You might even win more with less competition.

If you're in a G5, you are on the right side of the power struggle. You're fully funding your spots and providing stipends while the FCS conferences are making the right choices.

For the basketball conferences, I would be nervous especially if you aren't named the Big East. The Big East is the only non-basketball conference that the P5 feel they really need in a split. As part of the deal they might be willing to take in he WCC with its tradition and as a west coast basketball option. The A10 and MVC both have deserving schools but have some stragglers. Below them are mainly conferences that aren't even deserving at all.

Coastal made the right decision by leaving the Big South to the Sun Belt. Their probability of survival in athletics is much higher.

UMass ditched the MAC but will be OK in the short term at least because they did make the move up to FBS. If the A10 falters they could dial the MAC up and gain admission as a full member.

Delaware thought that moving to the G5 isn't a move up so didn't move up. That is a chance that I would not be willing to take. Moving up a level is almost always the way to go.

Interesting since I didn't say anything about the G5. Obliquely the possibility of two additions to the Big 12 would likely involve two of them but either way it won't affect the final structure of the upper tier. The P5 are consolidating, not expanding and time is on their side in that regard as well.

How often in the history of conferences have they actually gone backwards in TV money?

1) WAC-16. The WAC made 1 million per school under the old CFA contract but ESPN didn't want to pay for its bloated product out of which led the formation of the AAC.

2) AAC. Only 3 schools carried over from the BE football conference into the new AAC. Conference per school TV deal was cut to about 50% of its former value partially because of the clause that allowed ESPN to match.

3) CUSA 3.0. While the ink is not dry its rumored that this conference is going to be dropped down to 500k per school (another 50% cut). They've had a massive loss in membership filled mostly with new FBS schools.

In every scenario the only conference to take a major TV dollars hit has been a G5. Power conferences have never had to take it on chin.

The B12 could take a 50% hit losing Texas and Oklahoma and it would still be 10 times what the AAC is making now. Most likely they take no hit BUT do not get future increased priced in like the other P5 conferences. That is not even factoring in getting a B12 network off the ground now that Texas is out the door which could add some $$$ if the eastern pivot happens.

(02-28-2016 02:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 02:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 01:56 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  I think its completely the wrong way of looking at it.

Its not about revenue. Its about competitiveness though TV revenue drives conferences performance by coalescing the top performers into power conferences.

If you're in a P5 right now, you have no need to be sweating. The worst case scenario is you get left behind in what is the 6th best football conference and a very good basketball conference. You might even win more with less competition.

If you're in a G5, you are on the right side of the power struggle. You're fully funding your spots and providing stipends while the FCS conferences are making the right choices.

For the basketball conferences, I would be nervous especially if you aren't named the Big East. The Big East is the only non-basketball conference that the P5 feel they really need in a split. As part of the deal they might be willing to take in he WCC with its tradition and as a west coast basketball option. The A10 and MVC both have deserving schools but have some stragglers. Below them are mainly conferences that aren't even deserving at all.

Coastal made the right decision by leaving the Big South to the Sun Belt. Their probability of survival in athletics is much higher.

UMass ditched the MAC but will be OK in the short term at least because they did make the move up to FBS. If the A10 falters they could dial the MAC up and gain admission as a full member.

Delaware thought that moving to the G5 isn't a move up so didn't move up. That is a chance that I would not be willing to take. Moving up a level is almost always the way to go.

Interesting since I didn't say anything about the G5. Obliquely the possibility of two additions to the Big 12 would likely involve two of them but either way it won't affect the final structure of the upper tier. The P5 are consolidating, not expanding and time is on their side in that regard as well.

How often in the history of conferences have they actually gone backwards in TV money?

1) WAC-16. The WAC made 1 million per school under the old CFA contract but ESPN didn't want to pay for its bloated product out of which led the formation of the AAC.

2) AAC. Only 3 schools carried over from the BE football conference into the new AAC. Conference per school TV deal was cut to about 50% of its former value partially because of the clause that allowed ESPN to match.

3) CUSA 3.0. While the ink is not dry its rumored that this conference is going to be dropped down to 500k per school (another 50% cut). They've had a massive loss in membership filled mostly with new FBS schools.

In every scenario the only conference to take a major TV dollars hit has been a G5. Power conferences have never had to take it on chin.

The B12 could take a 50% hit losing Texas and Oklahoma and it would still be 10 times what the AAC is making now. Most likely they take no hit BUT do not get future increased priced in like the other P5 conferences. That is not even factoring in getting a B12 network off the ground now that Texas is out the door which could add some $$$ if the eastern pivot happens.

Where did I say anyone was going backwards in revenue? So far your responses are a non sequitur to what was posted. If you want to talk about the impact of P realignment on the G5 then do so. I quite simply said that the networks would wait for the GOR's to reach their last couple of years before they encourage further realignment. The other is fairly simple and straight forward. Advertisers pay the Networks for exposure to audiences, hopefully large ones. The Networks pay the conferences mostly for rights but also they have been using the money to encourage the product placement they want because how it is placed impacts advertising revenues. Conferences express their parameters and the networks try to operate within them.

Nowhere do I say revenues are going backwards. Nowhere do I directly speak about the G5. In fact this whole post has nothing to do with the G5. So why are you using this thread to discuss G5 issues? This kind of junk is going to have to stop on this board. Stick to the topic. If it doesn't suit what you want to say then start a thread about what it is you desire to talk about.

I have a feeling that we're going to have completely different revenue streams by 2022... Shyts going to online streaming and will be easier to cut out the middleman. Times are changing. Plus it wouldn't surprise me if the bubble for network payouts pops before 2020.

(02-28-2016 02:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 02:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 01:56 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  I think its completely the wrong way of looking at it.

Its not about revenue. Its about competitiveness though TV revenue drives conferences performance by coalescing the top performers into power conferences.

If you're in a P5 right now, you have no need to be sweating. The worst case scenario is you get left behind in what is the 6th best football conference and a very good basketball conference. You might even win more with less competition.

If you're in a G5, you are on the right side of the power struggle. You're fully funding your spots and providing stipends while the FCS conferences are making the right choices.

For the basketball conferences, I would be nervous especially if you aren't named the Big East. The Big East is the only non-basketball conference that the P5 feel they really need in a split. As part of the deal they might be willing to take in he WCC with its tradition and as a west coast basketball option. The A10 and MVC both have deserving schools but have some stragglers. Below them are mainly conferences that aren't even deserving at all.

Coastal made the right decision by leaving the Big South to the Sun Belt. Their probability of survival in athletics is much higher.

UMass ditched the MAC but will be OK in the short term at least because they did make the move up to FBS. If the A10 falters they could dial the MAC up and gain admission as a full member.

Delaware thought that moving to the G5 isn't a move up so didn't move up. That is a chance that I would not be willing to take. Moving up a level is almost always the way to go.

Interesting since I didn't say anything about the G5. Obliquely the possibility of two additions to the Big 12 would likely involve two of them but either way it won't affect the final structure of the upper tier. The P5 are consolidating, not expanding and time is on their side in that regard as well.

How often in the history of conferences have they actually gone backwards in TV money?

1) WAC-16. The WAC made 1 million per school under the old CFA contract but ESPN didn't want to pay for its bloated product out of which led the formation of the AAC.

2) AAC. Only 3 schools carried over from the BE football conference into the new AAC. Conference per school TV deal was cut to about 50% of its former value partially because of the clause that allowed ESPN to match.

3) CUSA 3.0. While the ink is not dry its rumored that this conference is going to be dropped down to 500k per school (another 50% cut). They've had a massive loss in membership filled mostly with new FBS schools.

In every scenario the only conference to take a major TV dollars hit has been a G5. Power conferences have never had to take it on chin.

The B12 could take a 50% hit losing Texas and Oklahoma and it would still be 10 times what the AAC is making now. Most likely they take no hit BUT do not get future increased priced in like the other P5 conferences. That is not even factoring in getting a B12 network off the ground now that Texas is out the door which could add some $$$ if the eastern pivot happens.

Actually, when the NCAA monopoly broke up, the schools did get less money in the short run. And I think they briefly made less after ND left the CFA.

(02-28-2016 12:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  My operative principles:

1. Increases in revenue drive realignment.
2. Networks control the revenue increases.
3. Networks control realignment within conference parameters.
4. Structure and placement assist with advertising revenues.
5. Advertising for live broadcasts is profitable for the Networks.
6. The GOR's were put in place to stop uncontrolled product defections.
7. Nothing happens until 2 to 3 years prior to the end of the GOR's.
8. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy will actually assist the Networks in the remaining product placement and will avoid all legal entanglements that earlier placement could provoke.
9. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy also permits the culling of undesired properties without facing as much legal groundwork for lawsuits.
10. Most realignment between major conferences is stalled until 2022 because of this.

So my point is simply that until 2022 which is around 2 to 3 years from the expiration of the Big 12 & ACC GOR's nothing substantive is going to happen. Even if the Big 12 adds 2 as long as they do not extend the GOR everyone's options are open within 6 years regardless of conference membership.

While it doesn't guarantee that key schools will no longer request little brother travel companions it does free movement that otherwise would be constrained by other schools within a conference.

If you are the Big 10 and SEC and the passage of 6 years will merely lock you into an advantage over the others both economically and in exposure why should you be in a hurry to move? As long as the Big 10 gets a bump next time around why should they force anything? They have plenty. Ditto for the SEC.

So based upon what simply is, I would say that the SEC stays at 14 until 2022. The Big 10 will stay at 14 until 2022. The ACC will stay at 14 plus 1 until 2022. The PAC will stay at 12 until 2022. And, the Big 12 will either stay at 10 with a CCG, or might expand to 12 with a CCG, but will not extend their GOR.

The SEC will move to 9 conference games, or will at least require more P5 OOC games. Why? It gets them that interim bump in pay until they can add schools and renegotiate in 2022. The Big 10 will add some kind of challenge week for OOC scheduling to get an interim boost and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The PAC will sell a percentage of the PACN to both FOX & ESPN to get better carriage and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The Big 12 will be cherry picked in 2022. If the ACC is to suffer defections it comes in 2022. But they will have opportunity to lure the Irish all in to prevent it. Or to cherry pick the Big 12. If however the Big 12 has landed a network prior to the ACC getting one then the cherry picking could go the other way in 2022.

Why 2022? Both the ACC and Big 12 require a 2 year prior notification if a school intends to leave. If schools leave after the 2024 season they only have to negotiate the value of 1 year of a media contract to be completely out of a conference obligation to the GOR and then pay exit fees which the Big 10, SEC, and /or PAC will be in a better position to help cover. So notification of moves comes prior to August of 2022 and schools depart for their new conference homes in 2024. They buyout 1 year of their media rights agreement (the GOR) and they get their exit fees at least partially covered by their new conference homes.

Until then we wait.

Note: Why would the networks want to negotiate with everyone in 2022? To shape the final structure and its use to determine the playoff participants and to have input in the movement to make sure things progress profitably.

The ACC's GOR runs through the 2026-27 season.
With a two year notification period we are looking at 2024, not 2022.
BTW the ACC GOR coincides with the ACC's contract with ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...presidents

I have a feeling nothing is going on with realignment. Only people going on about it is because of twitter rumors.

(02-28-2016 04:56 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I have a feeling that we're going to have completely different revenue streams by 2022... Shyts going to online streaming and will be easier to cut out the middleman. Times are changing. Plus it wouldn't surprise me if the bubble for network payouts pops before 2020.

I definitely think that the networks want to play wait and see. They'd be perfectly happy right now with the status quo. If they want to play with the realignment they will be a lot more certain of what they want by 2022 and won't be trapped by decisions they have to make today without complete information.

And for the record I think the bubble is popping already.

(02-28-2016 05:37 PM)rednblackattack Wrote:  I have a feeling nothing is going on with realignment. Only people going on about it is because of twitter rumors.

Well, that and everything Boren has said.

(02-28-2016 05:07 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 12:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  My operative principles:

1. Increases in revenue drive realignment.
2. Networks control the revenue increases.
3. Networks control realignment within conference parameters.
4. Structure and placement assist with advertising revenues.
5. Advertising for live broadcasts is profitable for the Networks.
6. The GOR's were put in place to stop uncontrolled product defections.
7. Nothing happens until 2 to 3 years prior to the end of the GOR's.
8. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy will actually assist the Networks in the remaining product placement and will avoid all legal entanglements that earlier placement could provoke.
9. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy also permits the culling of undesired properties without facing as much legal groundwork for lawsuits.
10. Most realignment between major conferences is stalled until 2022 because of this.

So my point is simply that until 2022 which is around 2 to 3 years from the expiration of the Big 12 & ACC GOR's nothing substantive is going to happen. Even if the Big 12 adds 2 as long as they do not extend the GOR everyone's options are open within 6 years regardless of conference membership.

While it doesn't guarantee that key schools will no longer request little brother travel companions it does free movement that otherwise would be constrained by other schools within a conference.

If you are the Big 10 and SEC and the passage of 6 years will merely lock you into an advantage over the others both economically and in exposure why should you be in a hurry to move? As long as the Big 10 gets a bump next time around why should they force anything? They have plenty. Ditto for the SEC.

So based upon what simply is, I would say that the SEC stays at 14 until 2022. The Big 10 will stay at 14 until 2022. The ACC will stay at 14 plus 1 until 2022. The PAC will stay at 12 until 2022. And, the Big 12 will either stay at 10 with a CCG, or might expand to 12 with a CCG, but will not extend their GOR.

The SEC will move to 9 conference games, or will at least require more P5 OOC games. Why? It gets them that interim bump in pay until they can add schools and renegotiate in 2022. The Big 10 will add some kind of challenge week for OOC scheduling to get an interim boost and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The PAC will sell a percentage of the PACN to both FOX & ESPN to get better carriage and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The Big 12 will be cherry picked in 2022. If the ACC is to suffer defections it comes in 2022. But they will have opportunity to lure the Irish all in to prevent it. Or to cherry pick the Big 12. If however the Big 12 has landed a network prior to the ACC getting one then the cherry picking could go the other way in 2022.

Why 2022? Both the ACC and Big 12 require a 2 year prior notification if a school intends to leave. If schools leave after the 2024 season they only have to negotiate the value of 1 year of a media contract to be completely out of a conference obligation to the GOR and then pay exit fees which the Big 10, SEC, and /or PAC will be in a better position to help cover. So notification of moves comes prior to August of 2022 and schools depart for their new conference homes in 2024. They buyout 1 year of their media rights agreement (the GOR) and they get their exit fees at least partially covered by their new conference homes.

Until then we wait.

Note: Why would the networks want to negotiate with everyone in 2022? To shape the final structure and its use to determine the playoff participants and to have input in the movement to make sure things progress profitably.

The ACC's GOR runs through the 2026-27 season.
With a two year notification period we are looking at 2024, not 2022.
BTW the ACC GOR coincides with the ACC's contract with ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...presidents

It won't matter Xlance. Once you are inside 5 years the buyout is not that high and having it coincide with your contract isn't going to affect whether a school decides to stay or go. It does mean though that ESPN can make a determination by how they value their new offer.

(02-28-2016 05:37 PM)rednblackattack Wrote:  I have a feeling nothing is going on with realignment. Only people going on about it is because of twitter rumors.

The real question is who will end up in jail first: Petrino or Petino?

tough call

(02-28-2016 05:37 PM)rednblackattack Wrote:  I have a feeling nothing is going on with realignment. Only people going on about it is because of twitter rumors.

You are right that nothing is going on with realignment.

Some of the people on here are so flippant about realignment because they think we are headed toward some kind of end state where either you get in or you are left out forever. They are very concerned about being on the inside of the P4 or P3 or whatever else it is reducing down to.

I think realignment will be continual and it will happen for reasons in the future that we can't foresee at this moment. There will never be any end state to realignment.

Conferences in a lot of ways matter less than ever. If a school has the money they compete, be it with a conference that has a large TV deal or not.

(02-28-2016 05:37 PM)rednblackattack Wrote:  I have a feeling nothing is going on with realignment. Only people going on about it is because of twitter rumors.

Spot on!

(02-28-2016 05:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-28-2016 04:56 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I have a feeling that we're going to have completely different revenue streams by 2022... Shyts going to online streaming and will be easier to cut out the middleman. Times are changing. Plus it wouldn't surprise me if the bubble for network payouts pops before 2020.

I definitely think that the networks want to play wait and see. They'd be perfectly happy right now with the status quo. If they want to play with the realignment they will be a lot more certain of what they want by 2022 and won't be trapped by decisions they have to make today without complete information.

And for the record I think the bubble is popping already.

Or thinking along the same lines....Schools with large fan bases willing to pay for college sports/conference networks will become more valuable to conferences then schools in huge media markets...which would only make the SEC/BIG stronger

Jackson