My operative principles:

1. Increases in revenue drive realignment.
2. Networks control the revenue increases.
3. Networks control realignment within conference parameters.
4. Structure and placement assist with advertising revenues.
5. Advertising for live broadcasts is profitable for the Networks.
6. The GOR's were put in place to stop uncontrolled product defections.
7. Nothing happens until 2 to 3 years prior to the end of the GOR's.
8. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy will actually assist the Networks in the remaining product placement and will avoid all legal entanglements that earlier placement could provoke.
9. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy also permits the culling of undesired properties without facing as much legal groundwork for lawsuits.
10. Most realignment between major conferences is stalled until 2022 because of this.

So my point is simply that until 2022 which is around 2 to 3 years from the expiration of the Big 12 & ACC GOR's nothing substantive is going to happen. Even if the Big 12 adds 2 as long as they do not extend the GOR everyone's options are open within 6 years regardless of conference membership.

While it doesn't guarantee that key schools will no longer request little brother travel companions it does free movement that otherwise would be constrained by other schools within a conference.

If you are the Big 10 and SEC and the passage of 6 years will merely lock you into an advantage over the others both economically and in exposure why should you be in a hurry to move? As long as the Big 10 gets a bump next time around why should they force anything? They have plenty. Ditto for the SEC.

So based upon what simply is, I would say that the SEC stays at 14 until 2022. The Big 10 will stay at 14 until 2022. The ACC will stay at 14 plus 1 until 2022. The PAC will stay at 12 until 2022. And, the Big 12 will either stay at 10 with a CCG, or might expand to 12 with a CCG, but will not extend their GOR.

The SEC will move to 9 conference games, or will at least require more P5 OOC games. Why? It gets them that interim bump in pay until they can add schools and renegotiate in 2022. The Big 10 will add some kind of challenge week for OOC scheduling to get an interim boost and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The PAC will sell a percentage of the PACN to both FOX & ESPN to get better carriage and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The Big 12 will be cherry picked in 2022. If the ACC is to suffer defections it comes in 2022. But they will have opportunity to lure the Irish all in to prevent it. Or to cherry pick the Big 12. If however the Big 12 has landed a network prior to the ACC getting one then the cherry picking could go the other way in 2022.

Why 2022? Both the ACC and Big 12 require a 2 year prior notification if a school intends to leave. If schools leave after the 2024 season they only have to negotiate the value of 1 year of a media contract to be completely out of a conference obligation to the GOR and then pay exit fees which the Big 10, SEC, and /or PAC will be in a better position to help cover. So notification of moves comes prior to August of 2022 and schools depart for their new conference homes in 2024. They buyout 1 year of their media rights agreement (the GOR) and they get their exit fees at least partially covered by their new conference homes.

Until then we wait.

(02-28-2016 12:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  My operative principles:

1. Increases in revenue drive realignment.
2. Networks control the revenue increases.
3. Networks control realignment within conference parameters.
4. Structure and placement assist with advertising revenues.
5. Advertising for live broadcasts is profitable for the Networks.
6. The GOR's were put in place to stop uncontrolled product defections.
7. Nothing happens until 2 to 3 years prior to the end of the GOR's.
8. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy will actually assist the Networks in the remaining product placement and will avoid all legal entanglements that earlier placement could provoke.
9. Waiting until the GOR's have lost efficacy also permits the culling of undesired properties without facing as much legal groundwork for lawsuits.
10. Most realignment between major conferences is stalled until 2022 because of this.

So my point is simply that until 2022 which is around 2 to 3 years from the expiration of the Big 12 & ACC GOR's nothing substantive is going to happen. Even if the Big 12 adds 2 as long as they do not extend the GOR everyone's options are open within 6 years regardless of conference membership.

While it doesn't guarantee that key schools will no longer request little brother travel companions it does free movement that otherwise would be constrained by other schools within a conference.

If you are the Big 10 and SEC and the passage of 6 years will merely lock you into an advantage over the others both economically and in exposure why should you be in a hurry to move? As long as the Big 10 gets a bump next time around why should they force anything? They have plenty. Ditto for the SEC.

So based upon what simply is, I would say that the SEC stays at 14 until 2022. The Big 10 will stay at 14 until 2022. The ACC will stay at 14 plus 1 until 2022. The PAC will stay at 12 until 2022. And, the Big 12 will either stay at 10 with a CCG, or might expand to 12 with a CCG, but will not extend their GOR.

The SEC will move to 9 conference games, or will at least require more P5 OOC games. Why? It gets them that interim bump in pay until they can add schools and renegotiate in 2022. The Big 10 will add some kind of challenge week for OOC scheduling to get an interim boost and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The PAC will sell a percentage of the PACN to both FOX & ESPN to get better carriage and will add in 2022 to renegotiate. The Big 12 will be cherry picked in 2022. If the ACC is to suffer defections it comes in 2022. But they will have opportunity to lure the Irish all in to prevent it. Or to cherry pick the Big 12. If however the Big 12 has landed a network prior to the ACC getting one then the cherry picking could go the other way in 2022.

Why 2022? Both the ACC and Big 12 require a 2 year prior notification if a school intends to leave. If schools leave after the 2024 season they only have to negotiate the value of 1 year of a media contract to be completely out of a conference obligation to the GOR and then pay exit fees which the Big 10, SEC, and /or PAC will be in a better position to help cover. So notification of moves comes prior to August of 2022 and schools depart for their new conference homes in 2024. They buyout 1 year of their media rights agreement (the GOR) and they get their exit fees at least partially covered by their new conference homes.

Until then we wait.

Agreed Jr. Six or seven years from now conference disparity will be much more obvious. Schools will move where the money is. Being a St Louis Rams fan, I have just learned that money drives the train... not principles.

I'm afraid you are right about the timeline. I wish we could go ahead and get this nonsense over with.

(03-01-2016 01:29 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm afraid you are right about the timeline. I wish we could go ahead and get this nonsense over with.

I hope OU wallflowers this summer and gets the party started

(03-01-2016 03:08 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(03-01-2016 01:29 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm afraid you are right about the timeline. I wish we could go ahead and get this nonsense over with.

I hope OU wallflowers this summer and gets the party started

Me too.