Excerpt:

Boren wants what's best for Boren: The Oklahoma president is not a populist. He is positioning OU for the future. As mentioned earlier, he could find a workaround for that grant of rights which has bound the league together since 2010. No doubt, there would be plenty of interest in OU from the likes of the Big Ten and Pac-12.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...ealignment

Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Finally, a well researched article from one of the more respectable mainstream media outlets.

Interesting that the (from industry insider's?) first two schools that he mentioned are the ones that have been mentioned by others as the leading contenders, BYU and Cincy. I wish he explored BYU's Sunday play issue a little more and if it really is that big of a deal. And I think he underestimates the value in taking the two top G5's left. It would further weaken the G5, and by subtraction make the 5 oligopoly that much stronger.

He mentions President Boren's age-74-probably because there are some in the Big 12 who are content to do nothing and maybe wait out President Boren's until he retires. That's an interesting view, and has considerable merit.

(02-23-2016 08:38 AM)BE4evah Wrote:  Finally, a well researched article from one of the more respectable mainstream media outlets.

Well researched? So I learned that "during the 15 years the Big 12 did stage a championship game (1996-2010), the Big 12 favorite lost six times (40 percent)."

Reads just like the last 20 articles on the same subject just a different writer.

(02-23-2016 08:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Texas indy, Oklahoma and KU B1G.

I agree with a lot of the article. Boren can push but not force the B12. GOR issue is huge, and an anchor around OLK neck. Bottom line is unless rest of prez decide to move, nothing happens, and OLK can't change that.

The other question is will a B12 network be profitable? That seems to be very much up in the air.

I thought a good article. I do think the outside consultants will have a big impact. If they advocate for one direction, I think it will sway minds pretty easily.

As far as OU and Texas, I've always said that if the revenue gradient gets too high, that will be when they leave. It doesn't matter what the league does wrt expansion, network or CCG. Even if Boren gets everything he wants, if the gradient is high enough, they will make a move, as any of the schools would do. So the key is to come up with the model that maximizes revenue and evens that gradient as long as possible. To me, adding a CCG, not expanding and keeping the third tier rights with the individual institutions is the best model in that regard.

(02-23-2016 09:19 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 08:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Texas indy, Oklahoma and KU B1G.

I concur

(02-23-2016 10:05 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 09:19 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 08:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Texas indy, Oklahoma and KU B1G.

I concur

Of course this leaves:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
West Virginia

Big 12 would add BYU, Boise State Cincinnati to get back to 10. If 12 teams is the goal B12 also adds Connecticut and Temple. If 14 is the goal, Colorado State and Mempis are also added.

(02-23-2016 10:12 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 10:05 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 09:19 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 08:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Texas indy, Oklahoma and KU B1G.

I concur

Of course this leaves:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
West Virginia

Big 12 would add BYU, Boise State Cincinnati to get back to 10. If 12 teams is the goal B12 also adds Connecticut and Temple. If 14 is the goal, Colorado State and Mempis are also added.

BYU

And then the G5 become a G6.

(02-23-2016 09:45 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I agree with a lot of the article. Boren can push but not force the B12. GOR issue is huge, and an anchor around OLK neck. Bottom line is unless rest of prez decide to move, nothing happens, and OLK can't change that.

The other question is will a B12 network be profitable? That seems to be very much up in the air.

That will be the big thing the consultants must vet. If they think it has potential, then expansion becomes almost certain. That's when it becomes about "volume" and "markets". If a network is not viable or forecast more like a PAC-12 network revenue, then expansion is dead and the model continues to be a maximize tier 1 and 2, split the postseason pie less type model.

I think the equation is as simple as

no viable path to a profitable conference network = no expansion.

and the opposite:
viable path to a profitable conference network = expansion

With the struggles of the PAC-12 and the inertia of the ACC networks (not to mention the in the red Longhorn network), I just fail to see how the first part of the second equation will be found to be true. But that is the consultant's job.

(02-23-2016 09:58 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I thought a good article. I do think the outside consultants will have a big impact. If they advocate for one direction, I think it will sway minds pretty easily.

As far as OU and Texas, I've always said that if the revenue gradient gets too high, that will be when they leave. It doesn't matter what the league does wrt expansion, network or CCG. Even if Boren gets everything he wants, if the gradient is high enough, they will make a move, as any of the schools would do. So the key is to come up with the model that maximizes revenue and evens that gradient as long as possible. To me, adding a CCG, not expanding and keeping the third tier rights with the individual institutions is the best model in that regard.

The only two schools the Big 12 is worried about leaving are OU and Texas. Everybody else is replaceable, and none are in high demand anyway. They are also the only two members for whom third tier rights are valuable enough to factor into any realignment decision.

Somebody mentioned Boren's age in the context of that being a reason to wait him out instead of caving to his demands. That could work two ways. He knows he can't wait much longer to fish or cut bait. The conference could decide to agree to two of his demands - expansion and CCG - but they can only agree to explore a conference network. Third parties - ESPN and Fox - could scuttle that as economically too risky a venture for them. So, if Boren is looking for an excuse to leave, and quickly, either of those networks would be happy to add OU to one of their other conference properties.

(02-23-2016 10:13 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 10:12 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 10:05 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 09:19 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 08:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Texas indy, Oklahoma and KU B1G.

I concur

Of course this leaves:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
West Virginia

Big 12 would add BYU, Boise State Cincinnati to get back to 10. If 12 teams is the goal B12 also adds Connecticut and Temple. If 14 is the goal, Colorado State and Mempis are also added.

BYU

And then the G5 become a G6.

yes

(02-23-2016 10:13 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 10:12 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 10:05 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 09:19 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 08:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Interesting, looking forward, Where will Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas leave to?

Texas indy, Oklahoma and KU B1G.

I concur

Of course this leaves:

Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
West Virginia

Big 12 would add BYU, Boise State Cincinnati to get back to 10. If 12 teams is the goal B12 also adds Connecticut and Temple. If 14 is the goal, Colorado State and Mempis are also added.

BYU

And then the G5 become a G6.

Then we'd be so fly, like a g6

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

(02-23-2016 10:33 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 09:58 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I thought a good article. I do think the outside consultants will have a big impact. If they advocate for one direction, I think it will sway minds pretty easily.

As far as OU and Texas, I've always said that if the revenue gradient gets too high, that will be when they leave. It doesn't matter what the league does wrt expansion, network or CCG. Even if Boren gets everything he wants, if the gradient is high enough, they will make a move, as any of the schools would do. So the key is to come up with the model that maximizes revenue and evens that gradient as long as possible. To me, adding a CCG, not expanding and keeping the third tier rights with the individual institutions is the best model in that regard.

The only two schools the Big 12 is worried about leaving are OU and Texas. Everybody else is replaceable, and none are in high demand anyway. They are also the only two members for whom third tier rights are valuable enough to factor into any realignment decision.

Somebody mentioned Boren's age in the context of that being a reason to wait him out instead of caving to his demands. That could work two ways. He knows he can't wait much longer to fish or cut bait. The conference could decide to agree to two of his demands - expansion and CCG - but they can only agree to explore a conference network. Third parties - ESPN and Fox - could scuttle that as economically too risky a venture for them. So, if Boren is looking for an excuse to leave, and quickly, either of those networks would be happy to add OU to one of their other conference properties.

The flaw in the theory of the mindreaders who, in direct contradiction to everything he has said, claim Boren wants to leave, is that the GOR won't be up until he is 85. He acknowledges the value of the GOR. OU is not leaving the Big 12 under Boren.

(02-23-2016 10:33 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-23-2016 09:58 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I thought a good article. I do think the outside consultants will have a big impact. If they advocate for one direction, I think it will sway minds pretty easily.

As far as OU and Texas, I've always said that if the revenue gradient gets too high, that will be when they leave. It doesn't matter what the league does wrt expansion, network or CCG. Even if Boren gets everything he wants, if the gradient is high enough, they will make a move, as any of the schools would do. So the key is to come up with the model that maximizes revenue and evens that gradient as long as possible. To me, adding a CCG, not expanding and keeping the third tier rights with the individual institutions is the best model in that regard.

The only two schools the Big 12 is worried about leaving are OU and Texas. Everybody else is replaceable, and none are in high demand anyway. They are also the only two members for whom third tier rights are valuable enough to factor into any realignment decision.

Somebody mentioned Boren's age in the context of that being a reason to wait him out instead of caving to his demands. That could work two ways. He knows he can't wait much longer to fish or cut bait. The conference could decide to agree to two of his demands - expansion and CCG - but they can only agree to explore a conference network. Third parties - ESPN and Fox - could scuttle that as economically too risky a venture for them. So, if Boren is looking for an excuse to leave, and quickly, either of those networks would be happy to add OU to one of their other conference properties.

Yeah, that was my point (wrt to OU and UT) although I would include KU in there.

I don't think anyone will leave until the next round of TV negotiations when the grant of rights are ending. That is the natural point in time for movement- it is when almost all moves have occurred. The Big 12 should work to maximize revenue in the meantime. At that point if the revenue gradients are great enough (and if the Big 10 and SEC models still benefit from market expansion) then teams will move on. If the carriage fee model starts to dry up with cord cutting and the revenue gradient isn't large, the Big 12 will go on intact to the next TV cycle.

(02-23-2016 09:10 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Reads just like the last 20 articles on the same subject just a different writer.

Exactly right.

And reading these articles shows that the sportswriters are just completely speculating, like any of us on this message board. They don't have inside information or any wise insight about what might really happen.

So reported numbers for third tier/conference network payouts per school are:
UT: 15M
B1G: ~10M
SEC: ~ 7.5 M
OU/KU/WVU: 6-7M
PAC: 1-2M

For BigXii(+2) network to work, and for each school to subsidize UT at its current 15M, the BigXii network average per school payout would have to be the same as the SEC network. That's not going to happen based on a limited population footprint and very few national brands. Expansion won't solve this.

I can't see anybody allowing a sixth power conference. It is about consolidating money. A sixth conference only would dilute something the P5 has worked long and hard on.

As for options for Oklahoma, President Boren is no fool. He is a master politician first. Something like Texas, Oklahoma to the Big Ten. The leftovers would then scramble. Maybe WVU to the ACC since they eliminated academics as a factor. KU, KState, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Ok State would fight to be tag alongs to the Big Ten. But since the Big Ten rejected Missouri, I doubt they have any appetite for the Little 7. KU's the worst football program in FBS, Baylor and TCU are religious privates that don't fit the Big Ten mold. Iowa doesn't want Iowa State. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in particular need to ride the coattails of Texas and Oklahoma.