(02-22-2016 05:34 PM)nole Wrote: Lou,
Great points...and maybe I am missing this....but with that extension, it has to be determined if the small bone that ESPN throws to the ACC for an extension is worth it?
I am sure a good portion of the ACC will be happy with anything, but others might have to seriously consider if that just locks them into a severe revenue gap for an even longer period of time.
The ACC can't afford to lock themselves into a contract that keeps them at the bottom financially and aggressively gets attacked by that network while promoting their competition.
Seems issue #1 is the ACC has a vast divide on what is acceptable in these areas....think most schools don't care about the coverage issues (SEC issues) and are good with any revenue, just as long as they seem themselves on the 'inside'. That simply won't be good enough for higher value brands who will be asked to lock in for another 10-20 years.
I don't know how that will play out, but that is my exact concern, that "network mania" will walk the ACC right into extending a crappy deal on additionally crappy terms. If you extend out twenty years, and get $4M more a year...that doesn't cut it. In my wildest fantasies, that's why the network is taking time is because the ACC is not willing to settle for just anything ESPN throws out there. My brain tells me that is likely wishful thinking.
The alternative however, is that the ACC sucks it up and rides out the contract. Ten years from now, the ACC can walk away from ESPN if they want, but they can open bidding for anyone. Not only does that give the possibility of leaving ESPN if you want to (although I disagree with you on the wisdom of that a little bit), but you have a contract valued on the open market.
In other words, in 2027, the ACC could be on a brand new contract straight off the open market. I guarantee that they will be making more in 2027 if they wait out the contract than if they get a network and extend through 2035.
But that probably means nearly ten years $10M+ deficits to the SEC and B1G.
Can the ACC hold up to those deficits that long? Can they stay the course?
It's a good question. I have no doubt that getting to 2026 and exploring all options is the best chance to get a game changing deal, especially because the SEC and B1G will still be well in the midst of theirs. But that's a long time to take that deficit. I'm firmly a believer of not doing a network, getting to the end of the contract to explore options, and even I have a hard time with being at that deficit for so long, if ESPN comes along offering a $6-7M increase to extend.
Of course, if the ACC leadership came out and would explain the scenario, why we're waiting, what we'll be looking at by waiting, it might be bearable. But the conferences is so damn tight-lipped that they don't give people ANYTHING encouraging to hold their hats on.