(02-02-2016 12:28 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Again, you are passing off your opinion as a fact, namely FS2, FX, FSN (remember FSN, how Fox used to broadcast Big 12 and PAC 12 football games all of 3 years ago?)or other. If the Big Ten is okay with, or has no control over, games on ESPN Freakin News, then it tells you all you need to know in terms of their position on this matter. If Fox pays them more, and says "we need to put a few games on FS2," or "we will put some games on FX," or whatever, if the check is bigger, they will do what they need to do. Until you find a memo from Delaney stating otherwise, you need to stop assuming your opinion is a fact, then passing it off to try and prove your point. You have been saying this for two years, and it is no more true now then it was then.

You do understand that
ESPNU is in 73 million homes
ESPNews is in 71 million homes
FS2 is in 48 million homes(with not all of them in HD)

You are drunk if you really think that the Big Ten would willingly sign a contract putting even 1 game on FS2. The Big Ten has the leverage. They aren't going to be morons and blindly take Fox. Especially with the games they tried to play with the Pac 12- everything with Fox would be spelled out.....

The thing is, the Big Ten can afford to not be as money hungry as what the Big East did. They don't have to go for maximum dollars. And the thing is, Delaney is smart enough to know that better exposure is worth it. If the better exposure can get close enough money wise to the maximum dollars, they'll go for the better exposure and not think twice about it.

Again ... maybe 24 games on FOX + FS1 is good enough for the B1G. Just the choicest of the choice matchups make it. The catch is, FOX has to pay up more than ESPN is paying now for the 4x games it gets.

With the rest of the games going on BTN. In other words, beef up BTN games, thus commanding higher carriage fee, while getting more money for fewer T1/T2 games (on FOX).


Money talks. Not impossible.

(02-02-2016 12:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Again ... maybe 24 games on FOX + FS1 is good enough for the B1G. Just the choicest of the choice matchups make it. The catch is, FOX has to pay up more than ESPN is paying now for the 4x games it gets.

With the rest of the games going on BTN. In other words, beef up BTN games, thus commanding higher carriage fee, while getting more money for fewer T1/T2 games (on FOX).


Money talks. Not impossible.

Thing is 24 games, with 2/3 being on Fox(which you know Big Ten would demand) doesn't help FS1 out much at all.

What fox wants is beaucoup games on FS1. Big Ten is going to demand the games being on Big Fox.

In a typical college football season, there are 14 weekends, not counting CCG weekend. Figure 3 "windows" per Saturday, plus 3 more games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. That gives FS1 45 slots during CFB regular season to show sports events. Let's put another 30 on Big Fox on Saturdays, plus Thanksgiving weekend.

That's 75 slots. 22 PAC, 12 Big 12 (I'm assuming Stever20's right about the contract) 75-34 = 41. That's the entire Big Ten ABC/ESPN networks package.

Except that Fox and/or FS1 also has to (or at least really wants to) show a couple of UFC events, a couple of MLB September and playoff games, Champions LEague soccer, some other soccer, a couple of early season college basketball games (Big 12, PAC, Big EAst), a bunch of NHRA qualifiers on Saturdays. I suspect they'd like to move some of those Big 12 FSN games to FS1.

If I know this, Delaney knows this. I don't think Delaney is going to sign the whole package over to Fox because they offer $1M more than ESPN. I don't think Fox offers enough of a premium for Delaney to let Fox put Big Ten games on non-basic cable or on non-sports cable channels.

If ESPN bows out, either completely or with a sub-standard bid, the games Fox Sports can't handle make a lot more sense to everyone on NBC-OTA or CBS-OTA than they do on FSN or FS2 or FX.

(02-02-2016 12:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 12:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Again ... maybe 24 games on FOX + FS1 is good enough for the B1G. Just the choicest of the choice matchups make it. The catch is, FOX has to pay up more than ESPN is paying now for the 4x games it gets.

With the rest of the games going on BTN. In other words, beef up BTN games, thus commanding higher carriage fee, while getting more money for fewer T1/T2 games (on FOX).


Money talks. Not impossible.

Thing is 24 games, with 2/3 being on Fox(which you know Big Ten would demand) doesn't help FS1 out much at all.

What fox wants is beaucoup games on FS1. Big Ten is going to demand the games being on Big Fox.

Something like 15 games on Big Fox, 15 games on FS1, 10 games on NBC or CBS is what I expect. Unless ESPN stays in the game, in which case a 50-50 Fox-ESPN split.

(02-02-2016 01:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Something like 15 games on Big Fox, 15 games on FS1, 10 games on NBC or CBS is what I expect. Unless ESPN stays in the game, in which case a 50-50 Fox-ESPN split.

ESPN will get at least a minimal package - e.g., one ESPN/ESPN2 game on Saturday plus some basketball. Big Ten won't leave ESPN empty-handed and risk getting the "NHL treatment" on ESPN.

(02-02-2016 01:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  In a typical college football season, there are 14 weekends, not counting CCG weekend. Figure 3 "windows" per Saturday, plus 3 more games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. That gives FS1 45 slots during CFB regular season to show sports events. Let's put another 30 on Big Fox on Saturdays, plus Thanksgiving weekend.

That's 75 slots. 22 PAC, 12 Big 12 (I'm assuming Stever20's right about the contract) 75-34 = 41. That's the entire Big Ten ABC/ESPN networks package.

Except that Fox and/or FS1 also has to (or at least really wants to) show a couple of UFC events, a couple of MLB September and playoff games, Champions LEague soccer, some other soccer, a couple of early season college basketball games (Big 12, PAC, Big EAst), a bunch of NHRA qualifiers on Saturdays. I suspect they'd like to move some of those Big 12 FSN games to FS1.

If I know this, Delaney knows this. I don't think Delaney is going to sign the whole package over to Fox because they offer $1M more than ESPN. I don't think Fox offers enough of a premium for Delaney to let Fox put Big Ten games on non-basic cable or on non-sports cable channels.

If ESPN bows out, either completely or with a sub-standard bid, the games Fox Sports can't handle make a lot more sense to everyone on NBC-OTA or CBS-OTA than they do on FSN or FS2 or FX.

There are 13 weekends in a regular college football season(not including championship weekend). 2 of 7 years there's a 14th week. So even there taking out that 1 weekend you are down to at most 70 open slots. 70-34 is 36.... Not what ESPN had right now.

Fox then has to show MLB thru September and October. Like this season coming up, would be 5 weekends. Easily take away 5 of those slots. Then playoffs. Another say 3-4 slots. So down to roughly 28 slots. Then UFC. just looking about 8 times where they took FS1 space(remember when its a UFC PPV even the pre ppv fights are on FS1. So all of a sudden you're down to about 20 spots available.

(02-02-2016 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Fox doesn't have the room.... Between UFC, MLB, Big 12, Pac 12- they don't have the slots that the Big Ten needs. And don't even say well FS2. Big Ten isn't putting any of their stuff on FS2. And contractually Fox can't move what they currently have to FS2. And FX? Fox made the move to split away from sports there. They aren't going back.....

There are petitions going around to put FS1 back into the Speed Channel. Fox does have some issues with viewers who used to watched the Speed Channel for auto racing. Fox still does of Fox Sports SW and all that. They could have used those and rolled those regional channels into one and called them FS1 as a whole.

(02-02-2016 01:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 01:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Something like 15 games on Big Fox, 15 games on FS1, 10 games on NBC or CBS is what I expect. Unless ESPN stays in the game, in which case a 50-50 Fox-ESPN split.

ESPN will get at least a minimal package - e.g., one ESPN/ESPN2 game on Saturday plus some basketball. Big Ten won't leave ESPN empty-handed and risk getting the "NHL treatment" on ESPN.

If it's up to Bristol and the Big Ten, that happens. The question is, does Disney effectively stop ESPN from bidding at all.

Two to three years ago, I think ESPN throws $10M at CUSA just to have it. They didn't. Times are changing.

(02-02-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 12:28 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Again, you are passing off your opinion as a fact, namely FS2, FX, FSN (remember FSN, how Fox used to broadcast Big 12 and PAC 12 football games all of 3 years ago?)or other. If the Big Ten is okay with, or has no control over, games on ESPN Freakin News, then it tells you all you need to know in terms of their position on this matter. If Fox pays them more, and says "we need to put a few games on FS2," or "we will put some games on FX," or whatever, if the check is bigger, they will do what they need to do. Until you find a memo from Delaney stating otherwise, you need to stop assuming your opinion is a fact, then passing it off to try and prove your point. You have been saying this for two years, and it is no more true now then it was then.

You do understand that
ESPNU is in 73 million homes
ESPNews is in 71 million homes
FS2 is in 48 million homes(with not all of them in HD)

You are drunk if you really think that the Big Ten would willingly sign a contract putting even 1 game on FS2. The Big Ten has the leverage. They aren't going to be morons and blindly take Fox. Especially with the games they tried to play with the Pac 12- everything with Fox would be spelled out.....

I understand it fully. Do you understand that ESPN News delivering ratings lower than a test pattern, and their games still being on there, underminds your statement, that you are passing off as fact, and equates it as complete horsesh!t? Until you realize you don't know every ******* thing, you will not be able to have a civil discussion.

(02-02-2016 01:49 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 01:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 01:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Something like 15 games on Big Fox, 15 games on FS1, 10 games on NBC or CBS is what I expect. Unless ESPN stays in the game, in which case a 50-50 Fox-ESPN split.

ESPN will get at least a minimal package - e.g., one ESPN/ESPN2 game on Saturday plus some basketball. Big Ten won't leave ESPN empty-handed and risk getting the "NHL treatment" on ESPN.

If it's up to Bristol and the Big Ten, that happens. The question is, does Disney effectively stop ESPN from bidding at all.

Two to three years ago, I think ESPN throws $10M at CUSA just to have it. They didn't. Times are changing.

The issue is to put out a package to make those who want drive up the price. If ESPN and Fox are content with half of the Big Ten package, and they sell two packages, there is nothing to drive up the price. We are not talking about a difference of $1 million per year, we are talking about the difference between making a combined $200 million per year (twice what they make now), or potentially making $300 - $400 million per year. Now if we overestimate how badly they want it, that is one thing. But if they offer two packages, and only have two bidders, they will not get anywhere near as much money as they think they are, because ESPN and Fox are not going to bid against themselves. So you have to make them bid against each other (or convince someone else to get involved).

As I said, I have no doubts The Big Ten would much prefer to stay on ESPN. I don't even know if they care that much to go to Fox at all (meaning they would be just as happy is ESPN bought all the rights). But my contention is that in order to maximize their revenue, they probably won't have a choice in the matter. Or they will make substantially less - again neither Fox or ESPN are going to pay more than they feel they have to, and in the scenario of a split package, the only thing that would drive up the price is if one or the other, decided they HAD to have both, but did not succeed.

corbett, the way around the problem you're presenting is that you publish (or let it be known to the bidders) that there's a price floor.

IE, both bidders can collude to underbid ... but then neither gets it.

(02-02-2016 02:22 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  I understand it fully. Do you understand that ESPN News delivering ratings lower than a test pattern, and their games still being on there, underminds your statement, that you are passing off as fact, and equates it as complete horsesh!t? Until you realize you don't know every ******* thing, you will not be able to have a civil discussion.

I think you're way over-rating the importance of the Big Ten agreeing to have a couple of games on ESPNews this year. If I remember right, weren't the ESPNews games something like Rutgers vs FCS, on a Saturday where BTN was already carrying two games at the same time?


We've been googling this stuff now for 5 years trying to read the tea leaves of the old New Big East contract. We know that these contracts often (but not always) have clauses that specify how many games on what networks and how many weeknights and such. Yes, sometimes the deal is a straight "Here's a check, now I own everything" setup, but I don't think the Big TEn is going to do that.

IF you were Delaney, would you agree to, say, 15 football games on Big Fox, 15 on FS1 and 10 on FS2?

Or would you tell Fox to go find a partner who can put those 10 games on a real network? (CBS-OTA, NBC-OTA, USA, TBS/TNT

If you're comfortable with your games on USA, TBS or TNT ... why not FX?

Wedge, what are you referring to by the NHL treatment?

Are you saying that ESPN would never show B1G highlights on SportsCenter? ..... So?? What would that have anything to do with the actual ratings of the actual games? That's what would matter.

(02-02-2016 02:29 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 01:49 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 01:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 01:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Something like 15 games on Big Fox, 15 games on FS1, 10 games on NBC or CBS is what I expect. Unless ESPN stays in the game, in which case a 50-50 Fox-ESPN split.

ESPN will get at least a minimal package - e.g., one ESPN/ESPN2 game on Saturday plus some basketball. Big Ten won't leave ESPN empty-handed and risk getting the "NHL treatment" on ESPN.

If it's up to Bristol and the Big Ten, that happens. The question is, does Disney effectively stop ESPN from bidding at all.

Two to three years ago, I think ESPN throws $10M at CUSA just to have it. They didn't. Times are changing.

The issue is to put out a package to make those who want drive up the price. If ESPN and Fox are content with half of the Big Ten package, and they sell two packages, there is nothing to drive up the price. We are not talking about a difference of $1 million per year, we are talking about the difference between making a combined $200 million per year (twice what they make now), or potentially making $300 - $400 million per year. Now if we overestimate how badly they want it, that is one thing. But if they offer two packages, and only have two bidders, they will not get anywhere near as much money as they think they are, because ESPN and Fox are not going to bid against themselves. So you have to make them bid against each other (or convince someone else to get involved).

As I said, I have no doubts The Big Ten would much prefer to stay on ESPN. I don't even know if they care that much to go to Fox at all (meaning they would be just as happy is ESPN bought all the rights). But my contention is that in order to maximize their revenue, they probably won't have a choice in the matter. Or they will make substantially less - again neither Fox or ESPN are going to pay more than they feel they have to, and in the scenario of a split package, the only thing that would drive up the price is if one or the other, decided they HAD to have both, but did not succeed.

I don't think it's going to be a one-step, sealed bid process. (I'm assuming that, since in 2007 the Big Ten wasn't happy with the deal, they got the ESPN matching language stripped out.)

Delaney is going to start with bidding out the whole package, because otherwise he risks ESPN and Fox colluding, either actively or passively. He's going to get a sketch of what ballpark dollars, and what sort of exposure package ESPN is considering and what sort of package Fox is thinking.

That's where Delaney tells Fox that the FS2 part of the plan is not an option and to figure something else out. (Or Delaney is blown away by the Fox dollar amount.)

(Very likely, in these talks, both ESPN and Fox will present Delaney with their plans to split the package. But Delaney is going to--strike that, should--request offer outlines for the whole package, and use those offers as a basis for negotiating or splitting the package.)

(02-02-2016 02:46 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  If you're comfortable with your games on USA, TBS or TNT ... why not FX?

Y'know I didn't 100% think that through. I assumed FX had a smaller audience. Googling....in 2014, FX had 1.4M primetime viewers on average, which is less than USA (2.1M), TNT (2M) or TBS (1.8), but not by that much.

So maybe FX is an option. Or maybe it's ESPN/OTA or bust.

And if both think they're going to underbid ... then we walk. All games on BTN.

See how they smoke that in their pipes!

Well, that number would go way up if people had something worth watching on that channel!