Trump 27
Cruz 25
Rubio 21

Clinton 54
Sanders 44

Cruz, Rubio, and Clinton overperform while Trump and Sanders underperform. Turnout matters.

I think the GOP 3-way race will be as tight as you say.

Sanders was polling 49-44 there recently over Clinton. I think Clinton does either tie it up or moves ahead by a few points, as turnout matters as you say, but I can't see a 10-point victory.

My predictions: Cruz wins on GOP side due to a strong evangelical turnout, and on the Dem side I predict Sanders pulls out a win. Clinton negatives are mounting.

Trump and Sanders win. Which is hilarious.

I'm thinking Cruz and Clinton. Those excited non-regular voters supporting Sanders & Trump don't show up in full force today.

(02-01-2016 09:22 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  Trump and Sanders win. Which is hilarious.

I believe these 2 will ultimately win their respective party primaries. However, given the makeup of Iowa, IMHO it's Ted Cruz's ideal demographic makeup of voters that would most align with his views.

The caucus rules are kind of arcane, so it could just be Cruz/Trump/Rubio way ahead in the Republicans, but Carson and Paul might do well, so 1. Cruz by about 5 points; 2. Trump; big gap- 3T. Carson; 3T. Rubio; 5. Paul; 6. Bush; rest less than two %

Sanders by about 10 points over Clinton.

(02-01-2016 09:29 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-01-2016 09:22 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  Trump and Sanders win. Which is hilarious.

I believe these 2 will ultimately win their respective party primaries. However, given the makeup of Iowa, IMHO it's Ted Cruz's ideal demographic makeup of voters that would most align with his views.

I think so as well, but I think the Trumpians will get to the polls and the Sanders voters can probably coax their parents into put the snow tires on the family truckster and heading out.

I think Cruz and Sanders get better turnout among their voters.

I think Clinton will have a better turnout machine than Sanders. Sanders relies too much on unreliable young voters. I think Cruz and Rubio will have better turnout than Trump, but I don't think it will be enough.

I have to mimic what everyone's saying and agree that turnout will be a deciding factor. If Sanders campaign can GOTV big time, he might be able to edge out Hillary in this one.

However, I'm predicting Hillary and Trump winning Iowa.

I think Bernie pulls an Iowa upset. Hilldawg's stock is trending down.

I think Trump wins, Cruz right behind, and then Rubio immediately behind both of them. 3-8 percent separates Trump, Cruz, and Rubio.

Wild card: Look for Rand Paul to be above 7%.

Clinton and Rubio. Never underestimate the will/ability of the party hacks to skew results (see Ron Paul in Nevada a couple of cycles back).

(02-01-2016 10:38 AM)Murray007 Wrote:  I think Bernie pulls an Iowa upset. Hilldawg's stock is trending down.

The odds makers would suggest it is Bernie's stock that is trending down. He has gone from a 6/4 underdog earlier this week to nearly 3/1 currently, 11/4 to be exact.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-p...owa-caucus

(02-01-2016 10:43 AM)Kronke Wrote:  

(02-01-2016 10:38 AM)Murray007 Wrote:  I think Bernie pulls an Iowa upset. Hilldawg's stock is trending down.

The odds makers would suggest it is Bernie's stock that is trending down. He has gone from a 6/4 underdog earlier this week to nearly 3/1 currently, 11/4 to be exact.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-p...owa-caucus

This is a great example of why I don't bet and how I make terrible predictions!

What's the weather prediction in Iowa tonight? That could be a factor too.

I think Sanders and Trump squeak out wins. But if Rubio (or Cruz) does better than expected, that will help their momentum the rest of the month. If Clinton wins tonight, it's over for Bernie. I don't think any Republicans get out until after New Hampshire.

(02-01-2016 10:51 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  What's the weather prediction in Iowa tonight? That could be a factor too.

I think Sanders and Trump squeak out wins. But if Rubio (or Cruz) does better than expected, that will help their momentum the rest of the month. If Clinton wins tonight, it's over for Bernie. I don't think any Republicans get out until after New Hampshire.

You get 3 tickets out of Iowa. Whatever the order, that will most likely be Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. The others may stay in through New Hampshire, but unless Rubio severely underperforms tonight, I think he puts Bush, Kasich, and Christie away. But I think Rubio has a better chance of pulling out a 1st or 2nd than dropping to 4th.

I want it to be Trump but it is likely to be close.

(02-01-2016 10:51 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  What's the weather prediction in Iowa tonight? That could be a factor too.

I think Sanders and Trump squeak out wins. But if Rubio (or Cruz) does better than expected, that will help their momentum the rest of the month. If Clinton wins tonight, it's over for Bernie. I don't think any Republicans get out until after New Hampshire.

Huckabee and Santorum give it up after Iowa. Paul may as well if he does poorly. Gilmore might as well-he might get 0 votes. The rest carry on to NH no matter what.

(02-01-2016 10:51 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  What's the weather prediction in Iowa tonight? That could be a factor too.

I think Sanders and Trump squeak out wins. But if Rubio (or Cruz) does better than expected, that will help their momentum the rest of the month. If Clinton wins tonight, it's over for Bernie. I don't think any Republicans get out until after New Hampshire.

I heard on the radio that a lot of Iowa is under winter storm or blizzard warnings, thier take was that this would help Clinton/ Cruz because sanders and trump would be relying on first time caucus goers to a greater extent