With 10 games left, here is what we have:

W&M twice
UNCW twice
Hofstra home
NU home
Towson Away
Charleston Away
Drexel Home
Delaware Home

Delaware, Drexel, Charleston, Towson & NU all appear to be wins to me, with @ Towson and NU appearing to be the toughest. That gives us 5 wins.

If we only get 2 of the 5 against W&M, UNCW & Hofstra, that gives us 7-3, ending up 13-5.

Of the 5 games against the top 3, its possible we go 3-2 or even 4-1. I am not convinced of UNCW yet. their 6 wins - 2 Delaware, 2 Drexel, 1- Elon & 1 W&M. 5 of their wins are against the bottom of the CAA. Hofstra @ home and W&M away will be our toughest games.

Not trying to put a hex, jinx or pressure on this team, but I believe 13-5 is the floor.

Thursday night is going to tell us a lot.

6-4 over the next ten regular season games:

W&M twice - Split
UNCW twice - Split
Hofstra home - Loss
NU home - Loss
Towson Away - Win
Charleston Away - Win
Drexel Home - Win
Delaware Home - Win

(01-25-2016 01:05 PM)JMU Wrote:  6-4 over the next ten regular season games:

W&M twice - Split
UNCW twice - Split
Hofstra home - Loss
NU home - Loss
Towson Away - Win
Charleston Away - Win
Drexel Home - Win
Delaware Home - Win

so we go on the road and beat both Hofstra and NU, and we lose both at home. I realize we have played better on the road, I still dont think we lose both. In addition, NU doesn't appear to be as good as we thought. They have 4 wins, Delaware 2x, Elon and UNCW. They have lost to every top team, W&M, JMU, Hofstra and Towson.

I think Towson away is a tougher game than NU at home.

Dukes crush in all games

(01-25-2016 01:36 PM)PGJMU Wrote:  

(01-25-2016 01:05 PM)JMU Wrote:  6-4 over the next ten regular season games:

W&M twice - Split
UNCW twice - Split
Hofstra home - Loss
NU home - Loss
Towson Away - Win
Charleston Away - Win
Drexel Home - Win
Delaware Home - Win

so we go on the road and beat both Hofstra and NU, and we lose both at home. I realize we have played better on the road, I still dont think we lose both. In addition, NU doesn't appear to be as good as we thought. They have 4 wins, Delaware 2x, Elon and UNCW. They have lost to every top team, W&M, JMU, Hofstra and Towson.

I think Towson away is a tougher game than NU at home.

Agree, about Towson. Almost put a loss at Towson and a win at home with NU. I should also add that I think 6-4 is the minimum.

(01-25-2016 01:51 PM)JMU Wrote:  

(01-25-2016 01:36 PM)PGJMU Wrote:  

(01-25-2016 01:05 PM)JMU Wrote:  6-4 over the next ten regular season games:

W&M twice - Split
UNCW twice - Split
Hofstra home - Loss
NU home - Loss
Towson Away - Win
Charleston Away - Win
Drexel Home - Win
Delaware Home - Win

so we go on the road and beat both Hofstra and NU, and we lose both at home. I realize we have played better on the road, I still dont think we lose both. In addition, NU doesn't appear to be as good as we thought. They have 4 wins, Delaware 2x, Elon and UNCW. They have lost to every top team, W&M, JMU, Hofstra and Towson.

I think Towson away is a tougher game than NU at home.

Agree, about Towson. Almost put a loss at Towson and a win at home with NU. I should also add that I think 6-4 is the minimum.

I disagree with this! We are playing the BOMB. As Marlowe said JUICE it up. We have a whole bench that can come in and score. Just be at the game and cheer them on!

NE at home should be a win, but they are better than that Towson loss showed. NE played without Ford that game, who should be back shortly. They don't have much depth either so it was a big handicap.

Here is Kenpom's projections rest of way. If Ford is healthy NE will almost certainly be less than 8 point spread (but yes, Towson on road will be tougher easily). CofC is playing pretty well without Barry but I think they have downside at current 127th rating.

Using JMU at a 70th in country rating 13-5 looks like a pretty good projection, and one that could win the league.


Thu Jan 28 97 UNC Wilmington W, 77-71 70 73% Home ×
Sun Jan 31 94 William & Mary L, 72-70 66 41% Away ×
Thu Feb 4 241 Drexel W, 67-60 64 77% Away ×
Sun Feb 7 76 Hofstra W, 76-71 68 67% Home ×
Thu Feb 11 123 College of Charleston W, 62-61 62 51% Away ×
Sat Feb 13 97 UNC Wilmington L, 75-73 70 43% Away ×
Thu Feb 18 127 Northeastern W, 72-64 65 79% Home ×
Sat Feb 20 264 Delaware W, 77-61 65 94% Home ×
Thu Feb 25 154 Towson W, 66-64 64 58% Away ×
Sat Feb 27 94 William & Mary W, 74-68 66 71% Home ×
Projected record: 23-8 13-5

RPI forecast also has Dukes finishing at 13-5 in CAA, meaning 7-3 down the stretch.

It's either at-large or we have to win the CAA tournament. Those are the two goals.

Win the CAA tournament and enjoy selection Sunday

Win out and lose in the Finals, have a shot on Section Sunday

Lose one down the stretch, and lose in CAA finals - there will be a lot of praying.

Obviously winning the CAA tourney is easiest way, but I'm not ruling out winning 9 or 10 down the stretch.

No CAA team will get an at-large until the media says we will. They don't perceive us as a two-bid league and thus we aren't.
Winning the CAA tournament is the only path to the NCAA tournament.

(01-25-2016 07:01 PM)Potomac Wrote:  No CAA team will get an at-large until the media says we will. They don't perceive us as a two-bid league and thus we aren't.
Winning the CAA tournament is the only path to the NCAA tournament.

If we won 17 in a row we be getting more than a handful of votes.

Not saying it's likely, but it is possible.

11-7
12-6
13-5
14-4

All = the same thing. We would not have not prayer other than winning the CAA tourny. Seeding would not make much difference between the four either.

Now if we win the regular season CAA, I believe we are an auto-bid to the NIT if we don't win the CAA tourny.

(01-25-2016 07:59 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(01-25-2016 07:01 PM)Potomac Wrote:  No CAA team will get an at-large until the media says we will. They don't perceive us as a two-bid league and thus we aren't.
Winning the CAA tournament is the only path to the NCAA tournament.

If we won 17 in a row we be getting more than a handful of votes.

Not saying it's likely, but it is possible.

11-7
12-6
13-5
14-4

All = the same thing. We would not have not prayer other than winning the CAA tourny. Seeding would not make much difference between the four either.

Now if we win the regular season CAA, I believe we are an auto-bid to the NIT if we don't win the CAA tourny.

a 28-6 JMU team (if magic happened and the team won out won its first two and lost in the CAA finals) would get in the NCAA regardless of how the media views the CAA. By every metric the team would meet the criteria for inclusion- last 10 games, last 15 games, road record ( I think we would technically be undefeated on the road since the WVU game was neutral site as is the CAA Tourny).

Highly, highly unlikely but we can all dream.

1st in the conference with a very good record will still likely require JMU to win 3 in Baltimore however as the top seed we would like play the Delaware Drexel winner in round 1 and my guess is the winner of UNCW Northeastern in game 2. I think we'd avoid Hofstra or W&M until the championship game and that's where the Seahawk poster may be right and the lack of depth may catch up with the Pride.

One game at a time is all that matters. This team just needs to focus on the game Thursday and not look beyond. They are good enough to win the CAA. I believe their depth of talent and team chemistry are a big reason why they are 16-5 right now.

I just saw one of the Hofstra players is out for the rest of the season. That should make our home game with them easier.

RPI Forcast gives you a .97% chance of winning out and that would place you around 37th in the RPI if won out. It would be an interesting case as you would almost most certainly have no Top 50 wins. Hard to make dance without quality wins. Would have romped through a pretty strong CAA however, but no elite wins. Much like Drexel a few years back, but now tourny has expanded a few spots.

(01-26-2016 08:33 AM)GoJMUDukes Wrote:  I just saw one of the Hofstra players is out for the rest of the season. That should make our home game with them easier.

Who and where did you see this?

(01-26-2016 09:44 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(01-26-2016 08:33 AM)GoJMUDukes Wrote:  I just saw one of the Hofstra players is out for the rest of the season. That should make our home game with them easier.

Who and where did you see this?

Malik Nicols?

http://www.flyingdutchmenfans.com/viewto...32d92730fd

(01-26-2016 09:50 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(01-26-2016 09:44 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(01-26-2016 08:33 AM)GoJMUDukes Wrote:  I just saw one of the Hofstra players is out for the rest of the season. That should make our home game with them easier.

Who and where did you see this?

Malik Nicols?

http://www.flyingdutchmenfans.com/viewto...32d92730fd

Not as big a loss as losing a starter but I liked his game off the bench- gave them some toughness and defense but there were games where he didn't play much at all (the JMU game was one of these). They didn't depend on him for scoring either. They will have plenty of time to have someone else enter Mihalich's short rotation to see if they can fill his role.

That is a big loss for the tournament because they were super thin to begin with. Gonna be hard to win 3 in 3 with 5 guys.

(01-26-2016 09:44 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(01-26-2016 08:33 AM)GoJMUDukes Wrote:  I just saw one of the Hofstra players is out for the rest of the season. That should make our home game with them easier.

Who and where did you see this?

I saw it on the twitter connected with their message board.
https://twitter.com/flyingdutchfans