Article

I'll just say this. Any league that associates with Notre Dame seems to be a target of destabilization attempts.

No doubt the big 10/sec want to raid the ACC and both leagues f'd over the ACC by not allowing their rule change. I don't think any of the ACC targets, the school's in VA and NC have any interest in joining the big 10/sec no matter the amount of money for spots 15 and 16. What could cause some movement would be for the big 10 or sec to offer 4 spots to the pool of UVA, V tech, UNC, Duke and NC STAte to jump to 18. Or for the big 10/sec to target other ACC school's. I think the big 10/sec could pull FSU which might destabilize the ACC. I think that would be a great pick up for the big 10 but a lousy pickup for the SEC.

That is a long read. Cliff notes please.

Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

(01-24-2016 11:47 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

Makes for interesting reads though, doesn't it?

(01-24-2016 11:47 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

He had to, I don't run a blog.

(01-24-2016 11:47 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

Yes, but he is correct about one thing: the B1G and ACC do have conflicting interests. The obvious one is that both seek control of market share in the northeast corridor.

Second, if the B1G expands again, while the most easy to get candidates are in the Big 12 (e.g., Kansas, Iowa State), the most desirable candidates are in the ACC. So a weak ACC is good for the B1G because it makes it more likely that ACC schools it approaches will be amenable to switching, as Maryland was.

Those are pretty large bases for conflict.

(01-24-2016 12:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(01-24-2016 11:47 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

He had to, I don't run a blog.

You out to set up a blog. I'm sure it would be popular among conference realignment aficionados and everyone else.

(01-24-2016 01:19 PM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote:  

(01-24-2016 12:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(01-24-2016 11:47 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

He had to, I don't run a blog.

You out to set up a blog. I'm sure it would be popular among conference realignment aficionados and everyone else.

Terps!

(01-24-2016 11:47 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Whoever the writer is for that site is someone who is a member of this board. Every theory that was presented is one that I have read on this board.

It's an eco-friendly article - instead of wasting energy coming up with new ideas, he recycled old ones gathering dust in the garage. Way to go green, man!

It was long, but well written and well thought out. I think it is also an accurate representation of the present landscape.

There is, however, one error in perception that being a feud between the Big 10 and the ACC. A more accurate statement given the history of the formation of the BTN is that there has been a running feud between Delany and ESPN who just happens to own 100% of the rights to the ACC.

A decade, give or take a year or two, ago when the Big 10 was seeking a new ESPN contract the Mouse offered Delany a low ball figure for the Big 10 rights. Delany balked and the ESPN representative told him if he didn't like the offer to form his own network. Delany did and, in spite of what many might think my feelings are toward the Big 10, he became a hero of mine with that decision.

The fallout has been an ongoing war with ESPN (a war to be sure that still included a business relationship of convenience between the two). When the Big 10 formed the network they did so with a full understanding that the endeavor would lead them into the population centers of the Northeast.

ESPN's reaction was to add all of the possible targets for the new Network to the only conference in proximity and the only one where they held 100% of the rights. It was obvious that the money involved would not stop raids on the Big East so the ACC became the repository of some of the more desirable expansion options for a Big 10 move into that region.

The SEC does share a loose alliance based upon similar objectives with the Big 10. And while the SEC has benefited greatly from its association with ESPN it is not lost on us that over the last twenty years ESPN has also parked in the ACC schools in the Southeast that kept us from consolidating our footprint and therefore strengthening our leverage for Southeastern football content.

So in short the ACC is the parking lot for programs who have more value to the Big 10 and SEC than they might even have to the ACC, especially its old core schools.

Another thing the writer omits is that the cable model that paid for potential viewers in states where a conference had members was a tool used to break up the leverage that schools in large areas had over the network.

Prying A&M out of the Big 12 was such a move and it has weakened the position of Texas. Attempting a deal with the SEC that would offer the ACC key brands to expand, but would cost them N.C. State and Virginia Tech was another attempt to break up the voting strength of the six schools in the beltway states. Denying expansion candidates to the PAC is another form of this same strategy. Only with the case of the PAC withholding brands and markets curtails the desire of anyone to offer full carriage of the PACN. It does however allow FOX and ESPN to cherry pick the games they want to air from their leased rights.

You see what started as a simple feud with Delany has become a struggle for the complete takeover of NCAA Division I football as a product to exploit for commercial value.

In 2010 on another site (a Georgia site that no longer exists) I had a running argument (a friendly one) with their blog writer about the true motives behind the footprint model. I favored taking brands then over markets. I've stated as much in posts here on both the SEC and this board. I told folks then that it was only designed to break up the power coalitions that had held regions and conferences together and that this was the sole purpose of this model which would be switched when the goals were achieved for the networks. Those goals were to destabilize those coalitions. I stated at the time that a "saturation model" would be forthcoming. A Saturation model would pay the conferences for the actual % of viewers in a state where multiple conferences held interests.

So the carrot was to pay everyone for the whole state for one contract period (which is purposeful over payment as bait to get the fragmenting of state markets such as Texas accomplished) and then in the second contract to switch to actually paying them for just who watches which would cut out the expensive overhead of the networks and reduce value to the conferences unless they would concede other points necessary to enhance their commercial value. So extra conference games, playing all P5 schedules, and playing more brands are those concessions to keep the increased pay. That and further product placement which is what we call realignment.

ESPN had plans for the ACC. Those plans met with resistance from the old core schools who realized what was happening to them. Those plans may now have changed. But understand this. You can substitute the term "streaming" for what I once called a market saturation plan. The bait and switch is being completed.

Once again corporate America is changing what we love.

It is not Jim Delany, who lost status in my eyes when he sold out to FOX to obtain carriage, that is the villain. It is not Mike Slive either. Both of those guys were hired because they knew the business of sports rights contracts and understood the motivations of networks. The villains behind realignment are mostly ESPN and then FOX. They are smart and solid businesses that recognized an opportunity and seized it, particularly ESPN. They baited conferences into further realignment to realize added profits from engaged regions of advertising.

Now we are entering the restructuring phase of realignment. Make college football make sense to the public in a believable and acceptable way so that it can become more of an institution for the masses, rather than just for alumni. 4 relatively symmetrical conferences that engage the most regions of the nation are a way to accomplish that goal.

While I don't think ESPN originally planned to broker out the ACC, I do think they planned to control the most valuable product totally under their rights until the SEC and Big 10 had been reshaped and in ways that would prove profitable to ESPN. Perhaps the Big 12 was spared to gain control of the PAC. We'll see.

The other objective has been the isolation and capture of one school, Notre Dame. This is why I admire them for remaining obstructionists in this endeavor even though I have no particular love of the Irish. In that regard Terry D's school also receives my admiration for being stubbornly and unapologetically independent. I wish all of us still had that bent. JR

(01-24-2016 02:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  So in short the ACC is the parking lot

In a sense, yeah. So is the Big 12. ESPN wants to keep any one conference from getting too much leverage. That's why Texas is still in the Big 12. Even more so, why LHN exists and pays UT so much.

So who's the 4th JR? We know the PAC, SEC & the B1G will survive but who will be the 4th? ACC? Big 12? A new conference? Isn't likely that Texas, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson & possibly ND end up together?

(01-24-2016 02:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  You see what started as a simple feud with Delany has become a struggle for the complete takeover of NCAA Division I football as a product to exploit for commercial value.

In 2010 on another site (a Georgia site that no longer exists) I had a running argument (a friendly one) with their blog writer about the true motives behind the footprint model. I favored taking brands then over markets. I've stated as much in posts here on both the SEC and this board. I told folks then that it was only designed to break up the power coalitions that had held regions and conferences together and that this was the sole purpose of this model which would be switched when the goals were achieved for the networks. Those goals were to destabilize those coalitions. I stated at the time that a "saturation model" would be forthcoming. A Saturation model would pay the conferences for the actual % of viewers in a state where multiple conferences held interests.

So the carrot was to pay everyone for the whole state for one contract period (which is purposeful over payment as bait to get the fragmenting of state markets such as Texas accomplished) and then in the second contract to switch to actually paying them for just who watches which would cut out the expensive overhead of the networks and reduce value to the conferences unless they would concede other points necessary to enhance their commercial value. So extra conference games, playing all P5 schedules, and playing more brands are those concessions to keep the increased pay. That and further product placement which is what we call realignment.

ESPN had plans for the ACC. Those plans met with resistance from the old core schools who realized what was happening to them. Those plans may now have changed. But understand this. You can substitute the term "streaming" for what I once called a market saturation plan. The bait and switch is being completed.

I remember you discussing these things on Mr. SEC's site. I wish Pennington was still at it because he was well connected and unbiased. I thoroughly enjoyed reading his analysis.

The conventional wisdom has been that 4 strong conferences would emerge from all this chaos. I see the reasoning, but I'm not sure I see the path that would allow it to happen.

Several ACC properties are more valuable in other leagues. Same with the Big 12. While I could see the Big 12 surviving and being attractive to some pretty good brands in an albeit less than ideal world, I don't see most of those brands heading that way if indeed streaming takes over and content brands become more valuable to the SEC. Something would have to give there.

Many say UNC, Duke, UVA, and GT to the B1G although I'm not sure any of those schools would really be enthused about that. They also say FSU, Clemson, NC State, and VT to the SEC and I think, by contrast, most of those schools would be warm to that although I could see VT being hesitant.

But then what? UT, OU, and KU are still carrying the Big 12 at that point. The best brands they have to strengthen themselves would be Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, and the like. Nothing against those schools, but they don't really solve the Big 12's problems...chief among them the selfishness of UT. OU is probably still looking to leave in that scenario although I could be wrong. If OU is truly available then I have a hard time seeing both the B1G and the SEC turning them down. If content matters the most then there aren't very many that bring more content than OU. KU, OSU, ISU, WVU...there are several schools worth taking if OU is on the line.

I could see UT and company convincing the PAC to sell their network to ESPN in exchange for a promise to come on board. A PAC network with the likes of UT, OU, KU, and a few more in the Central Time zone combined with the power of ESPN would probably make the whole thing much more profitable.

Either way, we basically have 3 strong leagues left if things break in any way similar to this.

Tide in my opinion a balanced P4 can only develop if FSU & Clemson joined up with Texas & Oklahoma. Sprinkle in ND & that's a strong nucleus. Can you do it with 4 of those 5? Yes, I think so but how? Perhaps by putting Texas & Missouri in the B1G & sending NC, Duke & Virginia to the SEC. This would still leave to many leftover from the Big 12 & ACC for a merger so perhaps they use the formation of a new conference to leave some out for a geographical balance.

Oklahoma, Okl State, Kansas, TCU, Baylor, ND, Pittsburgh, Iowa State

FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NC State, WV, Louisville, Miami

This would leave out TT, Kansas State, Syracuse, BC & WF. This saves the networks over $100 million a year. (A conservative $20 million x 5 from TV contract)

(01-24-2016 08:49 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Tide in my opinion a balanced P4 can only develop if FSU & Clemson joined up with Texas & Oklahoma. Sprinkle in ND & that's a strong nucleus. Can you do it with 4 of those 5? Yes, I think so but how? Perhaps by putting Texas & Missouri in the B1G & sending NC, Duke & Virginia to the SEC. This would still leave to many leftover from the Big 12 & ACC for a merger so perhaps they use the formation of a new conference to leave some out for a geographical balance.

Oklahoma, Okl State, Kansas, TCU, Baylor, ND, Pittsburgh, Iowa State

FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NC State, WV, Louisville, Miami

This would leave out TT, Kansas State, Syracuse, BC & WF. This saves the networks over $100 million a year. (A conservative $20 million x 5 from TV contract)

Well, it wouldn't quite save them that much. They will have to up the payments to the new conference in order to keep it competitive with the B1G and the SEC. If the networks don't do that then the most valuable programs have incentive to go elsewhere instead of trying to make the new league work.

My problem with all the brokering scenarios is I've yet to see evidence that that sort of massive multi-party cooperation is possible when it comes to realignment. Everyone is in it for themselves and to get the best deal they can get. At least, that is what I've seen thus far.

(01-24-2016 10:38 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-24-2016 08:49 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Tide in my opinion a balanced P4 can only develop if FSU & Clemson joined up with Texas & Oklahoma. Sprinkle in ND & that's a strong nucleus. Can you do it with 4 of those 5? Yes, I think so but how? Perhaps by putting Texas & Missouri in the B1G & sending NC, Duke & Virginia to the SEC. This would still leave to many leftover from the Big 12 & ACC for a merger so perhaps they use the formation of a new conference to leave some out for a geographical balance.

Oklahoma, Okl State, Kansas, TCU, Baylor, ND, Pittsburgh, Iowa State

FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NC State, WV, Louisville, Miami

This would leave out TT, Kansas State, Syracuse, BC & WF. This saves the networks over $100 million a year. (A conservative $20 million x 5 from TV contract)

Well, it wouldn't quite save them that much. They will have to up the payments to the new conference in order to keep it competitive with the B1G and the SEC. If the networks don't do that then the most valuable programs have incentive to go elsewhere instead of trying to make the new league work.

My problem with all the brokering scenarios is I've yet to see evidence that that sort of massive multi-party cooperation is possible when it comes to realignment. Everyone is in it for themselves and to get the best deal they can get. At least, that is what I've seen thus far.

Admittedly I haven't done the math but in this scenario you are only moving 3 programs up to the SEC revenue level & 1 (Texas) up to the B1G level. The new conference only needs to be within 80-85% of the B1G/SEC & it would have a network.

There would be 7 Big 12 schools getting roughly a $10 million raise & 8 ACC programs getting roughly a $15 million raise. Not including Notre Dame who is getting a bulk of their pay from NBC. So that's roughly $70 million for the B12 programs & roughly $120 million for the ACC programs. Add in another $45 million roughly for moving NC, Duke & Virginia up to the SEC pay. That's roughly about a $235 million increase. Take away the roughly $100 million saved by dropping 5 teams out & that gives you roughly $135 million. Toss in another $25 million for ND since they are already getting approximately $5 million from the ACC, for a total of about $160 million. That's approximately $10 million averaged out among the 16 teams in the new conference, that's approximately what they would be making off of the new conference network. That's roughly even money for ESPN/Fox plus they would have the additional revenue from the network for the new conference. Look about right?

You would have 3 16 team conferences plus the PAC 12. The CFP becomes a champ only & no one is left out. The LHN goes away so ESPN is able to cut their losses there as well. That's also 5 less mouths to feed off of the CFP shares, not much but a small bump up. The only possible brokering needed would be to send Missouri to the B1G.

(01-25-2016 12:01 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Admittedly I haven't done the math but in this scenario you are only moving 3 programs up to the SEC revenue level & 1 (Texas) up to the B1G level. The new conference only needs to be within 80-85% of the B1G/SEC & it would have a network.

There would be 7 Big 12 schools getting roughly a $10 million raise & 8 ACC programs getting roughly a $15 million raise. Not including Notre Dame who is getting a bulk of their pay from NBC. So that's roughly $70 million for the B12 programs & roughly $120 million for the ACC programs. Add in another $45 million roughly for moving NC, Duke & Virginia up to the SEC pay. That's roughly about a $235 million increase. Take away the roughly $100 million saved by dropping 5 teams out & that gives you roughly $135 million. Toss in another $25 million for ND since they are already getting approximately $5 million from the ACC, for a total of about $160 million. That's approximately $10 million averaged out among the 16 teams in the new conference, that's approximately what they would be making off of the new conference network. That's roughly even money for ESPN/Fox plus they would have the additional revenue from the network for the new conference. Look about right?

Not sure. I was a horrible math student back in the day. LOL!

If you're right though that's around a $160M increase in payouts if you don't count revenue from a new conference network to offset it. It might be revenue neutral, but I don't think it would actually save them any money.

(01-25-2016 12:01 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  You would have 3 16 team conferences plus the PAC 12. The CFP becomes a champ only & no one is left out. The LHN goes away so ESPN is able to cut their losses there as well. That's also 5 less mouths to feed off of the CFP shares, not much but a small bump up. The only possible brokering needed would be to send Missouri to the B1G.

That's actually one of my issues here. I don't think anyone is leaving the SEC, B1G, or PAC. The leagues are too strong and prosperous to lose members.

I'm not sure UNC and company would actually join the SEC. I'm not sure they would join the B1G either for that matter. I'm not sure they even know what they will do until the issue is forced upon them.

(01-24-2016 08:49 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Tide in my opinion a balanced P4 can only develop if FSU & Clemson joined up with Texas & Oklahoma. Sprinkle in ND & that's a strong nucleus. Can you do it with 4 of those 5? Yes, I think so but how? Perhaps by putting Texas & Missouri in the B1G & sending NC, Duke & Virginia to the SEC. This would still leave to many leftover from the Big 12 & ACC for a merger so perhaps they use the formation of a new conference to leave some out for a geographical balance.

Oklahoma, Okl State, Kansas, TCU, Baylor, ND, Pittsburgh, Iowa State

FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NC State, WV, Louisville, Miami

This would leave out TT, Kansas State, Syracuse, BC & WF. This saves the networks over $100 million a year. (A conservative $20 million x 5 from TV contract)

Texas Tech won't be left out.

(01-25-2016 01:06 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-24-2016 08:49 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Tide in my opinion a balanced P4 can only develop if FSU & Clemson joined up with Texas & Oklahoma. Sprinkle in ND & that's a strong nucleus. Can you do it with 4 of those 5? Yes, I think so but how? Perhaps by putting Texas & Missouri in the B1G & sending NC, Duke & Virginia to the SEC. This would still leave to many leftover from the Big 12 & ACC for a merger so perhaps they use the formation of a new conference to leave some out for a geographical balance.

Oklahoma, Okl State, Kansas, TCU, Baylor, ND, Pittsburgh, Iowa State

FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NC State, WV, Louisville, Miami

This would leave out TT, Kansas State, Syracuse, BC & WF. This saves the networks over $100 million a year. (A conservative $20 million x 5 from TV contract)

Texas Tech won't be left out.

They could be switched with Baylor, TCU or Iowa State.