Chadd Scott broke down the financial numbers of the SEC's earnings for the 2014-2015 fiscal year while Clay Travis did some rough math to predict what could happen in the future with the conference and when.

The SEC distributed $527.7M to it's 14 members or $37.6M each. $55M came from CBS, $150M from ESPN and the rest from the SECN, Bowls and other revenue sources.

When discussing expansion candidates, Clay said members must earn the conference more money or they will not be added. He felt the CBS Tier 1 contract was severally undervalued at $55M/yr. I fell the right content addition schools would increase ESPN's Tier 2 contract. The easy money to calculate was the Tier 3 additions that would be generated from the SECN.

Clay Travis used an even $200M divided by 14 teams to generate $14.3M as the current T3/SECN payout per member. I'm assuming the SEC is getting an out of state rate of $0.25 from the candidate states for my example. Now the instate rate is $1.40. The additional revenue added between these two rates if a new SEC member is added from the following states were:
$22.1M for North Carolina
$19.3M for Virginia
$1.38M for full rate of DC
$600K for 1/2 rate of DC
$8.97M for Oklahoma

What's interesting is if the SEC added Virginia Tech and OU, their additional T3 revenue would coming in just below the current payout of $14.3M with $14.1M. I know there is a huge number of VT alums and fans that live and work in Washington, DC and that market could get an in-state rate or even a half of one and still work. That's 200k cable/sat households, pushing the additional money to $14.83M-$14.44M.

So adding one school per state and two separate states, the additional T3 earnings (current was $14.28M) using these combinations would be:

NC & VA: $21.4M-20.7M
NC & OK: $15.05M
VA & OK: $14.83M-14.1M

Now CBS' "undervalued" Tier 1 deal is up in 2023-2024. So I would expect that to be the time the SEC might actively expand again unless CBS and ESPN were willing to do a look-in with two new additions lined up.

For fun, West Virginia's 700,000 TV households adds an additional $4.83M or if the SECN doesn't exist at all in that state, an additonal $5.88M. WVU would have to be accredited with the Pittsburgh market to come realistically close to $14M+ to work out.

(01-23-2016 02:03 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  Chadd Scott broke down the financial numbers of the SEC's earnings for the 2014-2015 fiscal year while Clay Travis did some rough math to predict what could happen in the future with the conference and when.

The SEC distributed $527.7M to it's 14 members or $37.6M each. $55M came from CBS, $150M from ESPN and the rest from the SECN, Bowls and other revenue sources.

When discussing expansion candidates, Clay said members must earn the conference more money or they will not be added. He felt the CBS Tier 1 contract was severally undervalued at $55M/yr. I fell the right content addition schools would increase ESPN's Tier 2 contract. The easy money to calculate was the Tier 3 additions that would be generated from the SECN.

Clay Travis used an even $200M divided by 14 teams to generate $14.3M as the current T3/SECN payout per member. I'm assuming the SEC is getting an out of state rate of $0.25 from the candidate states for my example. Now the instate rate is $1.40. The additional revenue added between these two rates if a new SEC member is added from the following states were:
$22.1M for North Carolina
$19.3M for Virginia
$1.38M for full rate of DC
$600K for 1/2 rate of DC
$8.97M for Oklahoma

What's interesting is if the SEC added Virginia Tech and OU, their additional T3 revenue would coming in just below the current payout of $14.3M with $14.1M. I know there is a huge number of VT alums and fans that live and work in Washington, DC and that market could get an in-state rate or even a half of one and still work. That's 200k cable/sat households, pushing the additional money to $14.83M-$14.44M.

So adding one school per state and two separate states, the additional T3 earnings (current was $14.28M) using these combinations would be:

NC & VA: $21.4M-20.7M
NC & OK: $15.05M
VA & OK: $14.83M-14.1M

Now CBS' "undervalued" Tier 1 deal is up in 2023-2024. So I would expect that to be the time the SEC might actively expand again unless CBS and ESPN were willing to do a look-in with two new additions lined up.

For fun, West Virginia's 700,000 TV households adds an additional $4.83M or if the SECN doesn't exist at all in that state, an additonal $5.88M. WVU would have to be accredited with the Pittsburgh market to come realistically close to $14M+ to work out.

The problem here with Clay's bit is that it is still predicated on market value. These guys aren't looking at the must see content match ups that would spike the viewing numbers if Oklahoma, F.S.U., Clemson, Texas, or Virginia Tech were added.

North Carolina is great as a brand in that if their football improves they offer great cachet in hoops too.

I ask you what does Virginia bring??? Baseball. Those numbers are still based on a model of payout that is beginning to die.

If you want to see who adds it's still in the Numbers threads pinned at the top. Look for teams whose names people recognize, large athletic dept earnings, large attendance, and not listed but important, the market share they pull when televised. That's were the value is for content and for future payouts.