(01-09-2016 02:54 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind Is the total distain the selection committee has for the AAC. We have seen a team or two who deserved in get hosed ever year this conference has been in existence. Despite what the RPI, Kenpom or are record is there will be conference snobs making the selections.

Don't disagree with the selection committee bias but I believe we get more positive view compared to most other AAC teams (all metrics being fairly equal) based on our history of participation in the tournament and the fact that Mick is a respected coach and has run a clean program since he's been here. I know there are those who feel our tourney seeding or bracket matchups have not been fair but at this point I just want Mick and Company to get in the dance and go from there.

There is also the objective/subjective use of the metric "quality losses" vs. "bad losses." Obviously, it's always better to have a win against Butler, Iowa St. and SMU but 2 point losses to these schools should not be the deal breaker for entry into the tourney. Moving forward, however, the Cats have to avoid bad losses. I also believe our win at VCU will look better at the end of the year.

(01-09-2016 04:12 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-09-2016 02:54 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind Is the total distain the selection committee has for the AAC. We have seen a team or two who deserved in get hosed ever year this conference has been in existence. Despite what the RPI, Kenpom or are record is there will be conference snobs making the selections.

Don't disagree with the selection committee bias but I believe we get more positive view compared to most other AAC teams (all metrics being fairly equal) based on our history of participation in the tournament and the fact that Mick is a respected coach and has run a clean program since he has been here. I know there are those who feel our tourney seeding or bracket matchups have not been fair but at this point I just want Mick and Company to get in the dance and go from there.

There is also the objective/subjective use of the metric "quality losses" vs. "bad losses." Obviously, it's always better to have a win against Butler, Iowa St. and SMU but 2 point losses to these schools should not be the deal breaker for entry into the tourney. Moving forward, however, the Cats have to avoid bad losses. I also believe our win at VCU will look better at the end of the year.

VCU is going to be top 100. Both GW and VCU are suppose end around 50 in the RPI. 12-3 are 11-4 is the most likely finishes for this team.

(01-09-2016 08:24 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I hate polls where the answers aren't all inclusive. There should be a solidly in answer. I don't think any of the above will be correct.

I don't like resorts that are not all inclusive and that includes the Chica.

We can hope.

To quote the fading presumptive Democrat nominee for president:

"What difference, at this point, does it make?"

At this point, I'm thinking no. Very few quality teams left on the schedule, and they'd likely have to win out against all of them which I don't see happening. Obviously the conference tournament is the wild card.

Voting yes. We have 1 MAYBE 2 times left where we'll be underdogs. The wins will pile up and the rest will take care of itself.

We won 22 games last year and made it in pretty easily. That would mean 11-4 rest of the way.

If UC continues to struggle to beat teams like USF there is no way they will make the NCAA tournament.

(01-13-2016 03:03 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Voting yes. We have 1 MAYBE 2 times left where we'll be underdogs. The wins will pile up and the rest will take care of itself.

We won 22 games last year and made it in pretty easily. That would mean 11-4 rest of the way.

The amount of wins is meaningless.

(01-13-2016 03:47 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(01-13-2016 03:03 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Voting yes. We have 1 MAYBE 2 times left where we'll be underdogs. The wins will pile up and the rest will take care of itself.

We won 22 games last year and made it in pretty easily. That would mean 11-4 rest of the way.

The amount of wins is meaningless.

Same conference, very similar schedule... it's as good of an indicator as we have for what it will take.

The AAC gets two bids this year at best.

The best course of action: win the conference tournament and get the auto-bid. In this scenario, the regular season doesn't really matter: win the tournament and remove all doubt.

Outside of that auto-bid, things get murky. Depending upon who wins the tournament, the AAC ***COULD*** be a 1-bid conference this year. And if UC doesn't finish with some sort of "wow!" factor...complete domination of our remaining opponents and a close loss in the conference tournament final...we're going to get eclipsed by a lot "big name" programs having rather ordinary seasons. A 22-win UC out of the AAC isn't going to take a bid away from a major having a questionable year.

Sucks, but it is what it is.

The answer is yes.

RPI up to 72. Win @Temple on Saturday and it will get another solid boost.

Not sure. I see maybe 7 more losses on the schedule. UC just hasn't shown they can hold it together in close games against decent/good teams
@ Temple - Loss
vs Memphis - Should win but if its close at the end of the game I think Memphis pulls it off
vs Tulane - Win
@ UConn - Loss
vs USF - Win
@ Memphis - Loss
@ UCF - Win
vs ECU - Win
@ Tulsa - A loss that shouldn't happen but most likely will
vs UConn - Loss
@ ECU - Win
@ Houston - Loss (Houston gets revenge at home)
vs SMU - Loss and everyone will blame the refs again even though its a home game.

(01-13-2016 04:06 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The AAC gets two bids this year at best.

The best course of action: win the conference tournament and get the auto-bid. In this scenario, the regular season doesn't really matter: win the tournament and remove all doubt.

Outside of that auto-bid, things get murky. Depending upon who wins the tournament, the AAC ***COULD*** be a 1-bid conference this year. And if UC doesn't finish with some sort of "wow!" factor...complete domination of our remaining opponents and a close loss in the conference tournament final...we're going to get eclipsed by a lot "big name" programs having rather ordinary seasons. A 22-win UC out of the AAC isn't going to take a bid away from a major having a questionable year.

Sucks, but it is what it is.

This is exactly what we did last year

Mine....

@ Temple - Win
vs Memphis - Win
vs Tulane - Win
@ UConn - Loss
vs USF - Win
@ Memphis - Win
@ UCF - Win
vs ECU - Win
@ Tulsa - Loss
vs UConn - Win
@ ECU - Win
@ Houston - Loss
vs SMU - Win

(01-14-2016 08:21 AM)uccheese Wrote:  This is exactly what we did last year

Once again, all wins and seasons aren't equal . UC obviously isn't going to sweep SMU and don't have a win against SDSU on their resume.

As I said the other day, where UC stands after the game @ UConn is very important.

(01-14-2016 08:39 AM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(01-14-2016 08:21 AM)uccheese Wrote:  This is exactly what we did last year

Once again, all wins and seasons aren't equal . UC obviously isn't going to sweep SMU and don't have a win against SDSU on their resume.

As I said the other day, where UC stands after the game @ UConn is very important.

They're also VERY unlikely to take the number of garbage losses they took last year. I'll admit we really don't know how a more balanced, less top-heavy resume will be judged with the same amount of wins from the same conference, but we also weren't very close to getting left out last year.

(01-13-2016 11:31 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  RPI up to 72. Win @Temple on Saturday and it will get another solid boost.

RPI is a really flawed metric since they started over inflating road wins. Since then it consistently overrates lesser conference teams, which will help us for two reasons this season. 1. Our conference is down 2. Our best wins are 2 A10 teams which will climb as they pick up road wins.

That said it is now just one of a handful of metrics they use now. Last week I saw we are in the low 30s in most of those. So we're probably an 8 seed now (I believe Lunardi has us around there). After taking out automatic bids you need to be in the top 45 to get an at large. We'd have a long way to fall to get there.

If we repeat last year's losses vs Tulane and ECU we could drop that far but I think it's unlikely. I'm constantly amazed how weak the bubble teams end up being.

(01-14-2016 08:21 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(01-13-2016 04:06 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The AAC gets two bids this year at best.

The best course of action: win the conference tournament and get the auto-bid. In this scenario, the regular season doesn't really matter: win the tournament and remove all doubt.

Outside of that auto-bid, things get murky. Depending upon who wins the tournament, the AAC ***COULD*** be a 1-bid conference this year. And if UC doesn't finish with some sort of "wow!" factor...complete domination of our remaining opponents and a close loss in the conference tournament final...we're going to get eclipsed by a lot "big name" programs having rather ordinary seasons. A 22-win UC out of the AAC isn't going to take a bid away from a major having a questionable year.

Sucks, but it is what it is.

This is exactly what we did last year

That was last year... This is this year...

And last year, the 22-win UC team had a couple of marquee wins to it's credit as well.