(01-12-2016 08:02 PM)JRsec Wrote: (01-12-2016 05:44 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote: (01-12-2016 05:23 PM)TerryD Wrote: Agreed. This has been my thought process since realignment began heating up in 2010.
There are too many competing interests for this "grand scheme" of 4x16 to neatly occur.
This is why a new conference scenario makes sense to me, it would be the coming together of common interests. It would be in the common interests for a number of brands to break from their current vulnerable conferences & form a strong & stable conference that can preserve their rivalries & compete financially. As JR has stated, ESPN has already told the SEC that they wouldn't pay for them to take FSU & Clemson, why is that? Evidently they want an ACC type conference to protect their interests. If they could do that while taking valuable properties away from Fox, build an SECesq conference that also protects the SEC while locking the B1G out of their territory then why wouldn't they? Not built to challenge the SEC but to coexist with it. Forming a P3 strengthens the SEC for sure but it also strengthens the B1G, PAC & Fox. Brokering is probably a bad word for this as it would realistically be the coming together of a group of 5 or so schools that would then compete with the other 3 conferences for the remnants of the B12 & ACC.
Lenville remember that what ESPN said in 2010 is subject to change with the times, the delivery models, and their own economic circumstances. If content becomes the main method of valuation then basketball brands in the Big 10 and football brands in the SEC accomplish things without having to save the ACC. It could be a way to get what they want out of the Big 10, the SEC, and with which to rebuild the Big 12.
I go back to something you said a while back JR, that it would be easier to build a power league around Texas and Oklahoma than around the lack of football prowess in the ACC.
I don't completely agree with Lenville, but I wonder when the ceiling comes for the value that ESPN can squeeze out of the B1G and SEC that the Mouse will try to gain as much value as it can out of a rebuilt Big 12.
UT and OU would surely maximize content in the SEC, but would ESPN be more interested in saving as many properties out of the ACC as they could? Let's say the threshold of 18 is the top number for profitability. ESPN could do as we've talked about and move UNC, Duke, UVA, and GT to the B1G then move FSU, Clemson, NC State, and VT to the SEC. If there's not much room for value beyond that then ESPN might stand to prosper more by improving and saving the Big 12.
Here's how I look at the value of the current Big 12 brands...
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Kansas
4. Oklahoma State
5. Baylor
Everyone else has marginal value and revenue. If you add Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, and BYU then you have a strong base for a network especially if Notre Dame is willing to affiliate with it. I don't see them dropping independence so I threw them in. The football quality is better than the current ACC while the basketball quality is probably equal.
That's not exactly the idea scenario for the likes of OU and UT, but it could be more profitable than the current setup for ESPN.