There was a comment on the thread about our defense that stated that the anger and dislike for Bailiff was based on 2009-2011. I have long disagreed with that, but decided to take a look at our "golden years" instead.

Long story short, 2012-2014 was not impressive at all. The numbers below are based on final Sagarin rankings for each year

2012: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Record against top 25 : 0-0
Record against 25-50 : 0-2
Record against 50-75 : 1-1
Record against 75-100: 1-0
Record against 100 + : 5-3

Average rank of teams we beat: 122
Average rank of teams we lost to: 78

Average margin of victory: 14
Average margin of defeat: 13

2013: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Record against top 25 : 0-1
Record against 25-50 : 0-2
Record against 50-75 : 1-1
Record against 75-100: 3-0
Record against 100 + : 6-0

Average rank of teams we beat: 128
Average rank of teams we lost to: 42

Average margin of victory: 15
Average margin of defeat: 19


2014: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Record against top 25 : 0-2
Record against 25-50 : 0-2
Record against 50-75 : 0-0
Record against 75-100: 0-0
Record against 100 + : 8-1

Average rank of teams we beat: 132
Average rank of teams we lost to: 45

Average margin of victory: 17
Average margin of defeat: 27


We have beaten up on the absolute dregs of college football. And these are our best years. Simply put, we are a very very mediocre football team playing in an absolutely horrid conference.

The numbers don't lie.

And to preempt any arguments about the source data (from either side) I have attached the list of wins and losses, sagarin rank and point Delta below.

Wins

Losses

I have a 14 hour flight coming up. I will try to build and apply a model to this data to classify and highlight it

Thanks for the research and empirical evidence, Ants, but this should really not be new news. You and I (and one or two others) have been saying this for years now. Bailiff's entire resume (save for the outlying Marshall win) is built on beating up on the dregs of college football...and, with only 3 - 4 exceptions over the last 4 year period, getting blown off the field-- and being woefully uncompetitive-- against any team with a pulse.

Interesting that the holidays and no bowl game doesn't keep you two from posting negative thoughts, research, expertise or inside info about the football program. I just don't see why we're going to keep going out of our way to point out things aren't going well.

What should be really unsettling is JK says to trust him even on this even though Walt hinted in some other thread that his inside info know Joe isn't the biggest fan of Bailiff. Every time I post I get told to send a message to the Athletic Dept...so obviously Tanner, Josh and crew all know people are unhappy and don't want that unhappiness posted on these threads unless it directly criticizes the coaches. Further, these boards are clearly being monitored by the powers that be and that which is posted is held against the posters...also disturbing.

We had a big win in basketball recently. Our best sport is about to take the field and apparently with the best pitching staff ever. Let's turn the page and look for some other things that show improvement or regression in our programs and let this football stuff be where joe et all would like it. It's almost baseball season after all.

(12-26-2015 08:34 PM)BufflOwl Wrote:  Interesting that the holidays and no bowl game doesn't keep you two from posting negative thoughts, research, expertise or inside info about the football program. I just don't see why we're going to keep going out of our way to point out things aren't going well.

What should be really unsettling is JK says to trust him even on this even though Walt hinted in some other thread that his inside info know Joe isn't the biggest fan of Bailiff. Every time I post I get told to send a message to the Athletic Dept...so obviously Tanner, Josh and crew all know people are unhappy and don't want that unhappiness posted on these threads unless it directly criticizes the coaches. Further, these boards are clearly being monitored by the powers that be and that which is posted is held against the posters...also disturbing.

To the bolded part - eh? I sent this data to the athletic department as well. I'm sure they know it, but its not like I'm posting here anonymously. I have never had anything "held against me" nor have I heard of it.

As for why I went out of the way, its because we keep having a meta discussion about 2012-2014 being good and how the quality of opponents wasn't as bad as some of us make it out to be - time to settle that for good. Once we reach data based consensus that we really have been pretty lousy for a long time, then we can stop.

And yes, the holidays and the lack of a Bowl gives plenty of time to reflect on how we screwed the pooch this year while we get to watch, read and see UH stuff and coverage all over.

(12-26-2015 09:01 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 08:34 PM)BufflOwl Wrote:  Interesting that the holidays and no bowl game doesn't keep you two from posting negative thoughts, research, expertise or inside info about the football program. I just don't see why we're going to keep going out of our way to point out things aren't going well.

What should be really unsettling is JK says to trust him even on this even though Walt hinted in some other thread that his inside info know Joe isn't the biggest fan of Bailiff. Every time I post I get told to send a message to the Athletic Dept...so obviously Tanner, Josh and crew all know people are unhappy and don't want that unhappiness posted on these threads unless it directly criticizes the coaches. Further, these boards are clearly being monitored by the powers that be and that which is posted is held against the posters...also disturbing.

To the bolded part - eh? I sent this data to the athletic department as well. I'm sure they know it, but its not like I'm posting here anonymously. I have never had anything "held against me" nor have I heard of it.

As for why I went out of the way, its because we keep having a meta discussion about 2012-2014 being good and how the quality of opponents wasn't as bad as some of us make it out to be - time to settle that for good. Once we reach data based consensus that we really have been pretty lousy for a long time, then we can stop.

And yes, the holidays and the lack of a Bowl gives plenty of time to reflect on how we screwed the pooch this year while we get to watch, read and see UH stuff and coverage all over.

yes U of H passed us as a Department last year even though I got ripped at the time for saying it...and I'm pretty sure it doesn't matter what these boards think if the AD agrees with the Pro-Bailiff side at least enough for right now.

Basketball has half a season to beat up on CUSA and then we get see if baseball is still a premier program...

While continuing to review the numbers, and interesting stat jumped out

In 2011
Average rank of teams we lost to: 36

(12-27-2015 06:21 PM)Antarius Wrote:  While continuing to review the numbers, and interesting stat jumped out

In 2011
Average rank of teams we lost to: 36

Wow. I logged in after a few week absence, hoping to read an interesting thread about Shania Twain, and I get this?! That don't impress me much.

(12-27-2015 08:17 PM)gmath Wrote:  

(12-27-2015 06:21 PM)Antarius Wrote:  While continuing to review the numbers, and interesting stat jumped out

In 2011
Average rank of teams we lost to: 36

Wow. I logged in after a few week absence, hoping to read an interesting thread about Shania Twain, and I get this?! That don't impress me much.

Just Shania's likely opinion on Bailiff

Oh-oo-oh, you think he's special
Oh-oo-oh, you think he's something else
Okay, so he's a sub 0.500 CFB coach
That don't impress me much

(12-27-2015 08:24 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(12-27-2015 08:17 PM)gmath Wrote:  

(12-27-2015 06:21 PM)Antarius Wrote:  While continuing to review the numbers, and interesting stat jumped out

In 2011
Average rank of teams we lost to: 36

Wow. I logged in after a few week absence, hoping to read an interesting thread about Shania Twain, and I get this?! That don't impress me much.

Just Shania's likely opinion on Bailiff

Oh-oo-oh, you think he's special
Oh-oo-oh, you think he's something else
Okay, so he's a sub 0.500 CFB coach
That don't impress me much

Just stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

We remember the last few seasons. I recall winning a conference championship in 2013. Apparently we only lost 1 game to a team not ranked in the top 50 (in 11 chances!) that year. 2013/2014 show an improvement over what Rice football had been before that, that's why JK extended DB's contract and why he won't fire DB after 1 bad season following 3 bowl ones.

(12-28-2015 01:32 PM)Buho00 Wrote:  We remember the last few seasons. I recall winning a conference championship in 2013. Apparently we only lost 1 game to a team not ranked in the top 50 (in 11 chances!) that year. 2013/2014 show an improvement over what Rice football had been before that, that's why JK extended DB's contract and why he won't fire DB after 1 bad season following 3 bowl ones.

The point of the post is that 2012 to 2014 wasn't impressive, despite the bowls. In 2013, Average rank of teams we beat: 128

How in gods name is that impressive?

As for Afflicted, sorry that you hate facts, numbers and reality. Tough

So, plotting the numbers here is what we get



Some rapid fire conclusions
1. Bailiff does best with teams ranked between 100 and 150 in Sagarin
1 a. Save for a few examples (in 7 years of data there were 5 cases) Bailiff cannot win against teams within the top 100
2. 2011 and 2013 were the best two years with multiple wins against top 100 opponents
3. Plotting a basic linear regression over 2012-2014, we actually got worse as time goes on, although the line is pretty flat. Granted, 3 years is not a good sample size for ANY regression plots.

More to come.

If anyone wants the raw data in excel, PM me. Will be happy to share.

Also, I am currently out of the country and will be visiting the Middle East and SE Asia - places that don't follow CFB or know much about Rice or american football.

As a result, I will show these graphs to people who have no bias and report back with conclusions.

Would like to see if a neutral observer agrees with me. Because some people here seem to think theres an axe to grind or something. Really, its just all about the data

(12-28-2015 03:18 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Also, I am currently out of the country and will be visiting the Middle East and SE Asia - places that don't follow CFB or know much about Rice or american football.

As a result, I will show these graphs to people who have no bias and report back with conclusions.

That does not surprise me.

(12-28-2015 03:23 PM)07owl Wrote:  

(12-28-2015 03:18 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Also, I am currently out of the country and will be visiting the Middle East and SE Asia - places that don't follow CFB or know much about Rice or american football.

As a result, I will show these graphs to people who have no bias and report back with conclusions.

That does not surprise me.

And I'm sure we will all be on the edge of our seats!

Ha.

(12-28-2015 03:18 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Also, I am currently out of the country and will be visiting the Middle East and SE Asia - places that don't follow CFB or know much about Rice or american football.

As a result, I will show these graphs to people who have no bias and report back with conclusions.

Would like to see if a neutral observer agrees with me. Because some people here seem to think theres an axe to grind or something. Really, its just all about the data

Get a life dude. Really.

(12-28-2015 03:18 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Also, I am currently out of the country and will be visiting the Middle East and SE Asia - places that don't follow CFB or know much about Rice or american football.

As a result, I will show these graphs to people who have no bias and report back with conclusions.

Would like to see if a neutral observer agrees with me. Because some people here seem to think theres an axe to grind or something. Really, its just all about the data

Enjoying the data. I can use it when debating with friends who think Bailiff is a good coach. They said to me that he would have a better year than Herman. One is at the Peach Bowl, the other one shopping for peaches at Randall's. Not sure why Afflicted gets upset, he can skip and not read the thread. Don't recall him writing to defend DB during the WKU, Southern Miss, La Tech games.

Interesting data. Burying your head in the ground still exposes your rear. Sadly, I have come to the conclusion we need a new direction to our football program.

(12-28-2015 03:52 PM)Afflicted Wrote:  

(12-28-2015 03:18 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Also, I am currently out of the country and will be visiting the Middle East and SE Asia - places that don't follow CFB or know much about Rice or american football.

As a result, I will show these graphs to people who have no bias and report back with conclusions.

Would like to see if a neutral observer agrees with me. Because some people here seem to think theres an axe to grind or something. Really, its just all about the data

Get a life dude. Really.