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Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 01:35 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  You do realize that this would usher in the era of the Super conference (16 being the preferred number). We're basically talking about 2 schools at this point. Likely TCU and Baylor.

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

The AAC would go to 16 and take 4 from this group. Two Texas schools would get cut because the new conference would not have 5 Texas schools. IMO, Texas Tech would make it.

The alternative (a Big 12 poach) isn't any more advantageous to the new conference. It's actually less so. TCU and Baylor are just bodies. They'd likely go to the MWC.

ESPN would decide how it goes. As every single remaining Big-12 school would have more value than the bottom 2 AAC schools, no B-12 school will be left out of any surviving final conglomeration (be it a rebuilt B-12 or an expanded AAC).
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2015 01:43 PM by Attackcoog.)
12-17-2015 01:42 PM
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BigEastHomer Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 01:35 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  You do realize that this would usher in the era of the Super conference (16 being the preferred number). We're basically talking about 2 schools at this point. Likely TCU and Baylor.

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

The AAC would go to 16 and take 4 from this group. Two Texas schools would get cut because the new conference would not have 5 Texas schools. IMO, Texas Tech would make it.

The alternative (a Big 12 poach) isn't any more advantageous to the new conference. It's actually less so. TCU and Baylor are just bodies. They'd likely go to the MWC.

ESPN would decide how it goes. As every single remaining Big-12 school would have more value than the bottom 2 AAC schools, no B-12 school will be left out of any surviving final conglomeration (be it called the B-12 or AAC).

I don't believe the new conference would go above 3 Texas programs.

That's essentially the question.

I think 16 would be the number and the American/Aresco already have the inside track with ESPN. The "Big 12" would be taking on a lot of water by that point.

Baylor/TCU's value right now is being in a conference with Texas/OU. Once that affiliation goes, their value to a TV contract (especialy as Privates) will not be any more than USFs was/is (post BE breakup). The MWC is itching to get into Texas as well.

Timing is the big Xfactor. The longer the AAC is intact (perhaps into contract #2 by this point) it'll be harder to break apart. The "Big 12" brand is an impossible sell without Texas/OU. Aresco would hold the key (that being the footholds in the major markets)
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2015 02:16 PM by BigEastHomer.)
12-17-2015 01:50 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.
12-17-2015 02:42 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 12:49 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 12:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

Any team in the AAC would jump at the chance to join the that group and yes they could dictate the terms. SMU would go in a heart beat.
There's no particular reason why they would or should. At least, no reason concerning money or media-exposure.

(12-17-2015 01:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its ESPN's call as to how it goes.
Isn't it always?
12-17-2015 03:42 PM
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SMUmustangs Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 03:42 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 12:49 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 12:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

Any team in the AAC would jump at the chance to join the that group and yes they could dictate the terms. SMU would go in a heart beat.
There's no particular reason why they would or should. At least, no reason concerning money or media-exposure.

(12-17-2015 01:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its ESPN's call as to how it goes.
Isn't it always?

Are you saying Tulane would not accept an invite to join those teams along with Houston, UCF, USF. Memphis, Cincy, SMU?
12-17-2015 08:04 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 08:04 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Are you saying Tulane would not accept an invite to join those teams along with Houston, UCF, USF. Memphis, Cincy, SMU?
Well, first of all, let's be clear if you're talking about the chance to join those six leftovers, or those six leftovers plus the other teams from AAC? Because those are two very distinct scenarios.

Secondly, yes I admit such a merger or quasi-merger could happen. What I said was, the remaining teams couldn't "dictate terms" of the merger. I disagree with the idea that Iowa State &co. could simply pick up the phone and take whoever they want. A Big <XII that has been abandoned by Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is not going to be viewed in the same light as the league currently is viewed; existing media- and bowl-contracts will become inoperative and everything will have to start from scratch.
12-17-2015 08:57 PM
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SMUmustangs Offline
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 08:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 08:04 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Are you saying Tulane would not accept an invite to join those teams along with Houston, UCF, USF. Memphis, Cincy, SMU?
Well, first of all, let's be clear if you're talking about the chance to join those six leftovers, or those six leftovers plus the other teams from AAC? Because those are two very distinct scenarios.

Secondly, yes I admit such a merger or quasi-merger could happen. What I said was, the remaining teams couldn't "dictate terms" of the merger. I disagree with the idea that Iowa State &co. could simply pick up the phone and take whoever they want. A Big <XII that has been abandoned by Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is not going to be viewed in the same light as the league currently is viewed; existing media- and bowl-contracts will become inoperative and everything will have to start from scratch.

Say what you want, but if those six Big12 schools were left and the Big12 Commish called Tulane with an invite, Tulane would be thrilled to accept. Maybe you would not, but you an bet your boots the school would.
12-18-2015 10:10 AM
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-18-2015 10:10 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 08:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 08:04 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Are you saying Tulane would not accept an invite to join those teams along with Houston, UCF, USF. Memphis, Cincy, SMU?
Well, first of all, let's be clear if you're talking about the chance to join those six leftovers, or those six leftovers plus the other teams from AAC? Because those are two very distinct scenarios.

Secondly, yes I admit such a merger or quasi-merger could happen. What I said was, the remaining teams couldn't "dictate terms" of the merger. I disagree with the idea that Iowa State &co. could simply pick up the phone and take whoever they want. A Big <XII that has been abandoned by Texas and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is not going to be viewed in the same light as the league currently is viewed; existing media- and bowl-contracts will become inoperative and everything will have to start from scratch.

Say what you want, but if those six Big12 schools were left and the Big12 Commish called Tulane with an invite, Tulane would be thrilled to accept. Maybe you would not, but you an bet your boots the school would.

Our AD Troy Dannen has a very good professional relationship with the Iowa State AD. When Troy took the Tulane job, the FIRST thing he did was take the guy out to dinner to talk FBS football.

I think that he would make a HUGE push for Tulane to join a conference with one of his close professional friends.
12-18-2015 11:35 AM
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
There's only one school that takes this conference to another level...byu. Without them it's gonna be a slog to p6 status. Strange as it sounds we just need Espn using the term "p6" to change the entire dynamic.
12-18-2015 12:44 PM
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BigEastHomer Offline
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 02:42 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.

Absurd.

There is no way you'll convince me that Manhattan, Kansas, Ames, Iowa, Waco, Texas, etc, are going to control that situation.

First off, what are they going to offer? A spot in a brand new non-BCS conference (with no contracts), which they are going to maintain as the "Big 12".

You actually think in this new non-BCS universe, they are going to prefer outposts in Ames, Iowa, over Philadelphia, Pa (Temple)? You actually think Baylor is going to hold more value than NAVY? You really think TCU's fanbase is going to offset ECU's? You think Kansas State is going to be more valuable than UCONN?

Seriously, the AAC will have the highground because Aresco branded it around major metropolitans. With that continued branding effort on ESPN, I simply see no way that the AAC as a whole are going to be pushed around in that deal.

Those leftover Big 12 pieces simply don't command enough eyeballs. They aren't big enough brands to exist out of the shadow of UT/OU. On the outside, they certainly wont drive a new contract because they are more valuable properties than Navy (???)

The number most definitely would be 16, and the fault line runs through the Texas privates. The Metro structure would hold firm and I don't see Waco/Fort Worth pushing out Dallas. Due to the metro structure of the American, those two schools would go to the MWC and the AAC would stay at 16 (which would be the norm for the conferences after the movement).

If they kept the old Big 12 contracts, it would be a different deal. But that's a huge if... and doesn't align with history.
(This post was last modified: 12-18-2015 12:58 PM by BigEastHomer.)
12-18-2015 12:53 PM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-18-2015 12:53 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 02:42 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.

Absurd.

There is no way you'll convince me that Manhattan, Kansas, Ames, Iowa, Waco, Texas, etc, are going to control that situation.

First off, what are they going to offer? A spot in a brand new non-BCS conference (with no contracts), which they are going to maintain as the "Big 12".

You actually think in this new non-BCS universe, they are going to prefer outposts in Ames, Iowa, over Philadelphia, Pa (Temple)? You actually think Baylor is going to hold more value than NAVY? You really think TCU's fanbase is going to offset ECU's? You think Kansas State is going to be more valuable than UCONN?

Seriously, the AAC will have the highground because Aresco branded it around major metropolitans. With that continued branding effort on ESPN, I simply see no way that the AAC as a whole are going to be pushed around in that deal.

Those leftover Big 12 pieces simply don't command enough eyeballs. They aren't big enough brands to exist out of the shadow of UT/OU. On the outside, they certainly wont drive a new contract because they are more valuable properties than Navy (???)

The number most definitely would be 16, and the fault line runs through the Texas privates. The Metro structure would hold firm and I don't see Waco/Fort Worth pushing out Dallas. Due to the metro structure of the American, those two schools would go to the MWC and the AAC would stay at 16 (which would be the norm for the conferences after the movement).

If they kept the old Big 12 contracts, it would be a different deal. But that's a huge if... and doesn't align with history.

LOL, if the AAC TV contract shows us anything, it's that if you don't have attendance and ratings, being located in a metro means nothing. CUSA should have had an upper hand on the remaining Big East schools, but we saw a mass exodus to the Big East even as it was collapsing. It will be the same thing if this scenario goes down. The Texas privates, Kansas State, etc. draw eyeballs and have fan support, something that many teams in the American do not.
12-18-2015 01:54 PM
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BigEastHomer Offline
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-18-2015 01:54 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(12-18-2015 12:53 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 02:42 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.

Absurd.

There is no way you'll convince me that Manhattan, Kansas, Ames, Iowa, Waco, Texas, etc, are going to control that situation.

First off, what are they going to offer? A spot in a brand new non-BCS conference (with no contracts), which they are going to maintain as the "Big 12".

You actually think in this new non-BCS universe, they are going to prefer outposts in Ames, Iowa, over Philadelphia, Pa (Temple)? You actually think Baylor is going to hold more value than NAVY? You really think TCU's fanbase is going to offset ECU's? You think Kansas State is going to be more valuable than UCONN?

Seriously, the AAC will have the highground because Aresco branded it around major metropolitans. With that continued branding effort on ESPN, I simply see no way that the AAC as a whole are going to be pushed around in that deal.

Those leftover Big 12 pieces simply don't command enough eyeballs. They aren't big enough brands to exist out of the shadow of UT/OU. On the outside, they certainly wont drive a new contract because they are more valuable properties than Navy (???)

The number most definitely would be 16, and the fault line runs through the Texas privates. The Metro structure would hold firm and I don't see Waco/Fort Worth pushing out Dallas. Due to the metro structure of the American, those two schools would go to the MWC and the AAC would stay at 16 (which would be the norm for the conferences after the movement).

If they kept the old Big 12 contracts, it would be a different deal. But that's a huge if... and doesn't align with history.

LOL, if the AAC TV contract shows us anything, it's that if you don't have attendance and ratings, being located in a metro means nothing. CUSA should have had an upper hand on the remaining Big East schools, but we saw a mass exodus to the Big East even as it was collapsing. It will be the same thing if this scenario goes down. The Texas privates, Kansas State, etc. draw eyeballs and have fan support, something that many teams in the American do not.

Drawing eyeballs against UT and OU is a different matter altogether. Rutgers was poached by the B1G for a reason.
TCU attendance is not the juggernaut you are envisioning. Neither is Baylors. And those are really the two schools most impacted. There wont be 5 Texas schools together in a conference if it hit the fan.
Comparing to the Big East is ludicrous because the BE still had the C7, Notre Dame, and UL.
(This post was last modified: 12-18-2015 02:15 PM by BigEastHomer.)
12-18-2015 02:02 PM
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SMUmustangs Offline
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-18-2015 02:02 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  
(12-18-2015 01:54 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(12-18-2015 12:53 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 02:42 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.

Absurd.

There is no way you'll convince me that Manhattan, Kansas, Ames, Iowa, Waco, Texas, etc, are going to control that situation.

First off, what are they going to offer? A spot in a brand new non-BCS conference (with no contracts), which they are going to maintain as the "Big 12".

You actually think in this new non-BCS universe, they are going to prefer outposts in Ames, Iowa, over Philadelphia, Pa (Temple)? You actually think Baylor is going to hold more value than NAVY? You really think TCU's fanbase is going to offset ECU's? You think Kansas State is going to be more valuable than UCONN?

Seriously, the AAC will have the highground because Aresco branded it around major metropolitans. With that continued branding effort on ESPN, I simply see no way that the AAC as a whole are going to be pushed around in that deal.

Those leftover Big 12 pieces simply don't command enough eyeballs. They aren't big enough brands to exist out of the shadow of UT/OU. On the outside, they certainly wont drive a new contract because they are more valuable properties than Navy (???)

The number most definitely would be 16, and the fault line runs through the Texas privates. The Metro structure would hold firm and I don't see Waco/Fort Worth pushing out Dallas. Due to the metro structure of the American, those two schools would go to the MWC and the AAC would stay at 16 (which would be the norm for the conferences after the movement).

If they kept the old Big 12 contracts, it would be a different deal. But that's a huge if... and doesn't align with history.

LOL, if the AAC TV contract shows us anything, it's that if you don't have attendance and ratings, being located in a metro means nothing. CUSA should have had an upper hand on the remaining Big East schools, but we saw a mass exodus to the Big East even as it was collapsing. It will be the same thing if this scenario goes down. The Texas privates, Kansas State, etc. draw eyeballs and have fan support, something that many teams in the American do not.

Drawing eyeballs against UT and OU is a different matter altogether. Rutgers was poached by the B1G for a reason.
TCU attendance is not the juggernaut you are envisioning. Neither is Baylors. And those are really the two schools most impacted. There wont be 5 Texas schools together in a conference if it hit the fan.
Comparing to the Big East is ludicrous because the BE still had the C7, Notre Dame, and UL.

Whatever happened to BigEast football.....don't here much about them anymore.
12-18-2015 02:41 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-18-2015 12:53 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  There is no way you'll convince me that Manhattan, Kansas, Ames, Iowa, Waco, Texas, etc, are going to control that situation.
Don't forget Lubbock and Morgantown!

Quote:First off, what are they going to offer? A spot in a brand new non-BCS conference (with no contracts), which they are going to maintain as the "Big 12".
That is precisely what they would offer, under the scenario being hypothesized.

Quote:If they kept the old Big 12 contracts, it would be a different deal.
If wishes were raindrops...

(12-18-2015 01:54 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  The Texas privates, Kansas State, etc. draw eyeballs and have fan support
Meh. They're not nothing, but put them on the open market all by themselves without UT/OU/KU to take the lead... I think you'll be surprised just how little interest there really is from the people who sign the checks.

But anyway, this is just another thread of idle speculation. I'll return to my original point, which is that the Big <XII is (despite everything) a stable, prosperous league that is not looking to expand and (in all probability) won't do so during the life of existing media-contracts. Oklahoma's participation in the play-offs is not necessary for that to continue but obviously helps to ensure that it will.
(This post was last modified: 12-18-2015 08:12 PM by Native Georgian.)
12-18-2015 08:10 PM
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 12:32 PM)PuddlePirate Wrote:  "There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone."

My man! Rod Serling was the coolest human being ever!!! I'm giving u some points for that!
12-18-2015 08:40 PM
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
Hell no.
12-19-2015 10:42 AM
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CougarTruth Offline
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
Getting back to the OP question, G5 Cincy actually already has poached the P5 with hiring Tuberville from TT.
12-20-2015 11:00 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 02:42 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.
And that would bring back a second USF rival with West Virginia. That would be excellent for the AAC, we had some great games with them over the years.

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12-21-2015 12:02 PM
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-21-2015 12:02 PM)bullsbucsfan426 Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 02:42 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Big 12 West:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston

Big 12 East:
West Virginia
UCF
USF
Memphis
Cincy
ECU/Tulane/UConn

That's how that would play out.
And that would bring back a second USF rival with West Virginia. That would be excellent for the AAC, we had some great games with them over the years.

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That would be wonderful. It won't happen but it would a wonderful conference. WV in the same conference as ECU!!! Cheers!
12-22-2015 07:04 PM
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RE: Is there actually something to the pipe dream of AAC poaching Cartel schools?
(12-17-2015 12:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(12-17-2015 11:41 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

That probably leads to the remaining B12 schools inviting the top of the AAC and maybe the top of the MWC and BYU.
The Big <XII is pretty stable right now. OU getting into the play-off helps to ensure that it will remain stable for several years to come, IMHO. Keep in mind that the league presidents don't actually Want to expand... they are simply willing to swallow their pride and do it *IF* they are backed into a corner and have no other choice. That hasn't happened yet and may not ever happen.

But, okay, I'll play along. Let's suppose that there is some sort of "exodus" involving the league's biggest brands.


That would depend on who, precisely, the "remaining" members are.

Just offhand, if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

Under that scenario I think you may see other P5 conference attempt to expand also. the SEC "could" be interested in WVU and it wouldnt shock me if the ACC made a real out of the box move and picked up Baylor and TCU.

Yes, they are both private schools outside of their normal area, but they fit the academic profile, the competitive profile and open up huge markets for the ACC.

Texas isnt going anywhere without Texas Tech, and I dont see Oklahoma making a move without OSU. Tons of political issues there if either tries it. If there is a move it will be those four.

I can see Kansas, KSU, West Virginia and Iowa State looking to rebuild the Big 12.... and if I really had to guess, the ACC doesnt take the two texas schools but instead convinces Notre Dame to join and they finally relent and take Uconn. I know WVU would try like crazy to get in to the ACC, but they barely could stand Lvills academics and they are light years ahead of WVU.

A core of ISU, KSU, Kansas, Baylor, TCU and WVU would be a great building block for a new 12-14 team conference. I think BYU is their first choice and then they build from there. Those 7 make a solid beginning. Add in 7-9 more teams and I think its competitively equal to the ACC.
12-22-2015 08:08 PM
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