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Ohio State is out
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Post: #21
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 09:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Ohio St isn't the only team that UNC has to worry about. Stanford who has a very strong resume and would be a conference championship.

Also by the quotes of Jeff Long, the conference championship doesn't seem to matter in reality than it does on paper.

Last year they talked about it more as a tiebreaker between close teams. So you have to be close first.
12-01-2015 09:50 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 09:50 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Ohio St isn't the only team that UNC has to worry about. Stanford who has a very strong resume and would be a conference championship.

Also by the quotes of Jeff Long, the conference championship doesn't seem to matter in reality than it does on paper.

Last year they talked about it more as a tiebreaker between close teams. So you have to be close first.
Exactly. It's not what some folks on here want to make it out to be- conference champions and then if you have 2 champions that are like USC with 4 losses- then a non conference champ. No where near like that.
12-01-2015 09:53 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 09:50 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:38 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:31 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:04 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  sorry h1, you have no clue how close Ohio St and Stanford are. One has to be in the 6th position another has to be in the 7th position. But they could have been split right in the middle. We just don't know.

Yes I do. If you don't recognize what has directly been told to us by The Committee about how they place teams in Tiers then it is you that doesn't have a clue. They first vote on teams in the Tiers, NOT the rankings. The rankings are then figured out within the tiers.

Ohio State was placed with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan State by a majority of the Committee while Stanford was placed with Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, TCU and Baylor.

So Stanford and NC aren't going to jump to the top tier even with conference championships...

All that matters, as always, is the final rankings

The NC haters can't deny the fact that they will be playing the top team in the country in every poll out there....A 12-1 ACC Champ that just dethroned #1 will be valued pretty high....

Stanford also has a chance to slip in if they can stomp USC...

Ohio State has one good win over Michigan...the rest of their schedule isn't that great, and they looked largely mediocre at times. They're going to be left out

Let me repeat. I don't want Ohio State to be in the CFP. Sorry, I don't think they deserved it simply because they showed us their true selves in the final game of the season. That doesn't change the fact that they got placed in the Top Tier while Stanford was placed in the second tier and that UNC was placed in the bottom half of the second tier.

Ohio State probably wouldn't have jumped TCU if they just barely beat Wisconsin. They had to dominate Wisconsin. The same will be the case for a Stanford team that has one more loss than Ohio State and will be playing a team that is 10 ranks lower than the Michigan team that Ohio State played. Ohio State played Michigan AT Michigan at an extremely hostile venue. They didn't just dominate Michigan, they dominated that venue. That is even more impressive than winning at a neutral site in which half of the spectators are there for you.

Despite my own inclinations, I have to admit that The Committee is heavily favoring that Ohio State win. Stanford will need to do more than just win against #20 four loss USC, they will have to Dominate.

UNC needs more than simply dominating Clemson.

Ya, they are favoring Ohio State THIS WEEK

Everyone is exactly where they should be this week....

The bad news for Ohio State? They're done, they can't add anything else to their resume

They will be sitting around with conference champs, with nothing but a dominant win over Michigan to top off a largely dissappointing season

If the committee doesn't like NC enough, they're going to pick Stanford, it's that simple

By that line of thinking then you must be thinking that either Stanford or UNC gets in no matter what so long as they win. Oklahoma is done too, so obviously one of those two teams will replace Oklahoma in the top four, OBVIOUSLY because Oklahoma's #3 position is just what they are ranked THIS WEEK. Right?
12-01-2015 09:56 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 09:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:41 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:31 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:04 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Yes I do. If you don't recognize what has directly been told to us by The Committee about how they place teams in Tiers then it is you that doesn't have a clue. They first vote on teams in the Tiers, NOT the rankings. The rankings are then figured out within the tiers.

Ohio State was placed with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan State by a majority of the Committee while Stanford was placed with Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, TCU and Baylor.

So Stanford and NC aren't going to jump to the top tier even with conference championships...

All that matters, as always, is the final rankings

The NC haters can't deny the fact that they will be playing the top team in the country in every poll out there....A 12-1 ACC Champ that just dethroned #1 will be valued pretty high....

Stanford also has a chance to slip in if they can stomp USC...

Ohio State has one good win over Michigan...the rest of their schedule isn't that great, and they looked largely mediocre at times. They're going to be left out

You don't have a vote. I think Ohio St. is way over-ranked as well. But I don't have a vote. They're #6 in spite of their deficiencies. UNC isn't going to catch them.

Ohio State is #6 THIS WEEK

This isnt the AP poll...everyone seems to be forgetting several factors, namely the importance of winning a conference championship, and the fact that NC plays the TOP TEAM

If they weren't playing Clemson, I'd tend to agree with everyone else about them

Clemson losing devalues Clemson a lot. If they had one loss, they would probably be behind or just ahead of Ohio St. UNC is behind several 2 loss teams because they don't think much of what they have accomplished. A win over Clemson moves them up. But not enough.

It doesn't devalue Clemson much at all....they'll still be in the top 10 and ahead of Notre Dame and FSU. Their only loss would be to another team in the top 10

So how does that devalue them?

UNC hasn't accomplished much...but they managed to make it through with just 1 loss and now have this golden opportunity in front of them
12-01-2015 09:57 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Ohio State is out
In the old days, UNC would get rewarded some by just making it through with just 1 loss. The standards HAVE changed though. you schedule like crap, you aren't going to get rewarded.
12-01-2015 09:59 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 09:56 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:50 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:38 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:31 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:04 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Yes I do. If you don't recognize what has directly been told to us by The Committee about how they place teams in Tiers then it is you that doesn't have a clue. They first vote on teams in the Tiers, NOT the rankings. The rankings are then figured out within the tiers.

Ohio State was placed with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan State by a majority of the Committee while Stanford was placed with Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, TCU and Baylor.

So Stanford and NC aren't going to jump to the top tier even with conference championships...

All that matters, as always, is the final rankings

The NC haters can't deny the fact that they will be playing the top team in the country in every poll out there....A 12-1 ACC Champ that just dethroned #1 will be valued pretty high....

Stanford also has a chance to slip in if they can stomp USC...

Ohio State has one good win over Michigan...the rest of their schedule isn't that great, and they looked largely mediocre at times. They're going to be left out

Let me repeat. I don't want Ohio State to be in the CFP. Sorry, I don't think they deserved it simply because they showed us their true selves in the final game of the season. That doesn't change the fact that they got placed in the Top Tier while Stanford was placed in the second tier and that UNC was placed in the bottom half of the second tier.

Ohio State probably wouldn't have jumped TCU if they just barely beat Wisconsin. They had to dominate Wisconsin. The same will be the case for a Stanford team that has one more loss than Ohio State and will be playing a team that is 10 ranks lower than the Michigan team that Ohio State played. Ohio State played Michigan AT Michigan at an extremely hostile venue. They didn't just dominate Michigan, they dominated that venue. That is even more impressive than winning at a neutral site in which half of the spectators are there for you.

Despite my own inclinations, I have to admit that The Committee is heavily favoring that Ohio State win. Stanford will need to do more than just win against #20 four loss USC, they will have to Dominate.

UNC needs more than simply dominating Clemson.

Ya, they are favoring Ohio State THIS WEEK

Everyone is exactly where they should be this week....

The bad news for Ohio State? They're done, they can't add anything else to their resume

They will be sitting around with conference champs, with nothing but a dominant win over Michigan to top off a largely dissappointing season

If the committee doesn't like NC enough, they're going to pick Stanford, it's that simple

By that line of thinking then you must be thinking that either Stanford or UNC gets in no matter what so long as they win. Oklahoma is done too, so obviously one of those two teams will replace Oklahoma in the top four, OBVIOUSLY because Oklahoma's #3 position is just what they are ranked THIS WEEK. Right?

Oklahoma just beat Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back to win their conference....you are really comparing that situation with Ohio State?

OU has already punched their ticket

Ohio State has no more ground to gain...should have beaten Mich St
12-01-2015 10:01 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:56 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:50 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:38 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:31 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  So Stanford and NC aren't going to jump to the top tier even with conference championships...

All that matters, as always, is the final rankings

The NC haters can't deny the fact that they will be playing the top team in the country in every poll out there....A 12-1 ACC Champ that just dethroned #1 will be valued pretty high....

Stanford also has a chance to slip in if they can stomp USC...

Ohio State has one good win over Michigan...the rest of their schedule isn't that great, and they looked largely mediocre at times. They're going to be left out

Let me repeat. I don't want Ohio State to be in the CFP. Sorry, I don't think they deserved it simply because they showed us their true selves in the final game of the season. That doesn't change the fact that they got placed in the Top Tier while Stanford was placed in the second tier and that UNC was placed in the bottom half of the second tier.

Ohio State probably wouldn't have jumped TCU if they just barely beat Wisconsin. They had to dominate Wisconsin. The same will be the case for a Stanford team that has one more loss than Ohio State and will be playing a team that is 10 ranks lower than the Michigan team that Ohio State played. Ohio State played Michigan AT Michigan at an extremely hostile venue. They didn't just dominate Michigan, they dominated that venue. That is even more impressive than winning at a neutral site in which half of the spectators are there for you.

Despite my own inclinations, I have to admit that The Committee is heavily favoring that Ohio State win. Stanford will need to do more than just win against #20 four loss USC, they will have to Dominate.

UNC needs more than simply dominating Clemson.

Ya, they are favoring Ohio State THIS WEEK

Everyone is exactly where they should be this week....

The bad news for Ohio State? They're done, they can't add anything else to their resume

They will be sitting around with conference champs, with nothing but a dominant win over Michigan to top off a largely dissappointing season

If the committee doesn't like NC enough, they're going to pick Stanford, it's that simple

By that line of thinking then you must be thinking that either Stanford or UNC gets in no matter what so long as they win. Oklahoma is done too, so obviously one of those two teams will replace Oklahoma in the top four, OBVIOUSLY because Oklahoma's #3 position is just what they are ranked THIS WEEK. Right?

Oklahoma just beat Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back to win their conference....you are really comparing that situation with Ohio State?

OU has already punched their ticket

Ohio State has no more ground to gain...should have beaten Mich St

Yes I am making that comparison. I am making it to show how you are being hypocritical with your argument. You are using certain points when they favor your argument but then denying them in other circumstances because you know those other circumstances prove your argument to not be so ironclad.

Oklahoma and Ohio State were voted into the same Tier by The Committee before they ever voted on actual rankings. Stanford and North Carolina were voted into a lower tier than those two. That is how the Committee ranking process works. Learn the basics before you attempt to debate someone that actually bases his prognosis by how the Committee works instead of his own bias. As I said, I don't want Ohio State to make it.
12-01-2015 10:07 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Ohio State is out
while ESPN just shows top 6 on their main graphic look at this:
The voting process generally will include seven rounds of ballots through which the committee members first will select a small pool of teams to be evaluated, then will rank those teams, with the top-ranked teams being placed in the rankings in groups of three or four. Individual committee members’ rankings will be compiled into a composite ranking. Each committee member will independently evaluate an immense amount of information during the process. This evaluation will lead to individual qualitative and quantitative opinions that will inform each member’s votes.

They're in groups of 3 or 4. So it's very possible Stanford was in the same group as Ohio St.
12-01-2015 10:10 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Ohio State is out
actually found an even better thing...
3.In the first ranking step, each member will rank those six teams, one through six, with one being the best. The best team in each member’s ranking will receive one point; second-best two points, etc. The members’ rankings will be added together and the three teams receiving the fewest points will become the top three seeds. The three teams that were not seeded will be held over for the next ranking step.
4.Each member will list the six best remaining teams, in no particular order. The three teams receiving the most votes will be added to the three teams held over to comprise the next ranking step.

So that means UNC was compared in 3rd group with Stanford, Notre Dame, and FSU- and was judged to not be in the top 3 of that group. Even more damning for UNC.
12-01-2015 10:14 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 09:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  In the old days, UNC would get rewarded some by just making it through with just 1 loss. The standards HAVE changed though. you schedule like crap, you aren't going to get rewarded.

True, but they play the top team next week....it is a solid fact that is they win, they will be moving up...

If you are a committee member, you will have (assuming NC and Stanford win):

1. Alabama
2. Big 10 Champ
3. Oklahoma
4.....

And the big debate begins...I already know YOU would have Stanford. Other's might have Ohio State, and still others might have North Carolina....

It all really depends on how North Carolina and Stanford play....if North Carolina were to beat Clemson 50-17, you better believe they’ll have committee members considering them....same with Stanford if they blow out USC

Personally, I would probably have Clemson ahead of Ohio State...

My rankings would be:
1. Alabama
2. Big 10 Champ
3. Oklahoma
4. North Carolina or Stanford
5. North Carolina or Stanford
6. Clemson

Ohio State would drop out of the top 6

North Carolina and Stanford are auditioning this weekend. Ohio State is sitting at home, hoping that last win was enough to counterbalance a largely unimpressive season where they were number 1 and lost ground as the season progressed
12-01-2015 10:16 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Ohio State is out
next weekend doesn't change UNC's 2 FCS games or the South Carolina debacle. Nothing is going to erase that. The committee doesn't want to reward that because then everything they've talked about regarding SOS goes out the window. That's the problem that UNC faces. And they have no answer to that at all whatsoever.
12-01-2015 10:18 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  actually found an even better thing...
3.In the first ranking step, each member will rank those six teams, one through six, with one being the best. The best team in each member’s ranking will receive one point; second-best two points, etc. The members’ rankings will be added together and the three teams receiving the fewest points will become the top three seeds. The three teams that were not seeded will be held over for the next ranking step.
4.Each member will list the six best remaining teams, in no particular order. The three teams receiving the most votes will be added to the three teams held over to comprise the next ranking step.

So that means UNC was compared in 3rd group with Stanford, Notre Dame, and FSU- and was judged to not be in the top 3 of that group. Even more damning for UNC.

Lol

FSU is playing great football right now, and ND has had a great season...so that makes sense....THIS WEEK

If NC beats Clemson, they will have beaten the team that beat both ND and FSU, while simultaneously winning the ACC...obviously NC would move up

Keep grasping at straws
12-01-2015 10:30 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:56 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:50 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:38 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Let me repeat. I don't want Ohio State to be in the CFP. Sorry, I don't think they deserved it simply because they showed us their true selves in the final game of the season. That doesn't change the fact that they got placed in the Top Tier while Stanford was placed in the second tier and that UNC was placed in the bottom half of the second tier.

Ohio State probably wouldn't have jumped TCU if they just barely beat Wisconsin. They had to dominate Wisconsin. The same will be the case for a Stanford team that has one more loss than Ohio State and will be playing a team that is 10 ranks lower than the Michigan team that Ohio State played. Ohio State played Michigan AT Michigan at an extremely hostile venue. They didn't just dominate Michigan, they dominated that venue. That is even more impressive than winning at a neutral site in which half of the spectators are there for you.

Despite my own inclinations, I have to admit that The Committee is heavily favoring that Ohio State win. Stanford will need to do more than just win against #20 four loss USC, they will have to Dominate.

UNC needs more than simply dominating Clemson.

Ya, they are favoring Ohio State THIS WEEK

Everyone is exactly where they should be this week....

The bad news for Ohio State? They're done, they can't add anything else to their resume

They will be sitting around with conference champs, with nothing but a dominant win over Michigan to top off a largely dissappointing season

If the committee doesn't like NC enough, they're going to pick Stanford, it's that simple

By that line of thinking then you must be thinking that either Stanford or UNC gets in no matter what so long as they win. Oklahoma is done too, so obviously one of those two teams will replace Oklahoma in the top four, OBVIOUSLY because Oklahoma's #3 position is just what they are ranked THIS WEEK. Right?

Oklahoma just beat Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back to win their conference....you are really comparing that situation with Ohio State?

OU has already punched their ticket

Ohio State has no more ground to gain...should have beaten Mich St

Yes I am making that comparison. I am making it to show how you are being hypocritical with your argument. You are using certain points when they favor your argument but then denying them in other circumstances because you know those other circumstances prove your argument to not be so ironclad.

Oklahoma and Ohio State were voted into the same Tier by The Committee before they ever voted on actual rankings. Stanford and North Carolina were voted into a lower tier than those two. That is how the Committee ranking process works. Learn the basics before you attempt to debate someone that actually bases his prognosis by how the Committee works instead of his own bias. As I said, I don't want Ohio State to make it.

Good argument....for THIS WEEK

It may be a whole new ball game next weekene....maybe Clemson crushes NC, and Stanford loses....
12-01-2015 10:34 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:34 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:56 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:50 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Ya, they are favoring Ohio State THIS WEEK

Everyone is exactly where they should be this week....

The bad news for Ohio State? They're done, they can't add anything else to their resume

They will be sitting around with conference champs, with nothing but a dominant win over Michigan to top off a largely dissappointing season

If the committee doesn't like NC enough, they're going to pick Stanford, it's that simple

By that line of thinking then you must be thinking that either Stanford or UNC gets in no matter what so long as they win. Oklahoma is done too, so obviously one of those two teams will replace Oklahoma in the top four, OBVIOUSLY because Oklahoma's #3 position is just what they are ranked THIS WEEK. Right?

Oklahoma just beat Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back to win their conference....you are really comparing that situation with Ohio State?

OU has already punched their ticket

Ohio State has no more ground to gain...should have beaten Mich St

Yes I am making that comparison. I am making it to show how you are being hypocritical with your argument. You are using certain points when they favor your argument but then denying them in other circumstances because you know those other circumstances prove your argument to not be so ironclad.

Oklahoma and Ohio State were voted into the same Tier by The Committee before they ever voted on actual rankings. Stanford and North Carolina were voted into a lower tier than those two. That is how the Committee ranking process works. Learn the basics before you attempt to debate someone that actually bases his prognosis by how the Committee works instead of his own bias. As I said, I don't want Ohio State to make it.

Good argument....for THIS WEEK

It may be a whole new ball game next weekene....maybe Clemson crushes NC, and Stanford loses....

Correct, and maybe Alabama loses. 07-coffee3
12-01-2015 10:34 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:34 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:34 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 09:56 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  By that line of thinking then you must be thinking that either Stanford or UNC gets in no matter what so long as they win. Oklahoma is done too, so obviously one of those two teams will replace Oklahoma in the top four, OBVIOUSLY because Oklahoma's #3 position is just what they are ranked THIS WEEK. Right?

Oklahoma just beat Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back to win their conference....you are really comparing that situation with Ohio State?

OU has already punched their ticket

Ohio State has no more ground to gain...should have beaten Mich St

Yes I am making that comparison. I am making it to show how you are being hypocritical with your argument. You are using certain points when they favor your argument but then denying them in other circumstances because you know those other circumstances prove your argument to not be so ironclad.

Oklahoma and Ohio State were voted into the same Tier by The Committee before they ever voted on actual rankings. Stanford and North Carolina were voted into a lower tier than those two. That is how the Committee ranking process works. Learn the basics before you attempt to debate someone that actually bases his prognosis by how the Committee works instead of his own bias. As I said, I don't want Ohio State to make it.

Good argument....for THIS WEEK

It may be a whole new ball game next weekene....maybe Clemson crushes NC, and Stanford loses....

Correct, and maybe Alabama loses. 07-coffee3

We need to make a bet on that :)
12-01-2015 10:40 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:40 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:34 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:34 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:07 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-01-2015 10:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Oklahoma just beat Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State back-to-back-to-back to win their conference....you are really comparing that situation with Ohio State?

OU has already punched their ticket

Ohio State has no more ground to gain...should have beaten Mich St

Yes I am making that comparison. I am making it to show how you are being hypocritical with your argument. You are using certain points when they favor your argument but then denying them in other circumstances because you know those other circumstances prove your argument to not be so ironclad.

Oklahoma and Ohio State were voted into the same Tier by The Committee before they ever voted on actual rankings. Stanford and North Carolina were voted into a lower tier than those two. That is how the Committee ranking process works. Learn the basics before you attempt to debate someone that actually bases his prognosis by how the Committee works instead of his own bias. As I said, I don't want Ohio State to make it.

Good argument....for THIS WEEK

It may be a whole new ball game next weekene....maybe Clemson crushes NC, and Stanford loses....

Correct, and maybe Alabama loses. 07-coffee3

We need to make a bet on that :)

Not a bet I would take. I would bet on Stanford losing to USC or Clemson losing to UNC way before I would ever bet on Alabama losing to Florida.

As you said though, maybe....
12-01-2015 10:42 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Ohio State is out
I've never said that UNC won't move up. They will. But they absolutely have a ceiling of 5.
12-01-2015 10:44 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Ohio State is out
(12-01-2015 10:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  next weekend doesn't change UNC's 2 FCS games or the South Carolina debacle. Nothing is going to erase that. The committee doesn't want to reward that because then everything they've talked about regarding SOS goes out the window. That's the problem that UNC faces. And they have no answer to that at all whatsoever.

Exactly
12-01-2015 10:52 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Ohio State is out
538 puts UNC's chances at 14%, about the same as Ohio State's 16%, FWIW. Stanford is in the same range (13%). Interesting their model thinks Clemson has a chance even if it loses the CCG. It thinks they have a 57% chance at a league title but 77% of making the playoff. The rationale is that their potential 12-1 record with some high quality wins in FSU and ND is still pretty strong when looked at objectively. Not sure I buy it but interesting.

The other thing is that OU is near 100%. This is definitely a year where it pays not to have a CCG. If OU was matched up against Baylor, they would have a decent chance at a loss, which would undoubtedly knock the Big 12 out of the playoff.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coll...s-week-13/
12-01-2015 11:45 PM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Ohio State is out
I think Stanford (if they beat USC) will get in ahead of OSU, and the committee won't lose sleep over it.

However, if Stanford loses AND Clemson lose, I thin the committee will have SERIOUS heartburn. 12-1 Clemson...with two strong wins over top 10 teams. 12-1 UNC with a win over Clemson in the ACC CCG and that's it. Or 11-1, defending NC Ohio State with no good wins but star power on offense and behind the clipboard.

I think they might take OSU in that scenario just to avoid the problem of choosing a loser (Clemson) over the winner (UNC).
12-02-2015 01:14 AM
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