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The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
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xusandy Offline
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The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Dec. 1 is hardly a definitive point in the season, but given the various early tournaments and a scattering of competitive games between major conferences, the results through Dec. 1 are at least suggestive of where the major conferences stand. The Big East is in good shape so far! Villanova is still undefeated and a clear favorite in the league. Xavier and Providence seem to be a bit better than expected and are now ranked in the top 25 in both major polls (AP and Coaches polls), while Butler is ranked in one poll and just outside the top 25 in the other. Georgetown has a somewhat disappointing record to date, but they've played a real meat grinder of a schedule (overconfidence, JTIII?), and have been competitive in their losses to nationally top teams. I expect all 5 of these teams to make the big dance come March, and FWIW, I'll now fearfully predict the order of finish as (drum roll please): Nova first, XU second, a 2 way tie for third, and Providence 5th.

As for the bottom half of the league, Marquette looks to be arriving on the national scene a year earlier than I thought, while Creighton, Seton Hall, and St. John's have all performed a bit better than I expected so far. Any one of those teams could easily upset one of the top 5 if they have a good game. Only lowly Depaul seems to be muddling along, but even they seem to be an above average Division I team.

Bottom Line: The Big East sure looks to me like a top-to-bottom very strong conference again this year. I can't wait to see the first conference vs. conference ratings from KenPom and Sagarin. 05-stirthepot
11-30-2015 06:33 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
I think it's been a good start. I don't think the teams we've beaten this year quite stack up to the teams we beat last year early. Remember by this time last year we had beaten-
#26 VCU
#16 Michigan
#12 UNC
#36 Georgetown(as OOC)
#20 Oklahoma
#39 Stanford
#24 Florida
#42 Notre Dame
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2015 07:13 PM by stever20.)
11-30-2015 07:12 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
and you say well some of those teams weren't good by end of season-
UNC #14
Georgetown #24
Oklahoma #15
Notre Dame #8
VCU #26
SF Austin #30
Murray St #38

5 great wins, and then 2 other really solid ones.

now go to this year-
we have 3 wins against teams getting votes in the AP poll today-
Marquette vs LSU
Providence vs Arizona
Xavier vs Dayton

in the next 8 days- have a chance to get 4 huge wins-
Butler @ #17 Cincy
Seton Hall @ #29 George Washington
Georgetown vs #14 Syracuse
Villanova vs #6 Oklahoma

I will say though- the perception of what the Big East has done is phenominal.
11-30-2015 07:25 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
nice win for Butler tonight. But Seton Hall with a tough loss, and Creighton in a war with Arizona St. And St John's got blown out by Fordham.
12-02-2015 10:37 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
seeing something on RPI Forecast that is interesting. Right now for the league- they have the projected league OOC SOS being #15 this year. Compare this to last year where the Big East was the top one of all the power conferences- and only behind 5 conferences like the MEAC who do a ton of buy games....

Hopefully the projection is a bit inaccurate- because that could wind up costing the conference big time.

The other thing that has happened-
last year conference went 94-31 .7520 winning percentage OOC
this year conference is 50-17 .7463 winning percentage OOC

So a weaker winning percentage, and a worse SOS. Really need to win up a few of those games. Already have 6 teams with at least 2 losses, and 3 with 3 losses. You just do not want to have many if any teams going into conference play with 4 losses, because that means a 9-9 conference season will not get you into the tourney all that often.
12-04-2015 02:04 AM
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hoops22 Offline
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
(12-04-2015 02:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  seeing something on RPI Forecast that is interesting. Right now for the league- they have the projected league OOC SOS being #15 this year. Compare this to last year where the Big East was the top one of all the power conferences- and only behind 5 conferences like the MEAC who do a ton of buy games....

Hopefully the projection is a bit inaccurate- because that could wind up costing the conference big time.

The other thing that has happened-
last year conference went 94-31 .7520 winning percentage OOC
this year conference is 50-17 .7463 winning percentage OOC

So a weaker winning percentage, and a worse SOS. Really need to win up a few of those games. Already have 6 teams with at least 2 losses, and 3 with 3 losses. You just do not want to have many if any teams going into conference play with 4 losses, because that means a 9-9 conference season will not get you into the tourney all that often.

Stever, again are you for real? Last years 94-31 winning percentage of .7530 rounds out to 75%. This years .7463 winning percentage rounds out to guess what? 75%! So your argument is that people should be sounding the alarm because the league has fallen by hundredths of a percentage point? Do you acknowledge the insanity of this, and understand why this is the type of nonsense that rubs people the wrong way. As far as SOS goes, how does this years schedule relative to the P5 stack up against last years numbers. I don't know the answer to that, but assume since you didn't address it, the numbers are similar, and don't promote the sky is falling argument you relentlessly profess.
12-04-2015 10:36 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
Actually the winning percentage does translate into 1 fewer win.

The SOS this year projected is #15. The P5's OOC SOS is 1,2,3,5,8. A10 is #10 and MWC is #13. Only ahead of the AAC by 2 slots(they're #17)- by .5025 to .5001. Compared to last year where the BE was ahead of all 7 of those.
12-04-2015 10:47 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
and just for the record- last years SOS number was .5145 to show how much lower projected the SOS is for us this year. .5145 would be #5
12-04-2015 10:51 AM
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MUAvalanche Offline
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
(12-04-2015 10:51 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and just for the record- last years SOS number was .5145 to show how much lower projected the SOS is for us this year. .5145 would be #5

It fluctuates greatly this time of year with expected results. MU was expected to go 4-14 in conference play 2 weeks ago, and now is expected to go 7-11. On MU's schedule, Wisconsin and LSU have seen expectations drop in 2 weeks from where they were. Granted, MU feasting on cupcakes 5 more times won't help.
12-04-2015 11:21 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: The 2015-16 Big East Season to Date
(12-04-2015 11:21 AM)MUAvalanche Wrote:  
(12-04-2015 10:51 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and just for the record- last years SOS number was .5145 to show how much lower projected the SOS is for us this year. .5145 would be #5

It fluctuates greatly this time of year with expected results. MU was expected to go 4-14 in conference play 2 weeks ago, and now is expected to go 7-11. On MU's schedule, Wisconsin and LSU have seen expectations drop in 2 weeks from where they were. Granted, MU feasting on cupcakes 5 more times won't help.

There's a ton of cupcakes left for the entire conference...
Villanova- 3 games left 197 or worse out of 6 games.
Xavier- 1 game left 258 Wright St out of 5 games
Butler- 4 games 183 or worse out of 6 games
PC- 3 games 232 or worse out of 5 games
Georgetown- 3 games 178 or worse out of 7 games
Creighton- 4 games 238 or worse out of 6 games
Seton Hall- 4 games 235 or worse out of 5 games
Marquette- 5 games 299 or worse out of 6 games
DePaul- 2 games 207 or worse out of 6 games
St John's- 4 games 162 or worse out of 5 games

So outside of really Xavier, Georgetown, and DePaul- everyone else has at least half their games against cupcakes. I agree that the projections fluctuate some- but with 33 games left out of 57 against teams 162 or worse- that's going to take it's toll on the SOS.
12-04-2015 11:30 AM
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