(11-30-2015 11:25 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:20 AM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The ACC has 3 teams in the top 10 because the rest of the conference is GARBAGE. UNC didn't play either FSU or Clemson.

Here's sagarin ratings for ACC this week-
4,6,35,47,80,84,93
13,34,42,46,53,57,76
here's ratings for Pac 12 this week-
8,9,26,32,49,109,12,25,28,40,56,90

So ACC with 3 top 30 teams
Pac 12 with 6 top 30 teams
top 40- ACC 5 P12 8.

The Pac 12 is a MUCH stronger conference.

I have a question about the access bowls that I had last week. Lets say for the sake of argument UNC wins Stanford loses and OSU makes the playoff. The final rankings have UNC 5 Clemson 6 and FSU 7. Would all three be in Access bowls with the G5 representative?

North Carolina and Clemson would be in for sure....

If Iowa loses, it will probably be a Fiesta Bowl decision between FSU and Iowa...I wonder who'd they would take :)

it's not the Fiesta Bowl's decision. It's chosen by the committee.

(11-30-2015 11:20 AM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The ACC has 3 teams in the top 10 because the rest of the conference is GARBAGE. UNC didn't play either FSU or Clemson.

Here's sagarin ratings for ACC this week-
4,6,35,47,80,84,93
13,34,42,46,53,57,76
here's ratings for Pac 12 this week-
8,9,26,32,49,109,12,25,28,40,56,90

So ACC with 3 top 30 teams
Pac 12 with 6 top 30 teams
top 40- ACC 5 P12 8.

The Pac 12 is a MUCH stronger conference.

I have a question about the access bowls that I had last week. Lets say for the sake of argument UNC wins Stanford loses and OSU makes the playoff. The final rankings have UNC 5 Clemson 6 and FSU 7. Would all three be in Access bowls with the G5 representative?

UH/Temple winner and at least top 7 in CFP Poll go to the access bowls. Rose is guaranteed B1G and Pac 12 teams that don't make playoffs. Sugar is guaranteed Big 12 and SEC schools that don't make playoffs. If those 4 were below #11, they would still get in.

Most likely B1G and Big 12 #2 will be ranked in top 9. If Alabama and Stanford win, SEC and Pac 12 #2 will be well below. So in that case it will be Florida or Ole Miss and Oregon plus the top 9 ranked teams plus the UH/Temple winner.

(11-30-2015 11:09 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem is the Pac 12 is stronger than the ACC.

well, when I look at the top 10 in just about every poll, I see 3 ACC teams and 1 PAC 12 team

The PAC 12 has been overrated all year long...

Almost all computers have the PAC significantly stronger than the ACC. Many of them have the ACC as not much stronger than the G5 AAC.

The ACC has been really weak this year, and even within the ACC, North Carolina avoided playing the two good teams - FSU and Clemson - during the season. They didn't play Notre Dame either.

One thing must be remembered, the CFP rankings start fresh each week. It isn't like a regular poll. Remember the last CFP ranking that moved teams that didn't even play? Look at how far TCU dropped after winning. The committee will put whoever they want in there no matter what they were ranked the week before. To say they won't jump a team over others is false since it's a fresh poll each week.

(11-30-2015 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:09 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem is the Pac 12 is stronger than the ACC.

well, when I look at the top 10 in just about every poll, I see 3 ACC teams and 1 PAC 12 team

The PAC 12 has been overrated all year long...

Almost all computers have the PAC significantly stronger than the ACC. Many of them have the ACC as not much stronger than the G5 AAC.

The ACC has been really weak this year, and even within the ACC, North Carolina avoided playing the two good teams - FSU and Clemson - during the season. They didn't play Notre Dame either.

Bring in the PAC! My money would be on the ACC.

(11-30-2015 03:29 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:09 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem is the Pac 12 is stronger than the ACC.

well, when I look at the top 10 in just about every poll, I see 3 ACC teams and 1 PAC 12 team

The PAC 12 has been overrated all year long...

Almost all computers have the PAC significantly stronger than the ACC. Many of them have the ACC as not much stronger than the G5 AAC.

The ACC has been really weak this year, and even within the ACC, North Carolina avoided playing the two good teams - FSU and Clemson - during the season. They didn't play Notre Dame either.

Bring in the PAC! My money would be on the ACC.

Well, we'll see some of these matchups in bowl season. But as of now, the ACC clearly had the weaker season than the PAC, and as I noted, UNC didn't even face the best of that weak conference. Including Notre Dame as a rotational, they faced zero of the three best possible opponents.

Combine that with an OOC schedule that consisted of SEC last-place South Carolina, an Illinois team that finished 10th in the B1G, and two FCS teams, and that's just a really bad, really weak schedule.

Really, there's no way UNC should even be mentioned as a playoff possibility.

(11-30-2015 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 03:29 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:09 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem is the Pac 12 is stronger than the ACC.

well, when I look at the top 10 in just about every poll, I see 3 ACC teams and 1 PAC 12 team

The PAC 12 has been overrated all year long...

Almost all computers have the PAC significantly stronger than the ACC. Many of them have the ACC as not much stronger than the G5 AAC.

The ACC has been really weak this year, and even within the ACC, North Carolina avoided playing the two good teams - FSU and Clemson - during the season. They didn't play Notre Dame either.

Bring in the PAC! My money would be on the ACC.

Well, we'll see some of these matchups in bowl season. But as of now, the ACC clearly had the weaker season than the PAC, and as I noted, UNC didn't even face the best of that weak conference. Including Notre Dame as a rotational, they faced zero of the three best possible opponents.

Combine that with an OOC schedule that consisted of SEC last-place South Carolina, an Illinois team that finished 10th in the B1G, and two FCS teams, and that's just a really bad, really weak schedule.

Really, there's no way UNC should even be mentioned as a playoff possibility.

NC SOS is stronger than Iowas, should they be considered? SOS is only 1 metric that's considered.

(11-30-2015 04:51 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 03:29 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 11:09 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  well, when I look at the top 10 in just about every poll, I see 3 ACC teams and 1 PAC 12 team

The PAC 12 has been overrated all year long...

Almost all computers have the PAC significantly stronger than the ACC. Many of them have the ACC as not much stronger than the G5 AAC.

The ACC has been really weak this year, and even within the ACC, North Carolina avoided playing the two good teams - FSU and Clemson - during the season. They didn't play Notre Dame either.

Bring in the PAC! My money would be on the ACC.

Well, we'll see some of these matchups in bowl season. But as of now, the ACC clearly had the weaker season than the PAC, and as I noted, UNC didn't even face the best of that weak conference. Including Notre Dame as a rotational, they faced zero of the three best possible opponents.

Combine that with an OOC schedule that consisted of SEC last-place South Carolina, an Illinois team that finished 10th in the B1G, and two FCS teams, and that's just a really bad, really weak schedule.

Really, there's no way UNC should even be mentioned as a playoff possibility.

NC SOS is stronger than Iowas, should they be considered? SOS is only 1 metric that's considered.

Iowa's schedule is weak - they too dodged all the tough teams in their conference - but 4 out of 5 computers still say it's tougher than UNC's.

And Iowa is unbeaten. If you are going to play a soft-soap schedule, the least you need to do to merit the playoffs is go unbeaten.

And, if Iowa finishes with one loss, they won't make the playoffs. So no way should UNC make the playoffs with a loss either.

ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

(11-30-2015 09:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

The committee starts fresh each week. Why was TCU dropped last season after winning? This isn't the old poll system.

(11-30-2015 09:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

The committee starts fresh each week. Why was TCU dropped last season after winning? This isn't the old poll system.

Right. But my point is UNC isn't #8 in the ESPN playoff picture. That's #8 in the AP poll. HUGE difference there.

(11-30-2015 09:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

The committee starts fresh each week. Why was TCU dropped last season after winning? This isn't the old poll system.

Right. But my point is UNC isn't #8 in the ESPN playoff picture. That's #8 in the AP poll. HUGE difference there.

We shall see where the committee ranks them at on Tuesday night. I say right around the 8 range.

So again, Why are We doing a 4 school play off if like the BCS was, it's still only a popularity contest at best with the committee that says Only Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, Texas, Florida, USC, ND, Michigan State and other Marquis names need apply. That alone screws UNC, Baylor, Iowa as also rans but sorry Your name alone carries No Water here.........Move along.

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58).

As I've said, the great bulk of computers have UNC's schedule as significantly worse. That's why Massey'c composite has UNC at #12.

My guess for tonight's reveal on ESPN:

1. Clemson (12-0)
2. Alabama (11-1)
3. Oklahoma (11-1)
4. Iowa (12-0)
5. Michigan State (11-1)
6. Stanford (10-2)
7. North Carolina (11-1)
8. Ohio State (11-1)
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
10.TCU (10-2)
11.Florida State (10-2)
12.Baylor (9-2)
13.Florida (10-2)

I believe that Oklahoma and the winner of the Iowa/Michigan State game are assured of being in the playoff. Clemson and Alabama must win their CCG to be guaranteed a spot.

I also believe that if they do win, both UNC and Florida will be out of the NY6 picture. The winner of the Houston/Temple game is assured of the G5 slot in the NY6.

If UNC were to beat Clemson, they would be assured an NY6 slot as conference champion, and Clemson would get a second bid for the ACC. Florida State would be left out. If UNC loses, FSU gets the ACC's second bid.

If Florida were to beat Alabama, there's not much point in discussing this further, as hell would have frozen over before any more games could be played. But just hypothetically, if this were to happen, the Gators would get the guaranteed NY6 slot, and Stanford would move into the fourth playoff spot if they beat USC. This scenario puts the 11th P5 spot up for grabs, and I think the committee would put FSU ahead of one of the B12 teams, giving both conferences two spots, along with the SEC.

The only way anyone else can get into the playoff is for both Clemson and Alabama to lose. In this scenario, Ohio State gets in if Michigan State beats Iowa (meaning OSU's only loss is last second to a 12-1 team ranked#3). If Iowa wins, OSU's loss is now to an 11-2 team, and Notre Dame sneaks in the back door.

(11-30-2015 09:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

The committee starts fresh each week. Why was TCU dropped last season after winning? This isn't the old poll system.

But ... it pretty much is. For example, last year, in the polls that came out after the CCG's, if you combined the AP and Coaches polls, TCU dropped two spots in that combined poll, from 4 to 6, despite winning their last game 55-0 or whatever.

And, the combined AP/Coaches poll had the same four teams in the playoff as did the CFP. The only difference was that FSU was #2 in the combined poll but #3 in the playoffs, but that's just shuffling chairs around. The bottom line was that the CFP picked the same four teams as did the traditional polls.

The notion that the CFP is radically different from the polls just doesn't seem to hold water. That's why I agree with you that UNC is likely to be about #8 in the CFP tonight. That's where they are in the polls this week.

(12-01-2015 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58).

As I've said, the great bulk of computers have UNC's schedule as significantly worse. That's why Massey'c composite has UNC at #12.

I don't bother looking at computers, I find it a waste of time. I trust my own 2 eyes & judgement. Besides, those numbers I gave don't show a "significant" difference. They are 1 better than Iowa & within 16 of Ohio St & Michigan St.

One thing that rankings don't show you is what is the actual difference between them. What is the difference between 1 & 20. For example, say someone finishes a marathon first but is only 1 second ahead of the 20th place finisher, that's a close race. But if they finish 5 minutes ahead of the second place finisher, that's not a close race & #20 is even further behind.

Computers are a good tool, if you know how to use them, but they aren't the only tool in the toolbox. You can't build a house with just a hammer.

(12-01-2015 11:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

The committee starts fresh each week. Why was TCU dropped last season after winning? This isn't the old poll system.

But ... it pretty much is. For example, last year, in the polls that came out after the CCG's, if you combined the AP and Coaches polls, TCU dropped two spots in that combined poll, from 4 to 6, despite winning their last game 55-0 or whatever.

And, the combined AP/Coaches poll had the same four teams in the playoff as did the CFP. The only difference was that FSU was #2 in the combined poll but #3 in the playoffs, but that's just shuffling chairs around. The bottom line was that the CFP picked the same four teams as did the traditional polls.

The notion that the CFP is radically different from the polls just doesn't seem to hold water. That's why I agree with you that UNC is likely to be about #8 in the CFP tonight. That's where they are in the polls this week.

Don't the polls change to resemble the CFP rankings once they're released? Didn't the CFP rankings move teams around after the final week even if they didn't play?

If NC is around 8 that puts them in position for the committee to place them 4th should they beat Clemson.

I'm not saying that NC is one of the 4 best teams in the country, there not, but the committee won't leave out a 1 loss P5 conference champ. They will ignore the SOS & promote whatever metric that helps their cause, like beating #1 Clemson.

(12-01-2015 11:55 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(12-01-2015 11:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 09:11 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  ESPN has their SOS very close, NC 62 & Iowa at 63. They are right there with Michigan St (53) & Ohio State (58). So I guess by your metric the B1G should be left out. You can't put all of your focus on a single metric. The FPI has Michigan St at 14, NC at 15 & Iowa at 26 for example. These numbers put NC in the range of the top 3 B1G teams, this before playing Clemson. The Heels are #8 in ESPN playoff picture currently.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

that's #8 in the AP poll.

I think for one, it's tough to see the committee after last week having FSU ahead of UNC, and FSU whipping Florida and UNC winning what by 10 over NC State- why exactly would UNC pass FSU?

The committee starts fresh each week. Why was TCU dropped last season after winning? This isn't the old poll system.

But ... it pretty much is. For example, last year, in the polls that came out after the CCG's, if you combined the AP and Coaches polls, TCU dropped two spots in that combined poll, from 4 to 6, despite winning their last game 55-0 or whatever.

And, the combined AP/Coaches poll had the same four teams in the playoff as did the CFP. The only difference was that FSU was #2 in the combined poll but #3 in the playoffs, but that's just shuffling chairs around. The bottom line was that the CFP picked the same four teams as did the traditional polls.

The notion that the CFP is radically different from the polls just doesn't seem to hold water. That's why I agree with you that UNC is likely to be about #8 in the CFP tonight. That's where they are in the polls this week.

Don't the polls change to resemble the CFP rankings once they're released? Didn't the CFP rankings move teams around after the final week even if they didn't play?

If NC is around 8 that puts them in position for the committee to place them 4th should they beat Clemson.

I'm not saying that NC is one of the 4 best teams in the country, there not, but the committee won't leave out a 1 loss P5 conference champ. They will ignore the SOS & promote whatever metric that helps their cause, like beating #1 Clemson.

I believe the committee would put an 11-2 PAC champion Stanford, with several quality wins, over a 12-1 UNC with only one quality win and one bad loss.