ESPN is in a difficult position. Its revenues are actually dropping. This article explains why (and why revenues will likely continue to drop): ESPN Lost 7M Subscribers

ESPN would love to simply pay less to the P5 conferences at the next renewals. But ESPN is still in a competitive environment, and will desperately need to hold onto control of all of the major conferences, including the B1G - which has a renewal coming up. The B1G wants much more $$, and FOX and NBC are lurking.

The answer is consolidation. The only way that it can continue to pay the conferences at least the same money without losing margin will be to move the BIGXII's most valuable properties into other conferences. In that way, they can pay more to the 4 surviving conferences and, more importantly, pay at least as much or more on a per-team-basis.

I see ESPN trying to force Texas and Oklahoma into the PAC, SEC or B1G.

Importantly, this will not be part of some grand scheme to get to four 16-team super conferences. ESPN couldn't care less about that - and forcing what will be the P4 to take the remains of the BIGXII and AAC will be viewed by them as more mouths to feed.

The ACC could also be the victim of the same orchestration, but the BIGXII seems weaker.

(11-26-2015 02:50 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  ESPN is in a difficult position. Its revenues are actually dropping. This article explains why (and why revenues will likely continue to drop): ESPN Lost 7M Subscribers

ESPN would love to simply pay less to the P5 conferences at the next renewals. But ESPN is still in a competitive environment, and will desperately need to hold onto control of all of the major conferences, including the B1G - which has a renewal coming up. The B1G wants much more $$, and FOX and NBC are lurking.

The answer is consolidation. The only way that it can continue to pay the conferences at least the same money without losing margin will be to move the BIGXII's most valuable properties into other conferences. In that way, they can pay more to the 4 surviving conferences and, more importantly, pay at least as much or more on a per-team-basis.

I see ESPN trying to force Texas and Oklahoma into the PAC, SEC or B1G.

Importantly, this will not be part of some grand scheme to get to four 16-team super conferences. ESPN couldn't care less about that - and forcing what will be the P4 to take the remains of the BIGXII and AAC will be viewed by them as more mouths to feed.

The ACC could also be the victim of the same orchestration, but the BIGXII seems weaker.

I think the bubble burst for tv payouts. A la cart is the death nail to conferences like the big 10 racking major money. The Big 12 was on Orlando radio last year saying that they will get $40 million per team next negotiation. Good luck with that.

Sucks even for us getting a huge pay increase. Lucky enough ours is so low it likely won't drop.

People are sick of the nfl lite

The interesting concept is the "what happens if" they lose another several million subscribers and their revenue drops to $4.7B and already have a yearly obligation of $6B.
Would they need to start selling off product? Would the ACC and Big XII go up for sale?
If this is a trend then divesting could be in ESPN's future.
Sometimes you just get too big and small error cost huge amounts of money.

I think the AAC better plan on staying together for a while. There is zero chance that Fox or espn wants to add more costs and the big 12 members are not going to want a pay cut.

If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

(11-26-2015 05:11 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

To be honest all of us are used to little tv revenue. I don't see them dropping our $2 million payout. C-Usa is about to get a shock. My guess is maybe $300k per team. Literally nobody wants their hoops and little interest in their football.

I see that the loss of 3 million espn subscribers will mean $200 million off the top line.

And big east hoops getting $4 million per team. They will get whacked when they come up for negotiations

(11-26-2015 05:24 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  And big east hoops getting $4 million per team. They will get whacked when they come up for negotiations

Demonstrably bad ratings. Disaster for FOX.

(11-26-2015 05:17 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:11 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

To be honest all of us are used to little tv revenue. I don't see them dropping our $2 million payout. C-Usa is about to get a shock. My guess is maybe $300k per team. Literally nobody wants their hoops and little interest in their football.

Agree. See them as having the same value as the Sun Belt. To many start up schools with fan bases that are small and uninterested in the product.

(11-26-2015 06:34 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:17 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:11 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

To be honest all of us are used to little tv revenue. I don't see them dropping our $2 million payout. C-Usa is about to get a shock. My guess is maybe $300k per team. Literally nobody wants their hoops and little interest in their football.

Agree. See them as having the same value as the Sun Belt. To many start up schools with fan bases that are small and uninterested in the product.

The Sun Belt and C-USA need to be "reclassified" as FCS. It would save everyone time and money. No more bogus "FBS" games against no-name schools.

I don't see the conference bubble yet. The Big Ten will get big money this Spring. I suspect, the Big Ten will try to continue some kind of relationship with ESPN or ABC but move most of their games to their network, Fox, and FS1. Fox is going to pay big money to secure these games. The Big Ten will seek some kind of relationship with ESPN/ABC so they will not be blackballed from the network.

(11-26-2015 06:38 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 06:34 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:17 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:11 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

To be honest all of us are used to little tv revenue. I don't see them dropping our $2 million payout. C-Usa is about to get a shock. My guess is maybe $300k per team. Literally nobody wants their hoops and little interest in their football.

Agree. See them as having the same value as the Sun Belt. To many start up schools with fan bases that are small and uninterested in the product.

The Sun Belt and C-USA need to be "reclassified" as FCS. It would save everyone time and money. No more bogus "FBS" games against no-name schools.

UConn should have went to the Big East in BB and dropped football back to FCS. Since moving up more than half your seasons have been losing ones, you have never finished ranked, never won an outright conference championship, and have some of the lowest football attendance in your league.

See how that works both ways?

(11-26-2015 09:18 PM)banker Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 06:38 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 06:34 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:17 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:11 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

To be honest all of us are used to little tv revenue. I don't see them dropping our $2 million payout. C-Usa is about to get a shock. My guess is maybe $300k per team. Literally nobody wants their hoops and little interest in their football.

Agree. See them as having the same value as the Sun Belt. To many start up schools with fan bases that are small and uninterested in the product.

The Sun Belt and C-USA need to be "reclassified" as FCS. It would save everyone time and money. No more bogus "FBS" games against no-name schools.

UConn should have went to the Big East in BB and dropped football back to FCS. Since moving up more than half your seasons have been losing ones, you have never finished ranked, never won an outright conference championship, and have some of the lowest football attendance in your league.

See how that works both ways?

We did win an outright championship in 2010, UConn has had quite a few winning seasons (5 in a row at one point), and our attendance is still above 30k. Btw, Rice and Marshall would be FBS independents in my plan (only two brand-name schools).

What about Southern Miss?

And in 2010 you were a Big East Co Champ. Oh, and you are averaging 28k this year.

(11-26-2015 09:26 PM)banker Wrote:  What about Southern Miss?

And in 2010 you were a Big East Co Champ. Oh, and you are averaging 28k this year.

We got the BCS bid, and Southern Miss is NOT a brand name.

(11-26-2015 05:17 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 05:11 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  If this happens, I don't think it will be bad, from a money perspective, for the AAC. But it will be bad for the AAC teams who think that P5 admission is just around the corner for them.

To be honest all of us are used to little tv revenue. I don't see them dropping our $2 million payout. C-Usa is about to get a shock. My guess is maybe $300k per team. Literally nobody wants their hoops and little interest in their football.

And you know this how? Fox has several regional sports networks which all need content. As for little interest in their football, tell me why CUSA received the bigger check from the CFP last year. CUSA had a good year last year. The AAC has done well this year. A couple of years ago it was the MWC (remember they had a good Fresno State in addition to Boise at one time) Before you start issuing proclamations you might want to wait and see if this year's success can be sustained for any period of time.

By the way, people that I have spoken with who are in the communications industry (station owners, production people who contract with ESPN and Fox for games etc. ) don't agree with you. While they don't expect any great increase, they don't expect any great loss either. And that goes for the entire G5. As to the P5 they don't expect any increases for them either. The entire television model is going to change over the next 10 years. The networks who are creative and work with conferences to meet the challenge, will be the ones that are successful.

(11-26-2015 09:28 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(11-26-2015 09:26 PM)banker Wrote:  What about Southern Miss?

And in 2010 you were a Big East Co Champ. Oh, and you are averaging 28k this year.

We got the BCS bid, and Southern Miss is NOT a brand name.

Uhh.... Yes. They are. To anyone south of Kentucky (which ends up being the majority of college football fans), they are VERY well known.

the problem with espn is half their programing isn't games any more - its just talking heads yammering away all dang day