Didn't see this posted elsewhere but Hero Sports has us going to finals, even sans Vad. I think we have the ideal bracket seedings to do it. Jacksonville State didn't have the most challenging schedule, Southern Utah could be the best team on our half the bracket.

http://herosports.com/collegefootball/20...edictions/

Awesome!!

I could see this happening. Jax State worries me, but think we are legitimately better than most teams on our half of the bracket. We got a very nice draw, and would be a bit disappointed if we don't make it to at least the semi's this year. For once "regionalization" came out favorably for us.

Southern Utah at JMU sounds good to me.

NDSU would have to beat SDSU, Northern Iowa, and Illinois St to get to Frisco in this scenario. All MVC teams.

(11-24-2015 01:40 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  NDSU would have to beat SDSU, Northern Iowa, and Illinois St to get to Frisco in this scenario. All MVC teams.

This actually is more feasible than I initially thought. While NDSU has shown some kinks in the armor, they are still very much in the hunt for Frisco:

NDSU's two losses this year were to Montana and South Dakota (both by 3pts).

They beat SDSU 28-7, UNI 31-28.
Illinois St. did not play NDSU, but lost to SDSU 25-20.

Alright - some of you must know way more about these other teams in our bracket than I do or have seen them play.
the teams that worry me ( sans UNH of course) are Mcneese / Southern Utah and Jacksonville.

what is it about these teams that will make us the favorite / able to beat them - honest question - know nothing about them ?

It looks like they're just using their computer formula. Is that adjusted for the fact that we don't have Vad anymore?

(11-24-2015 02:12 PM)jmufbs Wrote:  Alright - some of you must know way more about these other teams in our bracket than I do or have seen them play.
the teams that worry me ( sans UNH of course) are Mcneese / Southern Utah and Jacksonville.

what is it about these teams that will make us the favorite / able to beat them - honest question - know nothing about them ?

McNeese - while "undefeated" played a pathetic schedule, we're talking teams similiar to Morehead State/Lehigh that we would crush (eg: Incarnate Word, Nicholls State, Abilene Christian). They are one of the weakest seeds IMO and will be exposed.

Southern Utah, Lost 55-10 to SDSU. Their best win was Weber State 44-0. While they are a "decent" team that could pull an upset on us, I feel they are very beatable and haven't faced a lot of strong competition.

Jacksonville St: Only loss was overtime against Auburn. They do worry me, though most of their compeition was also weak (teams like Murray State and Austin Peay).

(11-24-2015 02:22 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  It looks like they're just using their computer formula. Is that adjusted for the fact that we don't have Vad anymore?

Their formula is based on results, not things like active players or how ugly a team's wins come about. They have us ranked #4 and their top three teams are on the other side of the bracket. Regardless of how awful we may have played, if you think about it we recovered enough without Vad to play W&M close at home, beat a team that beat W&M, and beat a team that beat Richmond the week before. With luck, focus, and a hot steak we could win out our half of the bracket. It's a long shot but there just aren't any dominant teams like NDSU of years past. Keep in mind Liberty beat Montana and Coastal this year. The Richmond/W&M winner will show us just how strong the MVC is.

Why is jax state the 4 seed? Meh

(11-24-2015 01:40 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  NDSU would have to beat SDSU, Northern Iowa, and Illinois St to get to Frisco in this scenario. All MVC teams.

The strongest teams in the entire playoff are (in order):
NDSU
Illinois St
(pretty decent gap in metrics)
SDSU
Northern Iowa

Any of these four teams would/should be favored over any other team in the field at a neutral site. They also all happen to be MVC teams and they are all slated to have to go through each other to get to Frisco. It seems very unfair that these four teams were all placed on the same half of the bracket and a team like JMU or Jax St gets to avoid these teams until Frisco.

Jacksonville St is the 5th strongest team in the playoffs.

McNeese and, especially, Charleston Southern are way overseeded. McNeese is approximately the 12th strongest team to make the field and CSU is the 18th strongest.

For those that have complained about a 6 win team getting in, you are wrong to complain. There is not a precedent being set that 6 wins is good enough. This is a one time exception based on the situation. WIU is the 16th strongest team in the field (better than the #8 seed CSU) and finished with the same conference record (5-3) as SDSU and NIU the 3rd and 4th best teams in the field. WIU's OOC losses were to FBS Illinois and playoff team CCU and their OOC win was over playoff team EIU. The MVC is obviously and easily the strongest FCS conference and by a wide margin. If there has ever been a conference to deserve 5 entrants into the field it is the MVC this year. A respectable showing in the strongest conference plus a good OOC win and no bad OOC losses = playoffs. If WIU had scheduled an FCS cupcake instead of Illinois and gotten a 7th win instead of an FBS loss it would have been easier to digest, but their resume is strong either way.

JMU fans should be afraid of Southern Utah who would be favored over JMU on a Neutral Field (JMU might be a small fave since the game would be at BFS, but maybe not once you factor in the loss of VL2), but JMU has much bigger fish to fry in a likely matchup with NH. JMU should be a decent favorite in that game but anyone that has watched JMU finish 2-2 without Lee obviously realizes that the Duuuuukes may be one and done in the playoffs for the second straight year.

The biggest hope is that Chattanooga knocks off Jax St (or to a lesser extent of likelihood CCU, Citadel or CSU). This happening would be the dream scenario / perfect storm for JMU and would send the playoffs through BFS on the way to Frisco.

(11-24-2015 02:44 PM)jmu-fan-1981 Wrote:  Why is jax state the 4 seed? Meh

what?

Playoff injuries can change things very quickly.

Personally: I just want to see a CONSISTENT JMU offense and defense that tackles. I think we can go deep in this bracket if No Injuries, Consistent Offense, and Defense that tackles limiting YAC.

(11-24-2015 02:48 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 02:44 PM)jmu-fan-1981 Wrote:  Why is jax state the 4 seed? Meh

what?

i meant 7... shouldn't they be 2?

(11-24-2015 02:52 PM)jmu-fan-1981 Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 02:48 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 02:44 PM)jmu-fan-1981 Wrote:  Why is jax state the 4 seed? Meh

what?

i meant 7... shouldn't they be 2?

Everyone's metrics are unique. Apparently Hero Sports thinks Jax St is the 7th best team despite their official NCAA seeding of 1. Even though the metrics I look at has Jax St at 5, I am not shocked to see them rated 7th. As was previously mentioned, their schedule is fairly soft in comparison to some of the other teams in the field.

(11-24-2015 02:37 PM)2Buck Wrote:  Keep in mind Liberty beat Montana and Coastal this year. The Richmond/W&M winner will show us just how strong the MVC is.

The thought crossed my mind that we could meet either RU or W&M in Frisco. Hope that doesn't happen, because the possibility of losing a NC to either one makes me want to puke. Would much rather face NDSU or Illinois St. if we make it that far. Beyond that it would be great to be the team that ends NDSUs current reign.

(11-24-2015 02:22 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  It looks like they're just using their computer formula. Is that adjusted for the fact that we don't have Vad anymore?

Yeah I was just about to say this. This site is purely computer based predictions. It's taking into account our stats for the entire season but not the fact that we're missing a key player.
If they provided written justifications for each matchup, it would easier to believe this isn't purely a computer generated bracket.

If we had Vad...sure. As of now, I'm not convinced UNH won't come in and just give us one of those old fashioned butt whippings we've come to expect from them the past 5 years or so.

Okay after looking at it more closely, the rankings in that herosports projected playoff bracket are based on their bennett rankings, which is a computer based ranking system. They have JMU as the 4th best team in FCS when compiling our entire season performance, record, stats, strength of schedule, etc. It is NOT taking into account that we are lacking our biggest playmaker that contributed to those stats.
The 5th and 6th ranked teams are Dartmouth and Harvard, so Jacksonville State would actually be the 5th best team, not the 7th.