The Big Ten Conference is expected to start negotiating its new media rights deal in the spring. The last big sports rights deal of the decade, common wisdom has long been that the conference will command huge increases over the 10-year, $1 billion deal it has with ESPN and the six-year, $72 million deal it has with CBS for basketball. Both deals run through the 2016-17 seasons.

Common wisdom, however, could run into market realities, where a smaller cable TV universe will put pressure on how much networks can afford to pay out.

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My bet is that the conference will see a huge rights fee increase and that ESPN and Fox Sports will come up with money to split the rights. Two significant factors, though, bear watching — either of which could throw a wrench into the Big Ten’s aspirations for a big payday.

First: Will ESPN’s recent round of cost-cutting affect how much the Disney-owned channel can offer?

Second: Fox Sports already has a massive rights portfolio that could keep its bid from reaching the heights that the sports market saw last year.

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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journ...Media.aspx

My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

What about realignment? Can the B1G increase its pro rata payout by adding teams from the Big 12 or ACC?

My thought is that Oklahoma or Texas would be the big fish that could help deliver the jumbo size pro rata payout to the B1G. But, new B1G markets in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia (and Oklahoma and Texas) would be enough to at least add enough value to deliver a slight payout increase. They would also expand the B1G network footprint tremendously and could add nice value for the network - outside of the top-tier media deal.

(11-24-2015 12:36 PM)YNot Wrote:  What about realignment? Can the B1G increase its pro rata payout by adding teams from the Big 12 or ACC?

My thought is that Oklahoma or Texas would be the big fish that could help deliver the jumbo size pro rata payout to the B1G. But, new B1G markets in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia (and Oklahoma and Texas) would be enough to at least add enough value to deliver a slight payout increase. They would also expand the B1G network footprint tremendously and could add nice value for the network - outside of the top-tier media deal.

GOR's are not unbreakable but they do exist to act as a deterrence to the type of CR you are talking about.

Then, the ACC has an exit fee that must also be dealt with. Litigation involving both may be long and expensive.

How long would these issues be tied up in court ?

(If I am the ACC, I try to make it as long as possible).

The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

What if NBC, along with their other channels such as NBCSN, CNBC and I believe USA Network were to go after the Big 10 package?

(11-24-2015 01:01 PM)SMUfan Wrote:  What if NBC, along with their other channels such as NBCSN, CNBC and I believe USA Network were to go after the Big 10 package?

NBC and CBS are too cheap.

I think if anyone else was going to get involved, it'd be Turner, not NBC or CBS.

Think like they said, it winds up ESPN/Fox split. With CBS in for basketball.

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

That sounds right. They'll get from ESPN & Fox a little more than the SEC gets from ESPN & CBS, minus the value of the SECN.

Fox could use Big Ten hoops for FS1, and would probably like a 12 noon ET football game for FS1. They don't need Big Ten football for Fox broadcast but would fit some in to give the conference the OTA games they want. ESPN would also want those noon ET football games and some Big Ten hoops, but because of their other contracts they don't "need" either one as much as FS1 does. ESPN would want to keep some Big Ten football games for ABC, I think.

Other than the Olympics and NFL, NBC's tendency is to avoid bidding wars for higher-priced properties, so it would be a surprise if they were a major player in competing for Big Ten TV rights.

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

I think that possibility, is why the Big Ten will put their wares up as one package, to force them to compete against each other, and not allow a cooperative that will suppress the bids.

How does that work when there is a split package? Do the networks get together on the side and decide its better to team up rather than bid against each other?

Or does the conference propose it as a split package?

(11-24-2015 02:55 PM)goofus Wrote:  How does that work when there is a split package? Do the networks get together on the side and decide its better to team up rather than bid against each other?

Or does the conference propose it as a split package?

Well, when they did it for the PAC 12, ESPN and Fox teamed to put together a bid to outbid Comcast on the loan PAC 12 package, and they then split it up among themselves. The PAC okay'd such a deal, because it got them more money.

Now I don't know if there is anything they can do to prevent the two from teaming up, but I would guess they would have to put some contract in the bid that they don't want sublicensing and/or they want all of their games with one entity.

But unless a third bidder enters the scene, I don't think Comcast is considered a serious bidder this time, allowing Fox and ESPN to split the packages is bad for the Big Ten in terms of getting that big raise.

(11-24-2015 03:17 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 02:55 PM)goofus Wrote:  How does that work when there is a split package? Do the networks get together on the side and decide its better to team up rather than bid against each other?

Or does the conference propose it as a split package?

Well, when they did it for the PAC 12, ESPN and Fox teamed to put together a bid to outbid Comcast on the loan PAC 12 package, and they then split it up among themselves. The PAC okay'd such a deal, because it got them more money.

The Pac-12 didn't just "okay" the ESPN/Fox joint bid, they had their consultant reach out to ESPN and Fox to persuade them to do it, because ESPN told the conference they didn't want to air all of the games in the package being offered (about 4 FB games/week and 6 MBB games/week).

You are right. I just meant they were okay with both joining together on the bid, as opposed to Fox bidding for it, then later splitting the content with ESPN. As opposed to say the NFL, who would not allow Fox, for example, to win a contract, then split the rights with another network, or even show them on other networks they own.

(11-24-2015 03:57 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  You are right. I just meant they were okay with both joining together on the bid, as opposed to Fox bidding for it, then later splitting the content with ESPN. As opposed to say the NFL, who would not allow Fox, for example, to win a contract, then split the rights with another network, or even show them on other networks they own.

That's right. The NFL has more leverage than any college conference. The P5 conferences do have enough leverage to prevent sublicensing, though. The conference is better off contracting directly with each broadcaster because then it can limit which channels get their games (e.g., the Pac limits Fox to channels that are in at least 80 million homes, which allows them to put games on FS1 but not FS2).

Seeing how the Big Ten operates, I believe that their end game is a split between ESPN and Fox (similar to the Pac-12 deal) for football and the bulk of basketball while still keeping a weekly OTA game on CBS for basketball (where the CBS money isn't as critical as the widespread national exposure and top time slots). I recall an article back in March about how ESPN, BTN (majority-owned by Fox) and CBS were all broadcasting games at the Big Ten Tournament and that this was part of Jim Delany's long-term strategy. The Big Ten and Delany *want* that type of coverage at a high level with multiple outlets just like the NFL. I understand what adcorbett is arguing, but my strong belief is that the Big Ten isn't thinking that way. They'd very much welcome either a joint ESPN/Fox bid or a split of the rights between those two, as that would likely maximize both the revenue and exposure (the latter of which is why I don't believe for one second that the Big Ten would completely leave ESPN at all).

You need one more bidder than package. If it is only ESPN and Fox, they have to do something to make them bid against each other to drive that price up. Now, if Comcast comes up with a bid money bid, or CBS/Turner, then I can see the scenario above playing out. Otherwise, they have to create a reason for Fox and ESPN to pay more, read MUCH MORE, when they otherwise would not have to.

The Big Ten tends to like to be the leaders in their media strategy. And we all know that exposure is just as important to them as the final dollar amount.

So it wouldn't surprise me at all if digital streaming was a big part of the final contract. Because of that, I think ESPN is starting out with a big advantage.

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

UCONN to the Big Ten.