https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...aphic.html

Shows:
Trump 32
Carson 22
Rubio 11
Cruz 8
Bush 6
Fiorina 4
Huckabee, Kasich, Paul 3
Christie 2
Rest 1 or less

Most honest and trustworthy
Carson 34
Trump 23 (boy he sure can sell bridges)
Rubio 12
Bush 11
Cruz 10

Best able to win in November
Trump 38 (despite every poll showing him weakest)
Carson 22
Rubio 17
Bush 10
Cruz 6

Best personality and temperament to serve as president (humorous contrast in what people view as important-hard to think of 2 bigger contrasts than Trump and Carson)
Carson 26
Trump 20
Rubio 20
Bush 18
Cruz 11

Viewed as most important was bringing needed change to DC
Trump 47
Carson 22
Rubio 11
Cruz 9
Bush 7

Best experience to be president was viewed as most important by 11%, behind bringing needed change and most honest:
Bush 33
Trump 21
Rubio 16
Cruz 11
Carson 8

Some things positive and some things negative for all of the candidates. Cruz being near the bottom of nearly all the attributes, however, has to be a concern for his ability to move to the top if Trump and Carson falter.

Not a big Trump guy, but why only the commentary on him?

Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.

Terrible poll for Rubio and Cruz. On the other hand, best poll for Bush in a month.

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I believe its a great poll for Rubio an Cruz, and a horrible one for Bush. This is "registered" voters, not likely voters.

The only polls that are going to matter for the next few months are the "likely voter" polls out of Iowa, New Hampshire, SC, and the SEC primary states. If you aint registering in any of those polls, you are dead, no matter what the national polls say.

(11-22-2015 10:03 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I believe its a great poll for Rubio an Cruz, and a horrible one for Bush. This is "registered" voters, not likely voters.

The only polls that are going to matter for the next few months are the "likely voter" polls out of Iowa, New Hampshire, SC, and the SEC primary states. If you aint registering in any of those polls, you are dead, no matter what the national polls say.

I figured it was registered voters, but didn't read the internals. 51% of registered voters showed up to the polls in 2012 for the general election. Not sure what percentage shows up to the primaries, but it is safe to say that well over half the sample won't be voting in the primaries. Probably more like 25%.

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(11-22-2015 10:34 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 10:03 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I believe its a great poll for Rubio an Cruz, and a horrible one for Bush. This is "registered" voters, not likely voters.

The only polls that are going to matter for the next few months are the "likely voter" polls out of Iowa, New Hampshire, SC, and the SEC primary states. If you aint registering in any of those polls, you are dead, no matter what the national polls say.

I figured it was registered voters, but didn't read the internals. 51% of registered voters showed up to the polls in 2012 for the general election. Not sure what percentage shows up to the primaries, but it is safe to say that well over half the sample won't be voting in the primaries. Probably more like 25%.

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Thats what I believe as well, although the republican primaries may be very well represented this year if the debates are any indicator.

It does appear that Cruz is siphoning the conservative votes. The movement from Carson seems to be going to Cruz.

Trump is the best.

(11-22-2015 02:50 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Not a big Trump guy, but why only the commentary on him?

Because I thought the results were bizarre. That they thought he would bring big change to DC didn't deserve comment, because that was obvious. Honesty hardly strikes me as one of his characteristics. And all the polls show Carson as the most likely to beat the Democrats and Trump as the weakest.

(11-22-2015 10:34 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 10:03 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I believe its a great poll for Rubio an Cruz, and a horrible one for Bush. This is "registered" voters, not likely voters.

The only polls that are going to matter for the next few months are the "likely voter" polls out of Iowa, New Hampshire, SC, and the SEC primary states. If you aint registering in any of those polls, you are dead, no matter what the national polls say.

I figured it was registered voters, but didn't read the internals. 51% of registered voters showed up to the polls in 2012 for the general election. Not sure what percentage shows up to the primaries, but it is safe to say that well over half the sample won't be voting in the primaries. Probably more like 25%.

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This poll didn't show how many "strongly" support their candidate. That's an important number for the primaries.

(11-22-2015 04:31 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.

I don't see the evangelicals going to Cruz at all. Huckabee and Santorum were their guys before. Rubio might get them. But I doubt they desert Carson before Iowa. Others may, but not the evangelicals.

(11-22-2015 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:31 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.

I don't see the evangelicals going to Cruz at all. Huckabee and Santorum were their guys before. Rubio might get them. But I doubt they desert Carson before Iowa. Others may, but not the evangelicals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-ele...ns-n466651

Check out the four poll variances on this page. (Its an online poll, so grain of salt.))

They track 3 different sample periods over the last month, polling leaning republican voters with 4 different criteria:

White Evangelicals
Very Conservative
Men
Women

There is one person who has made significant gains in all four of these criteria, and its Ted Cruz. Cruz has seen his numbers triple on support for men and women, and more than triple for white evangelicals and very conservative voters. He polled at 40% for very conservatives, the highest polling number out of any of this particular data.

Trump is holding steady with evangelicals and very conservative voters. His number has dropped slightly among men, but risen slightly with women. Overall he is relatively unchanged from a month ago.

Carson has ping ponged. He went up slightly, then down greatly in all 4 criteria. Interesting that he siphoned some conservative votes away from Trump, then lost all of that and then some back to Trump and Cruz.

Rubio is mixed; up slightly with evangelicals, but his numbers cut in half for very conservative voters. He has made slight gains in both men and women.

Bush is flat with women, down slightly with men, flat with evangelicals, and down with very conservatives. His poll numbers started out abysmally low to the point where he now has no pulse with very conservative voters.

Fiorina is down. She started off slightly ahead of Bush, and managed to finish below him in 3 out of 4 criteria. Thats a bad accomplishment given that Bush had set the bar really low in the first place.

Although Trump is relatively flat, he still leads among both men and women. He is second among evangelicals and very conservatives.

Cruz is first among very conservatives, second in men and evangelicals (although he's practically tied with Trump there) and 3rd among women.

Carson is 1st among evangelicals, although he is in a near 3 way tie with Trump and Cruz, and his numbers in this group have taken a severe hit. He is second among women, and he comes in 3rd in men and very conservative voters. If he continues to drop, it will be interesting to see where his support flocks to. He still has 15% of the very conservative vote, and 20% of women. So far, Cruz has been the magnet for these voters leaving Carson.

Rubio is in 4th place in all four criteria. His difficulties seem to be the evangelicals and very conservative voters, not exactly the groups you want to have issues with during a republican primary. And he has not picked up the votes that left Carson. These voters flocked back to Trump, and heavily to Cruz.

(11-22-2015 04:50 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:31 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.

I don't see the evangelicals going to Cruz at all. Huckabee and Santorum were their guys before. Rubio might get them. But I doubt they desert Carson before Iowa. Others may, but not the evangelicals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-ele...ns-n466651

Check out the four poll variances on this page. (Its an online poll, so grain of salt.))

They track 3 different sample periods over the last month, polling leaning republican voters with 4 different criteria:

White Evangelicals
Very Conservative
Men
Women

There is one person who has made significant gains in all four of these criteria, and its Ted Cruz. Cruz has seen his numbers triple on support for men and women, and more than triple for white evangelicals and very conservative voters. He polled at 40% for very conservatives, the highest polling number out of any of this particular data.

Trump is holding steady with evangelicals and very conservative voters. His number has dropped slightly among men, but risen slightly with women. Overall he is relatively unchanged from a month ago.

Carson has ping ponged. He went up slightly, then down greatly in all 4 criteria. Interesting that he siphoned some conservative votes away from Trump, then lost all of that and then some back to Trump and Cruz.

Rubio is mixed; up slightly with evangelicals, but his numbers cut in half for very conservative voters. He has made slight gains in both men and women.

Bush is flat with women, down slightly with men, flat with evangelicals, and down with very conservatives. His poll numbers started out abysmally low to the point where he now has no pulse with very conservative voters.

Fiorina is down. She started off slightly ahead of Bush, and managed to finish below him in 3 out of 4 criteria. Thats a bad accomplishment given that Bush had set the bar really low in the first place.

Although Trump is relatively flat, he still leads among both men and women. He is second among evangelicals and very conservatives.

Cruz is first among very conservatives, second in men and evangelicals (although he's practically tied with Trump there) and 3rd among women.

Carson is 1st among evangelicals, although he is in a near 3 way tie with Trump and Cruz, and his numbers in this group have taken a severe hit. He is second among women, and he comes in 3rd in men and very conservative voters. If he continues to drop, it will be interesting to see where his support flocks to. He still has 15% of the very conservative vote, and 20% of women. So far, Cruz has been the magnet for these voters leaving Carson.

Rubio is in 4th place in all four criteria. His difficulties seem to be the evangelicals and very conservative voters, not exactly the groups you want to have issues with during a republican primary. And he has not picked up the votes that left Carson. These voters flocked back to Trump, and heavily to Cruz.

Interesting. I'm surprised Cruz is doing so well among evangelicals.

(11-22-2015 06:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:50 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:31 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.

I don't see the evangelicals going to Cruz at all. Huckabee and Santorum were their guys before. Rubio might get them. But I doubt they desert Carson before Iowa. Others may, but not the evangelicals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-ele...ns-n466651

Check out the four poll variances on this page. (Its an online poll, so grain of salt.))

They track 3 different sample periods over the last month, polling leaning republican voters with 4 different criteria:

White Evangelicals
Very Conservative
Men
Women

There is one person who has made significant gains in all four of these criteria, and its Ted Cruz. Cruz has seen his numbers triple on support for men and women, and more than triple for white evangelicals and very conservative voters. He polled at 40% for very conservatives, the highest polling number out of any of this particular data.

Trump is holding steady with evangelicals and very conservative voters. His number has dropped slightly among men, but risen slightly with women. Overall he is relatively unchanged from a month ago.

Carson has ping ponged. He went up slightly, then down greatly in all 4 criteria. Interesting that he siphoned some conservative votes away from Trump, then lost all of that and then some back to Trump and Cruz.

Rubio is mixed; up slightly with evangelicals, but his numbers cut in half for very conservative voters. He has made slight gains in both men and women.

Bush is flat with women, down slightly with men, flat with evangelicals, and down with very conservatives. His poll numbers started out abysmally low to the point where he now has no pulse with very conservative voters.

Fiorina is down. She started off slightly ahead of Bush, and managed to finish below him in 3 out of 4 criteria. Thats a bad accomplishment given that Bush had set the bar really low in the first place.

Although Trump is relatively flat, he still leads among both men and women. He is second among evangelicals and very conservatives.

Cruz is first among very conservatives, second in men and evangelicals (although he's practically tied with Trump there) and 3rd among women.

Carson is 1st among evangelicals, although he is in a near 3 way tie with Trump and Cruz, and his numbers in this group have taken a severe hit. He is second among women, and he comes in 3rd in men and very conservative voters. If he continues to drop, it will be interesting to see where his support flocks to. He still has 15% of the very conservative vote, and 20% of women. So far, Cruz has been the magnet for these voters leaving Carson.

Rubio is in 4th place in all four criteria. His difficulties seem to be the evangelicals and very conservative voters, not exactly the groups you want to have issues with during a republican primary. And he has not picked up the votes that left Carson. These voters flocked back to Trump, and heavily to Cruz.

Interesting. I'm surprised Cruz is doing so well among evangelicals.

You shouldn't be, the only thing he says more than "TedCruz.org" is "religious liberty".

(11-22-2015 06:54 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 06:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:50 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:31 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.

I don't see the evangelicals going to Cruz at all. Huckabee and Santorum were their guys before. Rubio might get them. But I doubt they desert Carson before Iowa. Others may, but not the evangelicals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-ele...ns-n466651

Check out the four poll variances on this page. (Its an online poll, so grain of salt.))

They track 3 different sample periods over the last month, polling leaning republican voters with 4 different criteria:

White Evangelicals
Very Conservative
Men
Women

There is one person who has made significant gains in all four of these criteria, and its Ted Cruz. Cruz has seen his numbers triple on support for men and women, and more than triple for white evangelicals and very conservative voters. He polled at 40% for very conservatives, the highest polling number out of any of this particular data.

Trump is holding steady with evangelicals and very conservative voters. His number has dropped slightly among men, but risen slightly with women. Overall he is relatively unchanged from a month ago.

Carson has ping ponged. He went up slightly, then down greatly in all 4 criteria. Interesting that he siphoned some conservative votes away from Trump, then lost all of that and then some back to Trump and Cruz.

Rubio is mixed; up slightly with evangelicals, but his numbers cut in half for very conservative voters. He has made slight gains in both men and women.

Bush is flat with women, down slightly with men, flat with evangelicals, and down with very conservatives. His poll numbers started out abysmally low to the point where he now has no pulse with very conservative voters.

Fiorina is down. She started off slightly ahead of Bush, and managed to finish below him in 3 out of 4 criteria. Thats a bad accomplishment given that Bush had set the bar really low in the first place.

Although Trump is relatively flat, he still leads among both men and women. He is second among evangelicals and very conservatives.

Cruz is first among very conservatives, second in men and evangelicals (although he's practically tied with Trump there) and 3rd among women.

Carson is 1st among evangelicals, although he is in a near 3 way tie with Trump and Cruz, and his numbers in this group have taken a severe hit. He is second among women, and he comes in 3rd in men and very conservative voters. If he continues to drop, it will be interesting to see where his support flocks to. He still has 15% of the very conservative vote, and 20% of women. So far, Cruz has been the magnet for these voters leaving Carson.

Rubio is in 4th place in all four criteria. His difficulties seem to be the evangelicals and very conservative voters, not exactly the groups you want to have issues with during a republican primary. And he has not picked up the votes that left Carson. These voters flocked back to Trump, and heavily to Cruz.

Interesting. I'm surprised Cruz is doing so well among evangelicals.

You shouldn't be, the only thing he says more than "TedCruz.org" is "religious liberty".

He just comes across as a bit of a jerk and focuses a lot on the economy/big government, in contrast to Carson (and Huckabee and Santorum before him), who come across as nice guys who hardly care about anything but religious issues and morals.

(11-22-2015 04:31 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Cruz is surging right now, and I predict will soon overtake Carson once the evangelicals realize Carson isn't the guy.