American's are known for their work ethic, individualism and ingenuity. Its not the most colorful culture in the world and doesn't have ancient tradition under the stars and stripes.

Are no ancient dresses or dances that flew under the same flag 300 years ago. At best it had cultural hand me downs from Great Britain a country known as stiff an regimented. America has never been thought of as funky.

American for a conference name that evokes conservative traditional values is having for itself a very funky season. A season that is a big "wtf" against the establishment of college football.

-Tulsa and East Carolina were added to the AAC for football. Memphis and Temple were added for basketball. The top 25 football rankings have Memphis and Temple in the Top 25 with Tulsa & ECU not in the conference race (wtf).

-Central Florida won the AAC in its first season and beat Baylor that year in a Fiesta Bowl. A nice achievement for UCF but not a major surprise with the trajectory the program was moving in. Recruiting classes following the Fiesta Bowl win near the Top of the G5. Two years later UCF is 0-11 going into the end of the season (wtf). That's a record reserved for the crappiest of G5 programs (NMSU, EMU, UMASS). I can see 4-8 or 3-9 in a bad season for UCF but 0-12?

-Before the start of the season a little question had to be answered; what do you do if god forbid Navy is the champ of the AAC but loses to Army afterward in the Army-Navy game. What a stupid question right? Navy's never won a conference championship and with its recruiting limitations nobody picked the Midshipman to win the AAC. Does this question of what to do with the Army-Navy game even need an answer since its so improbable that Navy will be in the hunt? In their very first year of joining a conference they find themselves the front runner of all the G5 schools for that autobid (wtf).

It's been a funky american this year. If South Florida rises up to win the AAC with 4 losses shutting the AAC out of a NY6 bid it will be as funky finish. Does South Florida with 4 losses deserve the NY6 bid over a champ with 2 losses because of the strong conference performance this year? The committee every week is a big wtf with their Top 25 rankings so who knows.

It has been a crazy year...but a great year for the conference. I hope we stick together and make this experiment work!

(11-22-2015 09:51 AM)TampaKnight Wrote:  It has been a crazy year...but a great year for the conference. I hope we stick together and make this experiment work!

I think moving into the BE/AAC helped recruiting at a number of schools starting in the 2011, 2012, 2013 timeframe. Its no coincidence that both Temple and Memphis are surging.

That level of depth never happened in the MWC. Never did UNLV and New Mexico rise up to the Top 25 level even for a brief amount of time.

Jeff Sagarin G5 Top 10 for 11/15

27 Navy
33 Toledo
36 Houston
45 Temple
47 Memphis
48 Western Kentucky
49 Bowling Green
50 Boise State
53 San Diego State
54 South Florida

-Toledo takes a big jump upwards this week following its road win at Bowling Green. Only 6 spots behind Navy this week.

-Western Kentucky has both Marshall and a potential CUSA championship game to play. If they win both it will be a nice boost to their SOS.

-South Florida enters the Top 10 of the G5 Sagarin ratings for the first time this season. If they do win the AAC at 9-4 they might have one of the highest Sagarins following that win. That's a good arguement for selecting USF with 4 losses to the access bowl.

Sagarin Top 5 schedules of autobid contenders:

Navy (83)
Temple (86)
Toledo (89)
Houston (107)
Western Kentucky (114)

-There aren't very many autobid contenders left to discuss this week. The front runners of the AAC divisions (Navy, Temple) also have the highest SOS.

-Toledo who needs help to win its division is emerging as the school that could best stake a claim on the autobid over the American champion.

Percentages to earn G5 autobid for legit contenders:

Navy/Houston game winner (65%). The winner of Houston or Navy game is projecting to have wins over 2 ranked teams. The winner would host the championship game and be an odds on favorite.

Temple (25%). They won't be favored for the AAC Championship game and can't afford another loss. They picked up their first ranked win this week against Memphis and seem to be back on track after South Florida.

Toledo (7%). They'll need help from Ohio this week to hand NIU its second MAC loss to stay in the autobid picture but they did what they needed to do this week beating Bowling Green. Definitely would be in over USF if they win the AAC but a 2 loss Temple team I doubt it because they'll have 2 Top 25 wins (Memphis & AAC Champion).

Western Kentucky (3%). The chances here a very slight because it would take South Florida winning the AAC and the committee to decide they aren't worthy. They have to play Marshall but its at home which will help. The CUSA Championship game would also be played at home.

The Temple/South Florida battle for the AAC East is meaningful for the other G5 autobid conferences.

If Temple wins against UConn, they win the AAC East with 2 losses and automatically eliminate any G5 schools from the conversation that have 2 or greater losses. Which is all the other G5 schools but Toledo. Toledo might have a chance 3 spots behind Temple in the coaches poll should they get a few breaks to win the MAC.

If Temple loses to UConn, that makes South Florida the AAC East champ with 4 losses. Then the WKU/Marshall CUSA winner has a shot with 2 losses over a 4 loss AAC champ. This week WKU has more votes in the Top 25 than USF so that logic that if the the two schools both win out WKU will be selected may apply.

Contenders Check in for 11/22 (AP for Rankings):

American Athletic
Navy 9-1 (L 41-24 #15 Notre Dame, W 45-20 #15 Memphis, 11/27 #21 Houston)
Houston 10-1 (W 34-31 Louisville, W 34-0 Vanderbilt, W 35-34 #25 Memphis, 11/27 #16 Navy)
Temple 9-2 (W 27-10 Penn State, L 24-20 #9 Notre Dame)

Mid American
Toledo 9-1 (W 16-12 #18 Arkansas, W 30-23 Iowa State)

Conference USA
Western Kentucky 9-2 (W 14-12 Vanderbilt, L #5 48-20 Louisiana State)
Marshall 9-2 (W 41-31 Purdue)

Sun Belt
Appalachian State 8-2 (L 42-10 #12 Clemson)

The Top 5 contenders at this point for the autobid.

1) Navy 9-1 (L 41-24 #15 Notre Dame, W 45-20 #15 Memphis, 11/27 #21 Houston)
2) Houston 10-1 (W 34-31 Louisville, W 34-0 Vanderbilt, W 35-34 #25 Memphis, 11/27 #16 Navy)
3) Temple 9-2 (W 27-10 Penn State, L 24-20 #9 Notre Dame)
4) Toledo 9-1 (W 16-12 #18 Arkansas, W 30-23 Iowa State)
5) Western Kentucky 9-2 (W 14-12 Vanderbilt, L #5 48-20 Louisiana State)

-Navy is playing the best ball of all the AAC schools down the stretch. With Houston (x1), Temple (x2) and Memphis (x3) all going down with losses they are now the cream of the crop.

-Temple played well this week and is offcially in do or die playoff mode. Win the next 3 and they are NY6 bowl champions. Lose next week and they are second place finishers in the AAC East. With so much on the line you've got to think there has got to be fire in the Owl's belly.

-The South Florida winning the AAC scenario is still out there. Could the committee give the autobid to a school with 4 losses? The quality arguement of the AAC goes down when things like Houston losing to UConn happen.

Chances Alive: Houston, Navy
Chances w/ Pulse: Temple
Chances on Life Support: Toledo, Western Kentucky, Marshall, App State
Dead: Anyone else.

There are some talk that Air Force might sneak in if that USF wins it all including the AAC championship, Western Kentucky losing to Marshall and Marshall loses to Southern Miss./La. Tech West Champ, Toledo not getting into the MAC Championship, and the only 2 other schools that are getting votes are Air Force at 29, Western Kentucky at 32 and Arkansas State at 36. Nobody else is near those three. If Air Force wins the MWC championship beating San Diego State and everybody else gets locked out? MWC might luck out since the highest ranked G5 champion in this scenario would be Air Force.

If Temple beats UCONN it likely locks up the access bid for the AAC. My guess is the win over Memphis gets them back in the committee top 25. Will be interesting to see if they drop Houston or not. Doesn't really matter as if they beat Navy they'd be right back in, but the committee has shown a decent level of respect for the AAC, leaving Memphis in the poll after 2 straight losses and ranking 1 loss Navy above 1 loss UNC and 1 loss TCU last week.

(11-22-2015 07:44 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  There are some talk that Air Force might sneak in if that USF wins it all including the AAC championship, Western Kentucky losing to Marshall and Marshall loses to Southern Miss./La. Tech West Champ, Toledo not getting into the MAC Championship, and the only 2 other schools that are getting votes are Air Force at 29, Western Kentucky at 32 and Arkansas State at 36. Nobody else is near those three. If Air Force wins the MWC championship beating San Diego State and everybody else gets locked out? MWC might luck out since the highest ranked G5 champion in this scenario would be Air Force.

Could the G5 crap out and force the CFP to take a 3 or greater loss champion?

I never thought it could happen that the CFP doesn't have somebody under 2 losses as its representative.