The playoff committee will pick the 12 NY bowl slots.

1 from Pac 12-Stanford will play the USC/UCLA winner for that slot. Almost no chance to make the playoff

1 from G5-If Temple wins the East, AAC champ, Houston-Navy winner vs. Temple is a lock. Should USF win the east and the ccg, then its open. Probably Air Force-SDSU winner in MWC ccg, but Toledo has a chance if they get some help and win their division and then the MAC ccg. No chance to make playoff.

1 or 2 from ACC-Clemson seems a lock. UNC probably needs to win ACC to get in one of the 12 slots and is very much a longshot to make the final 4. Clemson simply has to win out to make playoff

1 from independents. ND is virtually a lock for NYD. Win out and will be top 5, unclear if top 4 and in playoff.

That leaves 7 or 8 slots for SEC, Big 10 and Big 12.

2 or 3 SEC-Alabama is a lock for NYD and probably in the playoffs if the win out. Florida makes NYD with 1 win between FSU and ccg. Ole Miss has a shot. One of those 2 gets the Sugar Bowl if Alabama wins SEC and goes to playoff.

2 to 4 B1G-Ohio St./Michigan winner is a lock. Iowa at 12-1 would be a lock, but not if they lose out. Northwestern has an outside shot if other Big 10 teams falter. MSU is pretty much a lock. Unclear how playoff hopes are other than Iowa-win out and they are in.

2 or 3 Big 12-Also unclear about playoff hopes with winning out. But OU/OSU winner is a lock for NYD. Baylor/TCU winner is a lock. A 3rd team might get in depending on how everything else falls out.

Some of those teams look bad to be playing on those days. PAC 12 cannibalized each other. SEC would have teams with 2 or more loses.

If playoffs are:
Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan St

ACC- only hope is FSU beating Florida next week
B12- Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Baylor all 3 could make it
B10- Ohio St/Michigan winner in for sure in Rose Bowl. Iowa would be close for access bowl
P12- likely only Rose spot
SEC- Florida gets in for Sugar Bowl in Alabama's spot.

So I see-
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Iowa and G5 team for access bowls.

(11-22-2015 02:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  B10- Ohio St/Michigan winner in for sure in Rose Bowl. Iowa would be close for access bowl

A lot would ride on how Iowa looks in the CCG ... the dreaded eye test. Look bad losing, they don't have the SOS before the CCG to ride that out.

(11-22-2015 04:52 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 02:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  B10- Ohio St/Michigan winner in for sure in Rose Bowl. Iowa would be close for access bowl

A lot would ride on how Iowa looks in the CCG ... the dreaded eye test. Look bad losing, they don't have the SOS before the CCG to ride that out.

A 12-1 Iowa with a loss to Michigan State would likely be rated higher than Ohio State. Ohio State will have lost at home to Michigan State who backup QBs and their best (only) wins over P5 teams with winning records would be Michigan and Penn State. Iowa is not much better but they likely will three wins vs. teams that had 9 or 10 wins (Northwestern, Wisconsin and Pitt), including two road wins. The common loss would be to MSU, absent a blowout in the CCG, Iowa's loss would be "better" due to circumstances (e.g. home field for OSU, no Cook).

In any event, it is probably an academic argument as I expect both Iowa and Ohio State to lose next week.

FSU in the Peach Bowl vs. Navy/Houston/Temple

(11-22-2015 07:24 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 04:52 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-22-2015 02:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  B10- Ohio St/Michigan winner in for sure in Rose Bowl. Iowa would be close for access bowl

A lot would ride on how Iowa looks in the CCG ... the dreaded eye test. Look bad losing, they don't have the SOS before the CCG to ride that out.

A 12-1 Iowa with a loss to Michigan State would likely be rated higher than Ohio State. Ohio State will have lost at home to Michigan State who backup QBs and their best (only) wins over P5 teams with winning records would be Michigan and Penn State. Iowa is not much better but they likely will three wins vs. teams that had 9 or 10 wins (Northwestern, Wisconsin and Pitt), including two road wins. The common loss would be to MSU, absent a blowout in the CCG, Iowa's loss would be "better" due to circumstances (e.g. home field for OSU, no Cook).

In any event, it is probably an academic argument as I expect both Iowa and Ohio State to lose next week.

Michigan State in the playoff

Iowa in the Rose, Ohio State/Michigan winner in the Fiesta

Peach: FSU vs. Navy/Houston/Temple
Orange: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Notre Dame
Cotton: #2 Alabama vs. #3 Michigan State

Rose: Iowa vs. Stanford/Oregon
Fiesta: Ohio State/Michigan vs. ???
Sugar: Florida/Ole Miss vs. Baylor

Ole Miss with 3 losses is not going to a New Year's Six Bowl. There are too many teams in front of them with only 1 loss.

Orange (Semifinal): #1 Clemson vs. #4 Iowa
Cotton (Semifinal): #2 Alabama vs. #3 Notre Dame

Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large): Florida State vs. Navy
Rose: (Big Ten #1 vs. Pac Ten #1): Michigan State vs. Stanford
Sugar: (Big 12 #1 vs. SEC #1): Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Fiesta: (At-Large vs. At-Large): Baylor vs. Michigan State

FSU has to beat Florida. otherwise, they won't be close to the top 11.

last week they were #14. teams ahead of them that lost this week- they would only pass Utah(the others were Ohio St, Oklahoma st). But they get probably passed by UNC. If Florida beats FSU and Clemson beats UNC- the ACC will have Clemson and that's it.

Also Ole Miss could still easily go to the Sugar Bowl. If FSU beats Florida and Ole Miss beats Miss St- Ole Miss could easily be ahead of Florida.

(11-22-2015 10:49 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  Orange (Semifinal): #1 Clemson vs. #4 Iowa
Cotton (Semifinal): #2 Alabama vs. #3 Notre Dame

Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large): Florida State vs. Navy
Rose: (Big Ten #1 vs. Pac Ten #1): Michigan State vs. Stanford
Sugar: (Big 12 #1 vs. SEC #1): Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Fiesta: (At-Large vs. At-Large): Baylor vs. Michigan State

Michigan State is good, but even they can't play two Bowls.

Why would FSU be an At Large? OSU/UM winner will be ranked ahead of them, even should they beat Fla.

(11-22-2015 08:31 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Ole Miss with 3 losses is not going to a New Year's Six Bowl. There are too many teams in front of them with only 1 loss.

SEC gets the Sugar Bowl slot. Should Florida lose to FSU and Alabama, Ole Miss probably beats them out for that slot. Also, Ole Miss could still win the SEC. And they might still get in as #12. The committee likes their win over Alabama. It could be hard to find 8 teams between the Big 10/Big 12 and SEC.

Wouldn't that also mean Miss St has a shot? If they beat Ole Miss and Florida loses to Bama and FSU, wouldn't they be the second highest SEC team?

(11-22-2015 02:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If playoffs are:
Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan St

ACC- only hope is FSU beating Florida next week
B12- Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Baylor all 3 could make it
B10- Ohio St/Michigan winner in for sure in Rose Bowl. Iowa would be close for access bowl
P12- likely only Rose spot
SEC- Florida gets in for Sugar Bowl in Alabama's spot.

So I see-
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Iowa and G5 team for access bowls.

Agree! with the G5 being NAVY!!

(11-22-2015 01:15 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Wouldn't that also mean Miss St has a shot? If they beat Ole Miss and Florida loses to Bama and FSU, wouldn't they be the second highest SEC team?

I think its the Alabama win that give Ole Miss a shot. Florida probably beats out MSU in that scenario.

Mississippi State to Sugar is likely if they beat Ole Miss and Florida drops to 10-3. There's no way Florida would have the better resume, especially with the close calls over FAU and Vanderbilt (and Kentucky and Tennessee etc.).

Some interesting early betting lines:

Florida State -1 1/2 over Florida
Michigan -2 over Ohio State
Stanford -3 over Notre Dame
Oklahoma -4 1/2 over Oklahoma State

(11-22-2015 07:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  Some interesting early betting lines:

Florida State -1 1/2 over Florida
Michigan -2 over Ohio State
Stanford -3 over Notre Dame
Oklahoma -4 1/2 over Oklahoma State

Assuming these favorites play out as is, I would rank em':

1. Clemson 13-0
2. Bama 12-1
3. Iowa/MSU 13-0/12-1
4. OU 11-1
5. Baylor 11-1
6. UM/OSU 10-2/11-1
7. Stanford 11-2
8. MSU/Iowa 11-2/12-1
9. FSU 10-2
10. Oregon 9-3

Bowl Matchups:

Clemson vs OU (Orange)
Bama vs Iowa/MSU (Cotton)

Rose: UM/OSU versus Stanford
Peach: AAC versus FSU
Fiesta: Oregon versus Iowa/MSU
Sugar: Baylor versus Ole Miss/Miss St

Didn't realize there are actually 6 of these things now, so I guess the Fla/FSU winner is in by default...