(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote: I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF
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I think that you are probably right that perhaps a 3 loss NIU or especially a 3 loss BG might compete favorably with a 4 loss USF for an Access Bowl invitation. In this regards BG has a big edge over NIU in that BG and USF played a common opponent Maryland. USF lost their game with Maryland while BG beat Maryland by 21 points and this makes for a powerful point of direct comparison in BG's favor that NIU does not have.
However, what you are overlooking is that if USF does win the AAC championship it will very likely let the Mountain West back into the race and the Mt. West Champ would likely slip in thru the back door if it is a 3 loss Air Force which now looks like a distinct possibility.
IMO the MAC's best chance for the Access Bowl took a major blow with the Toledo loss to NIU in the last 2-3 minutes of the game.
The MAC's second best chance for the Access Bowl took a major blow with the BG loss to Toledo.
IMO the best chance for the MAC getting into the Access Bowl at this point is for Ohio to beat NIU (which is highly unlikely as it would require a total meltdown on the part of NIU) coupled with Toledo going 11-1 as MAC Champion (which would require beating BG again, by no means a gimme) and USF winning the AAC (also a long shot, but not as long as it once appeared).
If all of those things happened the MAC would definitely get the Access Bowl invitation, but otherwise I doubt it. Of course the odds are all those pieces falling exactly into place must be up there with winning the lottery, which in a sense is what the Access Bowl payout is.