If USF continues their hot streak they could win the AAC. They already have 4 losses.

Go UCONN

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(11-20-2015 10:42 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  Go UCONN

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If Temple loses to Memphis tomorrow all USF has to do is beat 0-11 UCF to win the AAC East.

I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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Exactly. The ACKs! worst nightmare is USF winning out because they are probably the only potential champ that would have no chance against a 1 or 3 loss MAC champ.

(11-20-2015 11:22 PM)CMUprof Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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Exactly. The ACKs! worst nightmare is USF winning out because they are probably the only potential champ that would have no chance against a 1 or 3 loss MAC champ.

I wouldnt say no chance... but i think it favors 10-3 NIU or BGSU would trump 9-4 USF. USF would have some impressive wins but that W/L man...

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(11-20-2015 11:27 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:22 PM)CMUprof Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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Exactly. The ACKs! worst nightmare is USF winning out because they are probably the only potential champ that would have no chance against a 1 or 3 loss MAC champ.

I wouldnt say no chance... but i think it favors 10-3 NIU or BGSU would trump 9-4 USF. USF would have some impressive wins but that W/L man...

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Eh idk NIUs OOC wins are over a fcs team and a horrible UNLV team. That wont bode well in the committe's eyes.

(11-21-2015 12:25 AM)NIUSox10 Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:27 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:22 PM)CMUprof Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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Exactly. The ACKs! worst nightmare is USF winning out because they are probably the only potential champ that would have no chance against a 1 or 3 loss MAC champ.

I wouldnt say no chance... but i think it favors 10-3 NIU or BGSU would trump 9-4 USF. USF would have some impressive wins but that W/L man...

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Eh idk NIUs OOC wins are over a fcs team and a horrible UNLV team. That wont bode well in the committe's eyes.

They also didnt lose to Maryland

And played tOSU close

And, you know, lost less

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Either NIU if BG has a shot if USF wins the AAC. NIU will have beaten good teams BG and Toledo. Would be much easier if NIU beat BC earlier this year

(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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I think that you are probably right that perhaps a 3 loss NIU or especially a 3 loss BG might compete favorably with a 4 loss USF for an Access Bowl invitation. In this regards BG has a big edge over NIU in that BG and USF played a common opponent Maryland. USF lost their game with Maryland while BG beat Maryland by 21 points and this makes for a powerful point of direct comparison in BG's favor that NIU does not have.

However, what you are overlooking is that if USF does win the AAC championship it will very likely let the Mountain West back into the race and the Mt. West Champ would likely slip in thru the back door if it is a 3 loss Air Force which now looks like a distinct possibility.

IMO the MAC's best chance for the Access Bowl took a major blow with the Toledo loss to NIU in the last 2-3 minutes of the game.

The MAC's second best chance for the Access Bowl took a major blow with the BG loss to Toledo.

IMO the best chance for the MAC getting into the Access Bowl at this point is for Ohio to beat NIU (which is highly unlikely as it would require a total meltdown on the part of NIU) coupled with Toledo going 11-1 as MAC Champion (which would require beating BG again, by no means a gimme) and USF winning the AAC (also a long shot, but not as long as it once appeared).

If all of those things happened the MAC would definitely get the Access Bowl invitation, but otherwise I doubt it. Of course the odds are all those pieces falling exactly into place must be up there with winning the lottery, which in a sense is what the Access Bowl payout is.

(11-21-2015 09:12 AM)T-Town Wrote:  

(11-20-2015 11:14 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  I still think NIU or BGSU can get the nod over USF

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I think that you are probably right that perhaps a 3 loss NIU or especially a 3 loss BG might compete favorably with a 4 loss USF for an Access Bowl invitation. In this regards BG has a big edge over NIU in that BG and USF played a common opponent Maryland. USF lost their game with Maryland while BG beat Maryland by 21 points and this makes for a powerful point of direct comparison in BG's favor that NIU does not have.

However, what you are overlooking is that if USF does win the AAC championship it will very likely let the Mountain West back into the race and the Mt. West Champ would likely slip in thru the back door if it is a 3 loss Air Force which now looks like a distinct possibility.

IMO the MAC's best chance for the Access Bowl took a major blow with the Toledo loss to NIU in the last 2-3 minutes of the game.

The MAC's second best chance for the Access Bowl took a major blow with the BG loss to Toledo.

IMO the best chance for the MAC getting into the Access Bowl at this point is for Ohio to beat NIU (which is highly unlikely as it would require a total meltdown on the part of NIU) coupled with Toledo going 11-1 as MAC Champion (which would require beating BG again, by no means a gimme) and USF winning the AAC (also a long shot, but not as long as it once appeared).

If all of those things happened the MAC would definitely get the Access Bowl invitation, but otherwise I doubt it. Of course the odds are all those pieces falling exactly into place must be up there with winning the lottery, which in a sense is what the Access Bowl payout is.

Agreed, a 3 loss MW team might get the nod over a 3 loss MAC team. A 3 loss MAC team may also be vulnerable to a 2 loss CUSA team (Marshall or WKU).

(11-21-2015 09:12 AM)T-Town Wrote:  However, what you are overlooking is that if USF does win the AAC championship it will very likely let the Mountain West back into the race and the Mt. West Champ would likely slip in thru the back door if it is a 3 loss Air Force which now looks like a distinct possibility

I don't think Air Force will get it over a 3-loss NIU or BG team. Air Force's best OOC win is 2-8 Army or a 4-5 1-AA team. The only BCS team they played they weren't even competitive. Down by 35-7 at one point to Michigan State.

(11-21-2015 11:20 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-21-2015 09:12 AM)T-Town Wrote:  However, what you are overlooking is that if USF does win the AAC championship it will very likely let the Mountain West back into the race and the Mt. West Champ would likely slip in thru the back door if it is a 3 loss Air Force which now looks like a distinct possibility

I don't think Air Force will get it over a 3-loss NIU or BG team. Air Force's best OOC win is 2-8 Army or a 4-5 1-AA team. The only BCS team they played they weren't even competitive. Down by 35-7 at one point to Michigan State.

Actually Air Force's best win OOC win was over a 4-6 San Jose State which is certainly as good an NIU's best OOC win over a 3-7 UNLV team. In conference the Air Force win over (now) 7-4 Boise State is roughly comparable to NIU's win over Toledo and probably better that any BG in-conference win to date.

For Air Force to be a factor they will also have to defeat a 6-4 New Mexico and a 7-3 San Diego, so while it is not a done deal it is quite possible for Air Force to win the Mountain West and if so the perception of the Mountain West (and the AAC) as being a cut above the rest of the G5 should be enough to get them in, certainly over NIU and probably over BG as well.

Obviously, Toledo has the best OCC resume of any MAC team by far with wins over a then ranked SEC P5 Arkansas and a P5 Iowa State along with the complete route of likely Sun Belt Conference Champion Arkansas State . However of the two teams most likely to win the MACC, BG can make a much better case for an Access Bowl invitation than can NIU. BG went 2-1 against P5 teams this year whereas NIU went 0-2 and although the NIU loss against tOSU was an impressive performance it was negated the following week by losing to an atrocious Boston College (good D but atrocious nevertheless) a team that is dead last in the ACC with an 0-7 conference record and overall record of 3-7 whose 3 wins have come against NIU, Howard and Maine------this certainly does not help NIU make a case for an Access Bowl invitation.

I see absolutely no chance of NIU getting an invitation this year and while BG's chances are a bit better they are only marginally so.

(11-21-2015 01:15 PM)T-Town Wrote:  

(11-21-2015 11:20 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-21-2015 09:12 AM)T-Town Wrote:  However, what you are overlooking is that if USF does win the AAC championship it will very likely let the Mountain West back into the race and the Mt. West Champ would likely slip in thru the back door if it is a 3 loss Air Force which now looks like a distinct possibility

I don't think Air Force will get it over a 3-loss NIU or BG team. Air Force's best OOC win is 2-8 Army or a 4-5 1-AA team. The only BCS team they played they weren't even competitive. Down by 35-7 at one point to Michigan State.

Actually Air Force's best win OOC win was over a 4-6 San Jose State which is certainly as good an NIU's best OOC win over a 3-7 UNLV team. In conference the Air Force win over (now) 7-4 Boise State is roughly comparable to NIU's win over Toledo and probably better that any BG in-conference win to date.

For Air Force to be a factor they will also have to defeat a 6-4 New Mexico and a 7-3 San Diego, so while it is not a done deal it is quite possible for Air Force to win the Mountain West and if so the perception of the Mountain West (and the AAC) as being a cut above the rest of the G5 should be enough to get them in, certainly over NIU and probably over BG as well.

Obviously, Toledo has the best OCC resume of any MAC team by far with wins over a then ranked SEC P5 Arkansas and a P5 Iowa State along with the complete route of likely Sun Belt Conference Champion Arkansas State . However of the two teams most likely to win the MACC, BG can make a much better case for an Access Bowl invitation than can NIU. BG went 2-1 against P5 teams this year whereas NIU went 0-2 and although the NIU loss against tOSU was an impressive performance it was negated the following week by losing to an atrocious Boston College (good D but atrocious nevertheless) a team that is dead last in the ACC with an 0-7 conference record and overall record of 3-7 whose 3 wins have come against NIU, Howard and Maine------this certainly does not help NIU make a case for an Access Bowl invitation.

I see absolutely no chance of NIU getting an invitation this year and while BG's chances are a bit better they are only marginally so.

The MAC champ probably didn't have a chance but Memphis playing so pathetic against Temple seals the deal that the MAC is out. Memphis had to win today. Toledo had no chance either

(11-21-2015 10:45 AM)Siborg Wrote:  Agreed, a 3 loss MW team might get the nod over a 3 loss MAC team. A 3 loss MAC team may also be vulnerable to a 2 loss CUSA team (Marshall or WKU).

Good point----If USF wins the AAC it might well put C-USA as well as the MW back into the hunt.

(11-21-2015 01:21 PM)T-Town Wrote:  

(11-21-2015 10:45 AM)Siborg Wrote:  Agreed, a 3 loss MW team might get the nod over a 3 loss MAC team. A 3 loss MAC team may also be vulnerable to a 2 loss CUSA team (Marshall or WKU).

Good point----If USF wins the AAC it might well put C-USA as well as the MW back into the hunt.

Nope, Mountain West is done, they wont get the Access spot. WKU would have a very very small hope, but I think its a 99.9% chance the AAC will get the spot, even if its a 4 loss South Florida. Marshall with that God Awful schedule would have had to get through with just 1 loss. The AAC is the flavor of the month, and the committee would deviate from the AAC even if its a 4-loss south florida. Don't forget USF would have a major top 25 win by winning the AAC championship game that would certainly put them over the top. The MAC would stack up more favorably to the Mountain West, even if NIU was MAC champ

I kind of wish there was a rule in place that would give a 2-loss (or low ranked) G5 Access Bowl qualifying team the big payout but move them to a more competitive bowl game. A tier just below the Access Bowls.

With that said, NIU's best argument over USF or AF, if the Huskies become MAC Champs, would be coming in as the hot team (9 straight wins including Toledo who will be top 25 again).

(11-21-2015 02:45 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  I kind of wish there was a rule in place that would give a 2-loss (or low ranked) G5 Access Bowl qualifying team the big payout but move them to a more competitive bowl game. A tier just below the Access Bowls.

With that said, NIU's best argument over USF or AF, if the Huskies become MAC Champs, would be coming in as the hot team (9 straight wins including Toledo who will be top 25 again).

Looks as if it may be a moot point. Although a slight favorite in their game against Temple, it appears that Memphis is taking one for the conference so the currently hot South Florida Bulls will not be playing for the AAC championship and trying to upset the AAC's multi-million dollar apple cart this year. C'est la vie.

(11-21-2015 03:23 PM)T-Town Wrote:  

(11-21-2015 02:45 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  I kind of wish there was a rule in place that would give a 2-loss (or low ranked) G5 Access Bowl qualifying team the big payout but move them to a more competitive bowl game. A tier just below the Access Bowls.

With that said, NIU's best argument over USF or AF, if the Huskies become MAC Champs, would be coming in as the hot team (9 straight wins including Toledo who will be top 25 again).

it appears that Memphis is taking one for the conference so the currently hot South Florida Bulls will not be playing for the AAC championship and trying to upset the AAC's multi-million dollar apple cart this year. C'est la vie.

This is EXACTLY what happened, this is what is wrong with college athletics, just shameful disgraceful Memphis Tigers

(11-21-2015 03:23 PM)T-Town Wrote:  

(11-21-2015 02:45 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  I kind of wish there was a rule in place that would give a 2-loss (or low ranked) G5 Access Bowl qualifying team the big payout but move them to a more competitive bowl game. A tier just below the Access Bowls.

With that said, NIU's best argument over USF or AF, if the Huskies become MAC Champs, would be coming in as the hot team (9 straight wins including Toledo who will be top 25 again).

Looks as if it may be a moot point. Although a slight favorite in their game against Temple, it appears that Memphis is taking one for the conference so the currently hot South Florida Bulls will not be playing for the AAC championship and trying to upset the AAC's multi-million dollar apple cart this year. C'est la vie.

Temple is a good team