A few weeks ago, I predicted an easy win over UTEP and a toss-up and a close game with SOMISS. Boy was I wrong. honestly I don’t know how to predict anymore and I think Vegas is struggling with predictions as well. They currently have a 2-8 UTSA team beating our 4-6 Owls.

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/rice-owls...015-702699

So what’s happened since my last predictions. The answers I have found are many but the bottom line, we have gotten worst. Perhaps our weakness were covered up in a win against an awful FCS team Wagner or the turnovers by UNT that enabled us to pull out a win against another one win team. It could have been the rain at FAU and Army, not sure but we are not the team anyone expected. Here’s some observations based on numbers.

1. The fundamentals are not working. Prior to the Southern Miss game, Coach Bailiff said that the team needed to go back to the fundamentals. Southern Miss QB set records against the Rice defense. Mullens threw for 386 yards and five touchdowns versus Rice. Their offense set a school record with 682 yards of total offense (72 plays) averaging 9.5 yards per play.
2. We quickly point to execution, the fact is that our defense scheme has not been very effective. Take UTEP for example, we were beaten by a tight end that never got coverage or was checked at the line of scrimmage. We currently have one of the worst defenses ranked #119/128. We are so bad that Southern Miss offense set a school record with 682 yards of total offense (72 plays) averaging 9.5 yards per play. Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and Baylor are all currently ranked in the top 5 offenses. We contributed 682, 504, 793 yards to their success. After 10 games, I stand in giving the defense an F.
3. The offense in my opinion is worst. Our passing game has generated one 300 yard passing game with four games accumulating less than 150 yards passing. Running back by committee is not working either. The last three games we have gained 101 yards against La Tech, 90 vs. UTEP, 107 vs. Southern Miss. Last year against SOMISS, Davis had 29 carries for 145 and Dillard 11 for 55. They had 11 carries combined. Difficult to run when you’re down 42-0 at halftime. After 10 games, I will drop the D- to an F. However, our special teams get a C+.
4. Glass half full or half empty? HALF EMPTY - We did not compete this year with any team with a winning record which has not been many (4- Baylor, La Tech, WKY, SOMISS). We lost to those four teams with a combined score of 226-54. Two touchdowns in a game where the most we scored against any of these teams. The biggest surprise this year is that all the coaches have their jobs which makes me ask myself - why do coaches get extensions when they win and not get fired when they lose.
5. HALF FULL – we have two teams ranked lower than us with a combined record of 4-16. Based on previous year’s history, I predicted a win against UTEP given their record, their injuries and poor play against schools like Incarnate Word. Yet we lost, so this week I’m going to predict a toss-up however a win against Charlotte. The win against Charlotte will be used as the building block for next year however we need to be careful we don’t let another win cover our weaknesses – coaching which leads to execution.
Enjoy the weekend!!
“Execution is the responsibility that makes or breaks executives (leaders/coaches)”
“Strategy without tactics is the lowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” --- Sun Tzu

(11-20-2015 11:43 AM)UTOWL94 Wrote:  A few weeks ago, I predicted an easy win over UTEP and a toss-up and a close game with SOMISS. Boy was I wrong.

One close game (check) and one easy win(not).
I'd say you were HALF RIGHT.
:)