AAC:

Eligible: Cinci, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple, USF
Bubble but will make it: Tulsa (5-5, games left against Navy and Tulane)
Not Likely to Make it: UConn (5-5, games left against Houston and Temple); East Carolina (4-6, games left against UCF and Cinci)
Out: SMU, Tulane, UCF

Summary - 6 Eligible, 1 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 3 OUT

ACC:

Eligible: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, UNC, NCSU, Pitt
Not Likely to Make it: Va Tech (5-5, games left against UNC and UVA)
Out: BC, GT, Syr, VA, WF

Summary - 8 Eligible, 0 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT

Big 10

Eligible: Iowa, Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin

Likely to Make it: Indiana (4-6, Games against MD and Purdue)

Not Likely to Make It: Illinois (5-5, games against MN and NW); Minn (4-6, Games against Illinois and Wisconsin); Nebraska (5-6, Game against Iowa)

Out: MD, Purdue, Rutgers

Summary - 7 Eligible, 1 Likely, 3 Not Likely, 3 Out

Big 12:
Eligible: Baylor, OU, OSU, TCU, TTU
Likely to Make it: KSU (3-6, Games against ISU, KS and WVU)
WVU (5-4, Games against KS, ISU and KSU)

Not Likely to Make it: Texas (4-6, games against TTU and Baylor)
OUT: Kansas, Iowa State

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 OUT

C-USA:

Eligible: LT, Marshall, USM, WKU
Likely to Make it: MTSU (5-5, Games left against UNT and UTSA), ODU (5-5, Games left against USM and FAU), Rice (4-6, games left against UTSA and Charlotte)
Likely NOT to Make it: FIU (5-6, game against WKU); UTEP (4-6, games against LT and UNT)
OUT: Charlotte, FAU, UNT, UTSA

Summary: 4 Eligible, 3 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 4 OUT

Indy:

2 Eligible (ND and BYU
1 OUT (Army)

MAC:

Eligible: BG, NIU, Ohio, Toledo, WMU
Likely: Akron (5-5, games against Buff and Kent); Buffalo (5-5, games against Akron and UMass); CMU (5-5, games against Kent and EMU)
Out: BSU, EMU, Kent, UMass, Miami)

Summary - 5 Eligible, 3 Likely, 5 Out


MWC:

Eligible: AF, BSU, NV, NM, SDSU
Likely: Utah State (5-5, Games against NV and BYU), CSU (5-5, UNM, Fresno)
Not Likely: SJSU (4-6, games against HI and Boise)
OUT: Fresno, HI, UNLV, Wyoming

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 4 OUT

Pac 12:

Eligible: Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, WSU
Likely: Arizona State (5-5, games against Arizona, Cal)
Not Likely: Washington (4-6, games against Ore State and WSU)
Out: Colorado, OSU

Summary - 8 Eligible, 1 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 out)

SEC:

Eligible: AL, Ark, Fla, GA, LSU, Miss, MSU, TN, TAMU
Likely: Auburn (5-5, games against Idaho, Alabama), Missouri (5-5, games against Tenn and Ark)
Not Likely: Kentucky (4-6, games against Charlotte and Louisville); Vandy (4-6, games against TAMU and UT).
OUT: South Carolina

Summary - 9 Eiigible, 2 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 1 Out

Sun Belt:

Eligible: App State, Ark State, Ga Southern
Likely: UL-L (4-5, games against NMSU, App State, Troy); USA (5-4, Games against Ga State, Ga Southern, App State)
Not Likely: Georgia State (3-6, Games against USA, Troy and Ga Southern)
Out: Idaho, ULM, NMSU, Tex St, Troy)

Summary: 3 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT





Total:

62 Eligible
3 4-Loss Likely to be Eligible
11 5-Loss Likely to be Eligible
3 6-Loss Likely to be Eligible

79 PREDICTED TO BE ELIGIBLE

35 OUT
3 5-Loss Likely to be out
11 6-Loss Likely to be out

49 PREDICTED TO NOT BE BOWL ELIGIBLE

I'd say-
ACC- VT- odds are really good that they win vs UVA to get bowl eligible...
Big Ten- Illinois has a good chance to beat Minnesota. And Nebraska/Iowa is a toss up in Nebraska...
Big 12- wouldn't call Kansas St who has to beat Iowa St, Kansas, and WVU as likely to be eligible.
Odds really good we get all 80 necessary. I'm going to say we get 81.

I would moved Arizona State, Missouri and Utah State not likely to make it.

Virginia Tech, East Carolina, Illinois, all could likely make it.

East Carolina is not a terrible team by the way of their record.
Virginia Tech's players got the fire lit under them playing to win for Beamer's last season.
Illinois could beat Minnesota and still lose out to Northwestern.

(11-16-2015 05:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd say-
ACC- VT- odds are really good that they win vs UVA to get bowl eligible...
Big Ten- Illinois has a good chance to beat Minnesota. And Nebraska/Iowa is a toss up in Nebraska...
Big 12- wouldn't call Kansas St who has to beat Iowa St, Kansas, and WVU as likely to be eligible.
Odds really good we get all 80 necessary. I'm going to say we get 81.

Those are the three most likely to go the other way, although Rice and Indiana can't afford to let down on the road.

I think Iowa wins, Nebraska isn't a good team.


VT is the most likely of the "Not Likely" to make it.

(11-16-2015 06:02 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-16-2015 05:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd say-
ACC- VT- odds are really good that they win vs UVA to get bowl eligible...
Big Ten- Illinois has a good chance to beat Minnesota. And Nebraska/Iowa is a toss up in Nebraska...
Big 12- wouldn't call Kansas St who has to beat Iowa St, Kansas, and WVU as likely to be eligible.
Odds really good we get all 80 necessary. I'm going to say we get 81.

Those are the three most likely to go the other way, although Rice and Indiana can't afford to let down on the road.

I think Iowa wins, Nebraska isn't a good team.


VT is the most likely of the "Not Likely" to make it.

Nebraska is playing better and gets two weeks to prepare at home against Iowa, who has to go on the road in a short week. ESPN FPI basically calls it 50-50. Obviously the line isn't out, but I bet it will be within 3 points or so.

(11-16-2015 05:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  AAC:

Eligible: Cinci, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple, USF
Bubble but will make it: Tulsa (5-5, games left against Navy and Tulane)
Not Likely to Make it: UConn (5-5, games left against Houston and Temple); East Carolina (4-6, games left against UCF and Cinci)
Out: SMU, Tulane, UCF

Summary - 6 Eligible, 1 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 3 OUT

ACC:

Eligible: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, UNC, NCSU, Pitt
Not Likely to Make it: Va Tech (5-5, games left against UNC and UVA)
Out: BC, GT, Syr, VA, WF

Summary - 8 Eligible, 0 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT

Big 10

Eligible: Iowa, Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin

Likely to Make it: Indiana (4-6, Games against MD and Purdue)

Not Likely to Make It: Illinois (5-5, games against MN and NW); Minn (4-6, Games against Illinois and Wisconsin); Nebraska (5-6, Game against Iowa)

Out: MD, Purdue, Rutgers

Summary - 7 Eligible, 1 Likely, 3 Not Likely, 3 Out

Big 12:
Eligible: Baylor, OU, OSU, TCU, TTU
Likely to Make it: KSU (3-6, Games against ISU, KS and WVU)
WVU (5-4, Games against KS, ISU and KSU)

Not Likely to Make it: Texas (4-6, games against TTU and Baylor)
OUT: Kansas, Iowa State

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 OUT

Indy:

2 Eligible (ND and BYU
1 OUT (Army)

MAC:

Eligible: BG, NIU, Ohio, Toledo, WMU
Likely: Akron (5-5, games against Buff and Kent); Buffalo (5-5, games against Akron and UMass); CMU (5-5, games against Kent and EMU)
Out: BSU, EMU, Kent, UMass, Miami)

Summary - 5 Eligible, 3 Likely, 5 Out


MWC:

Eligible: AF, BSU, NV, NM, SDSU
Likely: Utah State (5-5, Games against NV and BYU), CSU (5-5, UNM, Fresno)
Not Likely: SJSU (4-6, games against HI and Boise)
OUT: Fresno, HI, UNLV, Wyoming

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 4 OUT

Pac 12:

Eligible: Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, WSU
Likely: Arizona State (5-5, games against Arizona, Cal)
Not Likely: Washington (4-6, games against Ore State and WSU)
Out: Colorado, OSU

Summary - 8 Eligible, 1 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 out)

SEC:

Eligible: AL, Ark, Fla, GA, LSU, Miss, MSU, TN, TAMU
Likely: Auburn (5-5, games against Idaho, Alabama), Missouri (5-5, games against Tenn and Ark)
Not Likely: Kentucky (4-6, games against Charlotte and Louisville); Vandy (4-6, games against TAMU and UT).
OUT: South Carolina

Summary - 9 Eiigible, 2 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 1 Out

Sun Belt:

Eligible: App State, Ark State, Ga Southern
Likely: UL-L (4-5, games against NMSU, App State, Troy); USA (5-4, Games against Ga State, Ga Southern, App State)
Not Likely: Georgia State (3-6, Games against USA, Troy and Ga Southern)
Out: Idaho, ULM, NMSU, Tex St, Troy)

Summary: 3 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT





Total:

59 Eligible
6 4-Loss Likely to be Eligible
11 5-Loss Likely to be Eligible
3 6-Loss Likely to be Eligible

79 PREDICTED TO BE ELIGIBLE

35 OUT
3 5-Loss Likely to be out
11 6-Loss Likely to be out

49 PREDICTED TO NOT BE BOWL ELIGIBLE

You missed C-USA. Could you show those as well?

(11-16-2015 06:20 PM)Surbadger Wrote:  

(11-16-2015 05:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  AAC:

Eligible: Cinci, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple, USF
Bubble but will make it: Tulsa (5-5, games left against Navy and Tulane)
Not Likely to Make it: UConn (5-5, games left against Houston and Temple); East Carolina (4-6, games left against UCF and Cinci)
Out: SMU, Tulane, UCF

Summary - 6 Eligible, 1 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 3 OUT

ACC:

Eligible: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, UNC, NCSU, Pitt
Not Likely to Make it: Va Tech (5-5, games left against UNC and UVA)
Out: BC, GT, Syr, VA, WF

Summary - 8 Eligible, 0 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT

Big 10

Eligible: Iowa, Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin

Likely to Make it: Indiana (4-6, Games against MD and Purdue)

Not Likely to Make It: Illinois (5-5, games against MN and NW); Minn (4-6, Games against Illinois and Wisconsin); Nebraska (5-6, Game against Iowa)

Out: MD, Purdue, Rutgers

Summary - 7 Eligible, 1 Likely, 3 Not Likely, 3 Out

Big 12:
Eligible: Baylor, OU, OSU, TCU, TTU
Likely to Make it: KSU (3-6, Games against ISU, KS and WVU)
WVU (5-4, Games against KS, ISU and KSU)

Not Likely to Make it: Texas (4-6, games against TTU and Baylor)
OUT: Kansas, Iowa State

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 OUT

Indy:

2 Eligible (ND and BYU
1 OUT (Army)

MAC:

Eligible: BG, NIU, Ohio, Toledo, WMU
Likely: Akron (5-5, games against Buff and Kent); Buffalo (5-5, games against Akron and UMass); CMU (5-5, games against Kent and EMU)
Out: BSU, EMU, Kent, UMass, Miami)

Summary - 5 Eligible, 3 Likely, 5 Out


MWC:

Eligible: AF, BSU, NV, NM, SDSU
Likely: Utah State (5-5, Games against NV and BYU), CSU (5-5, UNM, Fresno)
Not Likely: SJSU (4-6, games against HI and Boise)
OUT: Fresno, HI, UNLV, Wyoming

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 4 OUT

Pac 12:

Eligible: Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, WSU
Likely: Arizona State (5-5, games against Arizona, Cal)
Not Likely: Washington (4-6, games against Ore State and WSU)
Out: Colorado, OSU

Summary - 8 Eligible, 1 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 out)

SEC:

Eligible: AL, Ark, Fla, GA, LSU, Miss, MSU, TN, TAMU
Likely: Auburn (5-5, games against Idaho, Alabama), Missouri (5-5, games against Tenn and Ark)
Not Likely: Kentucky (4-6, games against Charlotte and Louisville); Vandy (4-6, games against TAMU and UT).
OUT: South Carolina

Summary - 9 Eiigible, 2 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 1 Out

Sun Belt:

Eligible: App State, Ark State, Ga Southern
Likely: UL-L (4-5, games against NMSU, App State, Troy); USA (5-4, Games against Ga State, Ga Southern, App State)
Not Likely: Georgia State (3-6, Games against USA, Troy and Ga Southern)
Out: Idaho, ULM, NMSU, Tex St, Troy)

Summary: 3 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT





Total:

59 Eligible
6 4-Loss Likely to be Eligible
11 5-Loss Likely to be Eligible
3 6-Loss Likely to be Eligible

79 PREDICTED TO BE ELIGIBLE

35 OUT
3 5-Loss Likely to be out
11 6-Loss Likely to be out

49 PREDICTED TO NOT BE BOWL ELIGIBLE

You missed C-USA. Could you show those as well?

Oops

C-USA:

Eligible: LT, Marshall, USM, WKU
Likely to Make it: MTSU (5-5, Games left against UNT and UTSA), ODU (5-5, Games left against USM and FAU), Rice (4-6, games left against UTSA and Charlotte)
Likely NOT to Make it: FIU (5-6, game against WKU); UTEP (4-6, games against LT and UNT)
OUT: Charlotte, FAU, UNT, UTSA

Summary: 4 Eligible, 3 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 4 OUT

You're predicting 86 bowl-eligible teams. There are 80 available bowl slots.

(11-16-2015 05:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  35 OUT
3 5-Loss Likely to be out
11 6-Loss Likely to be out

49 PREDICTED TO NOT BE BOWL ELIGIBLE

SO ... what conferences are likely to have excess bowl eligible teams, more teams than they have bowl slots? Are there any teams that are bowl eligible that might miss getting into a bowl?

I'll throw a $100 chip on the table for Ill beating NW, Minn beating Ill and Wisc and Neb beating Iowa.

Bring it. Let's go baby!

(11-16-2015 06:34 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-16-2015 06:20 PM)Surbadger Wrote:  

(11-16-2015 05:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  AAC:

Eligible: Cinci, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple, USF
Bubble but will make it: Tulsa (5-5, games left against Navy and Tulane)
Not Likely to Make it: UConn (5-5, games left against Houston and Temple); East Carolina (4-6, games left against UCF and Cinci)
Out: SMU, Tulane, UCF

Summary - 6 Eligible, 1 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 3 OUT

ACC:

Eligible: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, UNC, NCSU, Pitt
Not Likely to Make it: Va Tech (5-5, games left against UNC and UVA)
Out: BC, GT, Syr, VA, WF

Summary - 8 Eligible, 0 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT

Big 10

Eligible: Iowa, Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin

Likely to Make it: Indiana (4-6, Games against MD and Purdue)

Not Likely to Make It: Illinois (5-5, games against MN and NW); Minn (4-6, Games against Illinois and Wisconsin); Nebraska (5-6, Game against Iowa)

Out: MD, Purdue, Rutgers

Summary - 7 Eligible, 1 Likely, 3 Not Likely, 3 Out

Big 12:
Eligible: Baylor, OU, OSU, TCU, TTU
Likely to Make it: KSU (3-6, Games against ISU, KS and WVU)
WVU (5-4, Games against KS, ISU and KSU)

Not Likely to Make it: Texas (4-6, games against TTU and Baylor)
OUT: Kansas, Iowa State

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 OUT

Indy:

2 Eligible (ND and BYU
1 OUT (Army)

MAC:

Eligible: BG, NIU, Ohio, Toledo, WMU
Likely: Akron (5-5, games against Buff and Kent); Buffalo (5-5, games against Akron and UMass); CMU (5-5, games against Kent and EMU)
Out: BSU, EMU, Kent, UMass, Miami)

Summary - 5 Eligible, 3 Likely, 5 Out


MWC:

Eligible: AF, BSU, NV, NM, SDSU
Likely: Utah State (5-5, Games against NV and BYU), CSU (5-5, UNM, Fresno)
Not Likely: SJSU (4-6, games against HI and Boise)
OUT: Fresno, HI, UNLV, Wyoming

Summary - 5 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 4 OUT

Pac 12:

Eligible: Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, WSU
Likely: Arizona State (5-5, games against Arizona, Cal)
Not Likely: Washington (4-6, games against Ore State and WSU)
Out: Colorado, OSU

Summary - 8 Eligible, 1 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 2 out)

SEC:

Eligible: AL, Ark, Fla, GA, LSU, Miss, MSU, TN, TAMU
Likely: Auburn (5-5, games against Idaho, Alabama), Missouri (5-5, games against Tenn and Ark)
Not Likely: Kentucky (4-6, games against Charlotte and Louisville); Vandy (4-6, games against TAMU and UT).
OUT: South Carolina

Summary - 9 Eiigible, 2 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 1 Out

Sun Belt:

Eligible: App State, Ark State, Ga Southern
Likely: UL-L (4-5, games against NMSU, App State, Troy); USA (5-4, Games against Ga State, Ga Southern, App State)
Not Likely: Georgia State (3-6, Games against USA, Troy and Ga Southern)
Out: Idaho, ULM, NMSU, Tex St, Troy)

Summary: 3 Eligible, 2 Likely, 1 Not Likely, 5 OUT





Total:

59 Eligible
6 4-Loss Likely to be Eligible
11 5-Loss Likely to be Eligible
3 6-Loss Likely to be Eligible

79 PREDICTED TO BE ELIGIBLE

35 OUT
3 5-Loss Likely to be out
11 6-Loss Likely to be out

49 PREDICTED TO NOT BE BOWL ELIGIBLE

You missed C-USA. Could you show those as well?

Oops

C-USA:

Eligible: LT, Marshall, USM, WKU
Likely to Make it: MTSU (5-5, Games left against UNT and UTSA), ODU (5-5, Games left against USM and FAU), Rice (4-6, games left against UTSA and Charlotte)
Likely NOT to Make it: FIU (5-6, game against WKU); UTEP (4-6, games against LT and UNT)
OUT: Charlotte, FAU, UNT, UTSA

Summary: 4 Eligible, 3 Likely, 2 Not Likely, 4 OUT

Freudian slip?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

(11-16-2015 07:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2015 05:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  35 OUT
3 5-Loss Likely to be out
11 6-Loss Likely to be out

49 PREDICTED TO NOT BE BOWL ELIGIBLE

SO ... what conferences are likely to have excess bowl eligible teams, more teams than they have bowl slots? Are there any teams that are bowl eligible that might miss getting into a bowl?

On the past few years, 6-6 Go5 schools are most likely to round that out. So, the loser of Akron / Buffalo in the MAC, if the winner goes on to win their final game, could be left out. For any of the Go5 schools, 6-6 bowl eligibility could not be considered "job done" as far as making a bowl ... 7-5 is a much better place to be, and even that is not always secure.

Of the ones listed up front as likely, three are playing games against opponents who, if they are are having a good day, could well take them. A lot of how the end of season goes will come down to team chemistry ~ are teams with losing records just looking for the season to finish, or are they playing with a chip on their shoulder? That is especially important in neighboring rivalries, like Purdue/Indiana or UVA/VaTech.

Indiana (4-6, Games against MD and Purdue) ~ Indiana would be favored in both games, but both are upset possibilities, so needing to win both starts to multiply the chances of a slip.

KSU (3-6, Games against ISU, KS and WVU) [NB: WVU (5-4, Games against KS, ISU and KSU)], KSU could well be coming up against a Mountaineers team that is on a roll, is already bowl eligible, and is looking to upgrade the quality of their bowl invite, which is a dangerous game to have to win. And ISU's upset threat against the Cardiac Cowboys (Go Pokes!) shows that you cannot just look past them to next week's opponent.

Missouri (5-5, games against Tenn and Ark) ~ on a good day, the Vols can put up a lot of points, and while Arkansas had a horrible September, losing to Texas A&M, after losing to Texas Tech, after losing to the Toledo Rockets, they have done much better since, with their only additional loss to high-ranked Alabama. If Mizzou gets upset by the Vols, this looks like the "likely" tag slips out of their hands.

(11-16-2015 07:01 PM)Wedge Wrote:  You're predicting 86 bowl-eligible teams. There are 80 available bowl slots.

By my tally, he is predicting 79 teams eligible. In my own analysis, I also came up with 79 likely. I think Virginia Tech will win at least one against either UNC or Virginia. But I don't see Kansas State winning out to salvage a spot.

There still could be upsets that will let somebody sneak in, but it will come down to the wire to avoid having to go to 5-7 teams. In a way, I hope we don't make it, forcing the NCAA to take a hard look at how many bowls they sanction.

I have 62 bowl eligible teams right now...
AAC 6
ACC 8
B12 5
B10 7
CUS 4
MAC 5
MWC 5
P12 8
SEC 9
SBC 3
Ind 2

you add in the 23 likely to make it by his count and you get 85 there.

(11-16-2015 10:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I have 62 bowl eligible teams right now...
AAC 6
ACC 8
B12 5
B10 7
CUS 4
MAC 5
MWC 5
P12 8
SEC 9
SBC 3
Ind 2

you add in the 23 likely to make it by his count and you get 85 there.

I am a little confused myself.

You are correct, if you add up the # of elligible teams, it equals 62.

But then if you add up the # of likely, those equal 17 total.

62 + 17 = 79.

lol. I think odds are really good we're going to have enough. It'll be much harder to not have enough than to have too many.

Your school would have to REALLY suck to not make a bowl. #ParticipationTrophy, #MonetizingtotheLimit, #WhyBother?

(11-17-2015 08:55 AM)miko33 Wrote:  Your school would have to REALLY suck to not make a bowl. #ParticipationTrophy, #MonetizingtotheLimit, #WhyBother?

Hey, now, the Golden Flashes don't totally suck. Their offense totally sucks, but not their defense.

(11-17-2015 01:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. I think odds are really good we're going to have enough. It'll be much harder to not have enough than to have too many.

In ordinary odds, you'd say that so many "likelies" will almost certainly have several come up the other way, if they were independent ... but many of them are playing to go bowling, against schools who have nothing left to play for but pride, and in those situations the favored team is a lot less likely to get upset ...

... upsets are more likely in situations where the favored team is "looking past" the school coming up to the games coming up after (where the Cardiac Cowboys [Go Pokes!] against ISU is an excellent example of looking past the game ahead of you to the challenges coming up), and those, by their nature, tend to happen earlier in the season.

I think Kansas State, Rice, Colorado State, and Utah State all fall short. I like Kentucky's chances over Missouri's, oddly. Neither look likely, though.

Indiana could flub it up, too.

No way do eight bowl eligible MAC schools all go.

Strangely, I don't think it's completely out there that both ECU and UConn make it.

lets look
Kansas St- Iowa St, Kansas, WVU- need to win all 3- agree won't make it
Rice- UTSA, Charlotte- need win both- should make it
Colorado St- New Mexico, Fresno- need win 1- should make it
Utah St- Nevada, BYU- need win 1- should beat Nevada

MAC- got 5
Buffalo and Akron play. That's 6.
If Buffalo loses they get Kent St.
If Akron loses they get UMass
that should be 7.
CMU gets Kent St and EMU. That should be 8.
The floor is absolutely 7. And really 8 is close to a lock.