Tier 1-maybe can afford a loss
Clemson
Ohio State
Iowa
Oklahoma St.

Tier 2-definitely cannot afford a loss
Alabama
Florida
Notre Dame
Michigan St.

Tier 3-need help
TCU
Baylor
Oklahoma

Tier 4-very little hope
UNC
Houston

Iowa and Okie St will not be in the top 4.

Sorry but TCU and Baylor are tier 4- they have very little hope. And Oklahoma St doesn't control their own destiny at all- and sure as hell can't afford a loss. Also, Oklahoma should be in tier 2.

(11-15-2015 10:45 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Tier 1-maybe can afford a loss
Clemson - will go undefeated.
Ohio State - will go undefeated.
Iowa - will lose one or two games.
Oklahoma St. - will lose to Oklahoma

Tier 2-definitely cannot afford a loss
Alabama - nobody in the SEC is going to beat them.
Florida - will lose to FSU and title game.
Notre Dame - wins out.
Michigan St. - loses one or two more games.

Tier 3-need help
TCU
Baylor
Oklahoma

Tier 4-very little hope
UNC
Houston

Final four playoff heading into this week:

Notre Dame
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State

Oklahoma needs someone to get beat. The committee isn't going to have a blueblood jump a blueblood. So, if Clemson loses, they are toast if Notre Dame and Oklahoma win out.

Can anyone really afford a loss going forward?

(11-15-2015 12:50 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Can anyone really afford a loss going forward?

thinking about it Terry- maybe only Clemson in these next 2 games. Ohio St now really can't afford a loss as if they lose, they won't win the Big Ten. Iowa won't get in at 12-1. Oklahoma St won't get in at 11-1. Great point Terry.

I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Here are some lose and in scenarios:

1. Iowa wins B1G at 12-1 (ND two losses falls out).
2. SEC champ with two losses (beats out Stanford)
3. Ohio St one loss runner up
4. Tar Heels one loss champ, Clemson one loss runner up (let's say you have Bama, ND, SEC, and Big 12 at one loss, so Not a "lose and in" per say, but I truly feel Clemson is out in this scenario as CCG carry more weight and the ND win was at home and not on the road. Tar Heels get in at four, so yeah, I think UNC is very much alive).

(11-15-2015 12:50 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Can anyone really afford a loss going forward?

Not if the other teams win.

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

(11-15-2015 01:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

You'd have
1 Big Ten Ohio St/Iowa/Mich St
2 SEC Alabama/Florida
3 Big 12 team

and then Notre Dame. So what help would they need exactly?

(11-15-2015 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

You'd have
1 Big Ten Ohio St/Iowa/Mich St
2 SEC Alabama/Florida
3 Big 12 team

and then Notre Dame. So what help would they need exactly?

Alright, counting wrong. May not need help.

But still by no means certain they beat out ND with a late bad loss when they only beat ND by 2 at home. And by no means certain a conference championship will get them by with a schedule growing weaker vs. a 1 loss non-champ in Big 10 or Big 12 with late season good wins. Their preference for the eyeball test and recency effect make their decisions really uncertain.

OU is the only one loss team in the Big 12 that can bounce Clemson. But even then, it's a stretch. The ACC can still get two teams in possibly. If OU doesn't win the Big 12, Clemson should be ahead of that conference still even should they lose to UNC. If ND loses it can go:

1. Bama
2. B1G champ
3. UNC
4. B1G runner up/Big 12 one loss/Clemson one loss/Houston

I like Clemson in the slot over Ohio st and OU, but it will depend on how the ACC title game plays out/type of loss.

(11-15-2015 01:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

You'd have
1 Big Ten Ohio St/Iowa/Mich St
2 SEC Alabama/Florida
3 Big 12 team

and then Notre Dame. So what help would they need exactly?

Alright, counting wrong. May not need help.

But still by no means certain they beat out ND with a late bad loss when they only beat ND by 2 at home. And by no means certain a conference championship will get them by with a schedule growing weaker vs. a 1 loss non-champ in Big 10 or Big 12 with late season good wins. Their preference for the eyeball test and recency effect make their decisions really uncertain.

Conference championship boost will save Clemson. And absolute LOL at thinking a 1 loss Big 12 non champion would have a chance at all.

(11-15-2015 01:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

You'd have
1 Big Ten Ohio St/Iowa/Mich St
2 SEC Alabama/Florida
3 Big 12 team

and then Notre Dame. So what help would they need exactly?

Alright, counting wrong. May not need help.

But still by no means certain they beat out ND with a late bad loss when they only beat ND by 2 at home. And by no means certain a conference championship will get them by with a schedule growing weaker vs. a 1 loss non-champ in Big 10 or Big 12 with late season good wins. Their preference for the eyeball test and recency effect make their decisions really uncertain.

Conference championship boost will save Clemson. And absolute LOL at thinking a 1 loss Big 12 non champion would have a chance at all.

1 loss Big 12 champ beats out a 1 loss Clemson team. Big 12 is much stronger top to bottom. And the Big 12 champ will have more good wins, more recent good wins and better road wins.

Clemson has
ND home
FSU home
maybe UNC neutral
Best other win is road at Louisville
Loss would be home vs WF or road vs. South Carolina-both late

OU would have
@ Baylor
@ OSU
TCU home
Best other wins would be @ TN or WVU home
Loss Texas neutral back in October

Baylor would have
@ OSU
@TCU
Best other win WVU
Loss OU at home 11/15

TCU would have
@OU
Baylor home
Best other win WVU
Loss at OSU 11/8

OSU would have
TCU home
Baylor or OU home
Best road and other win WVU
Loss Baylor/OU at home

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

You're probably right

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

South Carolina will be a trap game for sure. Basically have two weeks to prepare and if it's a night game it will definitely be the most hostile atmosphere they've played in

(11-15-2015 02:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

You'd have
1 Big Ten Ohio St/Iowa/Mich St
2 SEC Alabama/Florida
3 Big 12 team

and then Notre Dame. So what help would they need exactly?

Alright, counting wrong. May not need help.

But still by no means certain they beat out ND with a late bad loss when they only beat ND by 2 at home. And by no means certain a conference championship will get them by with a schedule growing weaker vs. a 1 loss non-champ in Big 10 or Big 12 with late season good wins. Their preference for the eyeball test and recency effect make their decisions really uncertain.

Conference championship boost will save Clemson. And absolute LOL at thinking a 1 loss Big 12 non champion would have a chance at all.

1 loss Big 12 champ beats out a 1 loss Clemson team. Big 12 is much stronger top to bottom. And the Big 12 champ will have more good wins, more recent good wins and better road wins.

Clemson has
ND home
FSU home
maybe UNC neutral
Best other win is road at Louisville
Loss would be home vs WF or road vs. South Carolina-both late

OU would have
@ Baylor
@ OSU
TCU home
Best other wins would be @ TN or WVU home
Loss Texas neutral back in October

Baylor would have
@ OSU
@TCU
Best other win WVU
Loss OU at home 11/15

TCU would have
@OU
Baylor home
Best other win WVU
Loss at OSU 11/8

OSU would have
TCU home
Baylor or OU home
Best road and other win WVU
Loss Baylor/OU at home

It would Clemson vs one of TCU, Baylor, or 1 loss Oklahoma St. Sorry but with the absolute crap schedules of especially Baylor and Oklahoma St- they wouldn't stand a chance. Clemson would have 10 P5 games- going 9-1 in those 10. The strength of conference is MEANIGLESS, it's the strength of the individual team.

(11-15-2015 01:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 12:57 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I don't think anyone can afford a loss. I think that the old "late season loss" idea from the past is still alive with the Committee.

I think Clemson loses one of these next 2 weeks but wins the ACC title game- they would be safe. They would be 12-1. You have Ohio St/Mich St/Iowa from Big Ten. You have Alabama/Florida from SEC. You have Big 12 team. The only other option is Notre Dame- and with the head to head, Clemson would have that spot.

Clemson is probably dead with a loss in the next two weeks. Wake Forest or South Carolina? They would need a lot of help. They'd have a hard time with a late loss like that beating out any 1 loss team other than Notre Dame.

Clemson will beat both of those teams handily.....the team Clemson has to worry about is North Carolina