(11-13-2015 08:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  OU would be in in such a scenario no doubt, having the head to head wins over the top three teams in the conference. Unlikely, but possible. I think a one loss Utah would have the edge over them, but my intentions were the B1G/Pac producing two 2 loss champs.

Well, the when, where and how all the wins and losses occur will matter in such a situation ( or really any scenarios). You have to know all the variables to predict, including in some cases down the line games that don't even involve teams in contention. That is what is so great about the 538 data. You have to get specific in any what if scenarios, and it starts getting rather complicated.

Win out scenarios are the easiest to process, especially for the top 5 or 6. Even then, predicting the committee can be tough. After that we pretty much have to wait and see.

(11-13-2015 07:43 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Question:

1. Big 12 cannibalizes each other to produce 1 loss champ.
2. Michigan wins B1G
3. ND wins out, but Stanford wins Pac 12.

Who gets in at number 4?

1. Clemson
2. SEC champ (one loss)
3. ND
4. LSU/Big 12/Pac 12?

This obviously also assumes that Clemson wins out and that either Florida wins out or Alabama wins out & Ole Miss doesn't beat LSU.

In that case, along with the other assumptions you state, I agree that Clemson, SEC champ and Notre Dame are in.

I agree that 2 loss Michigan is out and would also say that 2 loss Stanford is out.


I don't agree that a second team from any conference will be considered.


That leaves the 1 loss XII champ. But why not also consider 1 loss Ohio St? Maybe it doesn't seem fair to include them without winning the conference. But all that really boils down to is not playing the CCG. Well, neither did the XII champ.

In fact, it's conceivable that both Ohio St and the XII champ could have lost on Thanksgiving weekend, their last game played, and then not play a game on CCG weekend. I think it would have to be Oklahoma St, in that case, losing their rivalry game to 2 loss OU. TCU and Oklahoma already have a loss and Baylor plays Texas on CCG weekend.

The similarities would be pretty stark!

(11-13-2015 07:43 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Question:

1. Big 12 cannibalizes each other to produce 1 loss champ.
2. Michigan wins B1G
3. ND wins out, but Stanford wins Pac 12.

Who gets in at number 4?

1. Clemson
2. SEC champ (one loss)
3. ND
4. LSU/Big 12/Pac 12?

If Michigan wins out.... They have to be in the equation, especially after beating two top 5 teams in back to back weeks. Plus Harbaugh in the CFP his first season at Michigan....... ESPN would eat that crap up.

(11-13-2015 02:12 PM)utpotts Wrote:  

(11-13-2015 07:43 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Question:

1. Big 12 cannibalizes each other to produce 1 loss champ.
2. Michigan wins B1G
3. ND wins out, but Stanford wins Pac 12.

Who gets in at number 4?

1. Clemson
2. SEC champ (one loss)
3. ND
4. LSU/Big 12/Pac 12?

If Michigan wins out.... They have to be in the equation, especially after beating two top 5 teams in back to back weeks. Plus Harbaugh in the CFP his first season at Michigan....... ESPN would eat that crap up.

I rather see a no loss Houston in than a 2 time loser of Michigan in. Plus, Michigan lost to Michigan State, so I do not think it would be possible unless Iowa loses 2, Michigan State loses 2 and Ohio State losing 2.