I think a lot of people have underestimated the impact of the Reds elevating Dick Williams. I really like what I've heard from him regarding advanced baseball metrics. In any event, I'm expecting a pretty active off-season and it could be heating up right now:

Quote:Peter Gammons Verified account
‏@pgammo

That's four people insisting this morning that Aroldys Chapman will be moved by the end of the weekend.

Gammons is well connected with Boston and there are reports that the Bosox are interested in Chapman and that they might be looking to deal Jackie Bradley, Jr. They've got the money to sign Chapman to a long term deal and also have a strong farm system. I could certainly see a Chapman deal happening with them.

I think with Deslafani, Igleseas, the return of Bailey, the Royals kids (Reed may end up the best), Stephenson, Garrett the Reds are well set up with quality and depth in the rotation. Every trade they make should be trying to guys who can help the offense for 2017 and beyond.

Rosenthal throws a couple of sticks into the (still small) fire:

Quote: Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2h2 hours ago

As expected, #RedSox aggressive on multiple fronts. Chapman believed to be one. Team also could go for setup type to put in front of Uehara.

Quote:Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 53m53 minutes ago

Sources: #RedSox doing background work on #Reds’ Chapman. Indicates sincerity of interest, not that a deal is close.

Bowden too

Quote:Jim Bowden ‏@JimBowden_ESPN 28m28 minutes ago

Reds fit best with #Astros & #RedSox in an Aroldis Chapman trade bc of strong farm systems and pressing need at ML level for Closer

Btw, it looks like MLB changed the rules about trading recent draft picks so Boston could trade Andrew Benitendi if they were so inclined...

No need to have a closer when you are losing 100 games a year.

Get some good prospects to build with and let somebody else pay Chapman for his once a week appearance.

Get the best prospect package you can get. You can always trade pitching prospects for hitting prospects down the line.

There was some internet fodder about BP getting moved also. I think it was Rosenthal talking about it.

(11-12-2015 02:35 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  I think with Deslafani, Igleseas, the return of Bailey, the Royals kids (Reed may end up the best), Stephenson, Garrett the Reds are well set up with quality and depth in the rotation. Every trade they make should be trying to guys who can help the offense for 2017 and beyond.

Was disappointed from what I heard from from Marty on the radio in that Stephenson may never make it as a starter because he insists on throwing every pitch like it needs to go through a brick wall despite years of coaching telling him not to do so. Sounds like a hard head destined for the bullpen.

(11-12-2015 04:12 PM)BeerCat Wrote:  There was some internet fodder about BP getting moved also. I think it was Rosenthal talking about it.

Makes sense at this point. I'm a huge BP critic but with only two years left on his deal he's probably tradeable at this point. I don't think they'd get much for him but considering the Reds aren't going anywhere in 2016 and likely 17 it makes sense to put his salary towards player development or just hold onto the money for future flexibility.

(11-12-2015 04:24 PM)JackieTreehorn Wrote:  

(11-12-2015 02:35 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  I think with Deslafani, Igleseas, the return of Bailey, the Royals kids (Reed may end up the best), Stephenson, Garrett the Reds are well set up with quality and depth in the rotation. Every trade they make should be trying to guys who can help the offense for 2017 and beyond.

Was disappointed from what I heard from from Marty on the radio in that Stephenson may never make it as a starter because he insists on throwing every pitch like it needs to go through a brick wall despite years of coaching telling him not to do so. Sounds like a hard head destined for the bullpen.

Wasn't that Homer's problem also?

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 8m8 minutes ago

Source: #RedSox acquiring Kimbrel from #Padres. Return not yet known.

(11-13-2015 07:44 PM)BeerCat Wrote:  Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 8m8 minutes ago

Source: #RedSox acquiring Kimbrel from #Padres. Return not yet known.

Quote:@Ken_Rosenthal: #Padres getting Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, and Allen from #RedSox for Kimbrel, per @JonHeymanCBS, @alexspeier and others.

That's a pretty nice haul for the Pads. Not exactly apples to apples though since even though Chapman ranks just ahead of Kimbrel among relievers, Kimbrel comes locked up for 3 years compared to 1 for Chapman. Good news is it helps set up a high market price for a premiere closer; bad news is one of the prime buyers is presumably no longer interested.

Chapman is on a different level though, so even if the years were the same it would be a difficult comparison.

Hopefully this puts pressure on other teams, they panic and the Reds get a great return.

(11-13-2015 09:06 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  Chapman is on a different level though, so even if the years were the same it would be a difficult comparison.

Hopefully this puts pressure on other teams, they panic and the Reds get a great return.

I took the pessimistic approach and assumed that now there's one less buyer, which means less demand, which my mean the Reds making a concession.

(11-13-2015 09:08 PM)BeerCat Wrote:  

(11-13-2015 09:06 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  Chapman is on a different level though, so even if the years were the same it would be a difficult comparison.

Hopefully this puts pressure on other teams, they panic and the Reds get a great return.

I took the pessimistic approach and assumed that now there's one less buyer, which means less demand, which my mean the Reds making a concession.

It also means one less in supply of an item already in scarcity (arguably the list of realistically available premiere closers just went from two to one). I think almost everyone would take Chapman over Kimbrel all other things being equal, but Kimbrel is pretty darn good and the same age as Chapman (27):

Quote:Kimbrel, 27, reached 30 saves for the fifth consecutive season, going 4-2 with 39 saves and a 2.58 ERA in 61 appearances. Since the start of his first full major league season in 2011, Kimbrel leads all major league relievers in saves (224) and is second in ERA (1.70), strikeouts (523), strikeouts per nine innings (14.37), and save percentage (90.7).

Kimbrel is signed for $11M in 2016; $13M in 2017; and a team option for $13M for 2018.

Chapman is probably looking at around $11-13M in arbitration next year but you could sign him to a LTC instead. Hard to say what Chapman's next contract will be even if you assume he remains a reliever. If you sign him he might be looking at around 4 years and $60M if I had to make a guess. If you don't sign him, you could make him a qualifying offer (it is $15.8M this year) after 2016 instead. He might just take that. If he doesn't, you still get a sandwich draft pick as compensation (at least that's how I understand the situation). If I were an acquiring team, I think I'd be willing to pay just a little more in trade to acquire Kimbrel than I would to trade for Chapman but it really depends on what my current roster, budget, other options and future plans are. But that's a moot issue now anyway.

I don't like losing Boston as a potential buyer as they seemed like a potentially strong fit, but maybe this puts pressure on the rest of the potential Chapman suitors (e.g. Dusty's Nats, AZ, Toronto, Atlanta, Detroit, Houston) to put their best offer forward now. And I'm sure the Yankees in particular would love to one up Boston by adding Chapman. All in all, I'd be pretty happy with the equivalent of that Padres haul if the Reds could get it for Chapman. Guess I need to start looking over their prospects....