OOC Preview - Auburn
I plan on previewing the main out of conference games. I'll try to post most of them before the season starts. I didn't watch Auburn play last year, so this is based off what I've read and what I can pull from the box scores. Please chime in if you have other insight.
On Roster, Not Playing:
Auburn's roster is in some turmoil, and it's still not clear who will be playing for them on Friday. The main missing pieces are Tahj Shamsid-Deen, Trayvon Reed and Danjel Purifoy. TSD, typically the starting point guard when healthy, is out for a month with a shoulder injury. He dealt with subluxations in both shoulders last year and missed a lot of time. Bruce Pearl has repeatedly referred to him as the team's best on-ball defender despite his small stature and lack of steals. Trayvon Reed, a 7'2" center, is not enrolled this semester. Danjel Purifoy is Auburn's top-rated recruit, but the NCAA has not cleared him to play. There's no timetable on when he will be cleared or not, so it likely won't happen before the game.
Returning Players:
Auburn returns two starters from last year and one major role player. The starters are seniors Cinmeon Bowers and Jordon Granger. Bowers (6'7", 250 lbs) was the leading rebounder and second leading scorer last year. He was a poor free throw shooter (47.8%) and three point shooter (17.9%). He slimmed down over the summer to build his stamina. He played 30 minutes per game last year, but said he wore down near the end of games. Pearl says he wants Bowers to shoot more threes and play more of "a Draymond Green role." After only making 5-28 from deep last year, I have my doubts of how well that will work. Bowers continued his bad FT shooting in the exhibition against Indianapolis (3-13), but did put up 17 points and 8 rebounds. If nothing else, we could have Smallwood come in and foul him five times. The other returning starter is Jordon Granger (6'8", 220 lbs), a small forward making a position change from power forward. He doesn't take many shots, but picks his spots well and puts up good shooting percentages. For example, he only took four shots against Indianapolis in 25 minutes, but he hit three of them including two from deep. It's worth noting that he fouled out of that exhibition. He was Auburn's leading shotblocker last year with only 22. That would have ranked just fourth on UAB last year. I'm surprised that Pearl is moving Granger to the 3 because it kills the frontcourt depth. True freshman Horace Spencer is the only real backup big. The returning role player is small forward TJ Lang (6'7", 200 lbs). Lang played 13.8 mpg in 27 games as a freshman last year. He is dealing with an MCL sprain and only played nine minutes in the exhibition against Indianapolis. He'll play, but might be slowed against us. Outside of some walk-ons, everyone else is new.
Incoming Transfers:
Kareem Canty (6'1", 185 lbs) sat out last year as a transfer from Marshall. Versus Indianapolis, he led Auburn in minutes played, points, and assists. He also hit all 13 of his free throws. He and Baxter are about the same size, and I think they will be crossmatched when Auburn has the ball. He played against UAB once while at Marshall. He had a pretty good day statistically, but we won the game. Barring foul trouble, Canty is probably going to be asked to play 35+ minutes on Friday. Tyler Harris (6'10", 228 lbs) is a graduate transfer from Providence who will start in the frontcourt. He averaged 10 points and 4 rebounds in 27 minutes per game last year. His performance in the exhibition had its good: 20 points and 6 rebounds, and its bad: he fouled out after just 18 minutes. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has more trouble scoring on Mehinti and/or Lee. I wonder if he'll be able to stay on the court. The last transfer is TJ Dunans, a 6'5", 174 lbs juco guard. He didn't start in the exhibition, but wound up playing 30 minutes and scoring 14 points. Auburn will likely lean on him for heavy minutes until Lang is healthier, Purifoy gets cleared, or the freshman come along. Speaking of freshmen...
The Freshmen:
Horace Spencer (6'8", 220 lbs) is the highest rated recruit who played against Indianapolis, and it showed. He scored 17 points and led the team with 11 rebounds. He'll likely get matched up against Cokley several times since they'll both be coming off the bench. It should be a good test to see how newly bulked up Cokley plays. Three other guards played in the exhibition, New Williams (6'2", 170 lbs), Bryce Brown (6'2", 195 lbs) and walk-on Zach Allison (6'2", 166 lbs). They combined for 33 minutes played and 11 points scored, but were mostly inconsequential in the box score. Allison is getting minutes because he's the only other healthy point guard on the team. Williams and Brown were three star recruits. I expect all three to get into the game but only play single-digit minutes each.
As you can see, Auburn has a talented but unstable roster. Several pieces are missing, and several others are new. Canty and Bowers are the two main players we need to stop. Lee versus Bowers should be a good matchup, and so should the potential bench matchup of Cokley and Spencer. Indianapolis did most of its scoring from the wing, so I could see Rob or Dirk having a big game. Really any wing could do well; those two just have the highest offensive ceiling. If Auburn runs into foul trouble again, we definitely have the depth to exploit it. Auburn's biggest strength will be home court advantage. It will be a rowdy sellout crowd. Plus the Tiggers won't look past us like they might have done against Indianapolis. The biggest tactical question is how much they clean up the defense by Friday. We need to move the ball on offense and force rotations. It's fair to bring up our road struggles last year. This game would be a bigger road win than any from last year. But this is a new year. And UAB returns 90% of its minutes played from last year. Auburn returns 34%, accounting for TSD and Reed not playing. I think it will be close, but I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. Roster continuity is huge. I'll make my winner and score prediction on Friday.
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OOC Preview - Auburn
