Nick in Cleveland
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Nick's Picks
With all of these mid-week games it's hard to say anymore which week we are on now, so here is this week's mid-week games. Currently I stand at 66-20 (77%).
Lots of very good games this week highlighted by CMU/Toledo & BG/Western. Overall I see all of these games this week being very close and in fact, this may be one of those whacky MAC weeks where several "favorites" fall.
Kent St 20 - Ohio 16
This is a game the Bobcats should win but for some reason they are in a real funk right now. Kent is an offensively challenged team that just may put it all together for one night to get the win. This is more of a gut feeling than a lock.
Toledo 30 - Central 24
This is a really big game...basically a "play out game" as the loser of this contest will be out of the MAC West race. Because of what's on the line I see this as a real dog fight going down to the wire. Central's coach should be the coach of the year if I had a vote as he and that staff have done a wonderful job this season. Toledo is a real mystery as this team has not played to it's talent level in many games this year including last week's loss to NIU. I'll give the nod to the Rockets believing that their QB cannot possibly play that bad two weeks in a row but don't be surprised if Cooper Rush & Co win this game.
NIU 28 - Buffalo 20
If the Huskies feel they have a breather now that they won at Toledo they are in for a surprise; this UB team is better than advertised and very well coached with their new staff. Joe Licata is quietly one of the better QBs in the MAC. Look for another contest to go down to the wire and I'll give the nod to the defending MAC Champs.
Western 41 - BG 38
BG has the leagues best offense...Western is playing their best football season right now. This could be part I of a two part series as these two teams could very well meet in the MACC. My predicted score may be a little low, I would not be surprised to see a 55-52 game either. I'm giving the nod to the team from the west.
Akron 21 - Miami 14
The Zips still can finish if they win out...so that motivation of playing for something should take them over the hump to victory. This Miami team is starting to play much better and should be more of a force next season.
UMass 45 - Eastern 28
The Minutemen need this win to salvage any credibility to an already putrid season. The Eagles/Hurons seemed to have packed it in after their drubbing against Akron last month.
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11-10-2015 09:25 AM |
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Redwingtom
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RE: Nick's Picks
Couple points...you really don't know the reason OU is in a funk? They do this pretty much every year for starters, but they mostly have been devastated by injuries.
And on Toledo's QB not having 2 bad weeks in a row...he's not really had two "good" weeks in a row all year, other than the two in a row against the two worst teams they played all year in EMU and UMass. He's statistically one of the worst rated QB's in the whole MAC. Before last weekend's games, only Reardon/Bollas (Kent) and Bahl (Miami-OH) had worse ratings.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2015 10:06 AM by Redwingtom.)
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11-10-2015 10:03 AM |
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El Grande Flippero
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RE: Nick's Picks
BGSU/WMU may come down to who has the ball last....although if the rough weather arrives during the game, it could turn everything upside down. I honestly feel it's a pick em and likely a preview of the MACC.
UT/CMU...Ely isn't good and Cooper Rush is quite good. CMU by 6.
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11-10-2015 10:23 AM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Nick's Picks
Ely played fantastic against Arkansas, despite low point totals. Our ability to convert on 3rd down and not turn the ball over is how we controlled field position. Oline penalties by us was our only subpar facit of that game. He played well vs Iowa State too, but Toledo dropped 8?10? passes... One streak down the middle with no one in 20 yards of Dionte Johnson made ESPN notTop10. He played fine against Arkansas State... Fine against Kent and EMU... He had a bad 1st quarter against Ball State, bad first half against UMass, and bad entire game vs NIU.
We have the best rushing O in the conference, he doesn't need to throw for 400 and 4 TD's. Logan Woodside didn't blow anyone away last season either. I would say receiver play is more to Blame than Ely.... The NIU game is the real exception, and that's one people watched on TV so everyone thinks he sucks.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2015 12:05 PM by UofToledoFans.)
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11-10-2015 12:04 PM |
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NIU007
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RE: Nick's Picks
Rush will have to be very good since they won't be able to run the ball much. I'm thinking Toledo wins that one by 7.
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11-10-2015 12:10 PM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Nick's Picks
In 2013 vs UT, Rush threw for 214 yds, 1TD, 2INT's, and 2FMBL's, with a fumble 6 and pick 6 a part of those stats.
In 2014 vs UT, Rush threw for 291, 2TD's, 1INT, and 1FMBL.
He needs to improve on both of those if they don't have Rawls in the backfield and are only averaging 97ypg on the ground.
Maybe Enos was the reason CMU hasn't been able to tame Toledo? I think CMU is good, and they could throw for 6TD's and 400 in the air. Or we bottle him up again, and Toledo comes home with a W. UT is 10th in passing D, but 1st? in passing efficiency??? Which means teams are throwing a lot because they can't run. Yards will come when 30-40 plays are through the air.
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11-10-2015 12:20 PM |
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george14
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-10-2015 12:20 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: In 2013 vs UT, Rush threw for 214 yds, 1TD, 2INT's, and 2FMBL's, with a fumble 6 and pick 6 a part of those stats.
In 2014 vs UT, Rush threw for 291, 2TD's, 1INT, and 1FMBL.
He needs to improve on both of those if they don't have Rawls in the backfield and are only averaging 97ypg on the ground.
Maybe Enos was the reason CMU hasn't been able to tame Toledo? I think CMU is good, and they could throw for 6TD's and 400 in the air. Or we bottle him up again, and Toledo comes home with a W. UT is 10th in passing D, but 1st? in passing efficiency??? Which means teams are throwing a lot because they can't run. Yards will come when 30-40 plays are through the air.
The game last year was really decided by that onside kick from UT. Other than that it was pretty even. And I also remember late CMU was driving and Rice fumbled on like the 5 yard line. It was a good game last year.
Should be interesting because while Rush is much better this year, you're right, we do not have Rawls who was a beast.
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11-10-2015 02:21 PM |
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toddjnsn
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RE: Nick's Picks
I don't think Ely played Fantastic against Arkansas. He seemed like a good leader, made no mistakes, etc. Threw for 55% with a lot of short-yardage passing being completed. It was a nice game to hang his hat on, given it was an SEC opponent, sure. Point being: It wasn't a "Wow, this guy's Great!" performance. It was more a "Hmmm, this guy could be good..."
Against Iowa State -- who is not a good team -- he threw for 39%, 1TD, 1INT. Average pass completion 4.9 yards.
Against Arkansas State -- he threw for 48%, 0TD, 1INT.
Against Ball State -- great completion at 73%, 2TD, but also had 2INT as well.
Against Kent State -- good game -- 59% completion, 2TD, 0INT.
Against EMU -- good game -- 66.7% completion, 4TD, 0INT (it's EMU tho; we're all going to throw well there)
Against UMass -- horrible 1st half, but very good 2nd -- overall, 55% completion 5TD, but 3INT
Against NIU -- 45.5% completion, 1TD, 2INT
Bottom Line: He can play decent, but he can also falter. The UMass game sort of was a bubble of how he is -- you don't know what to expect.
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11-10-2015 02:51 PM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-10-2015 02:51 PM)toddjnsn Wrote: I don't think Ely played Fantastic against Arkansas. He seemed like a good leader, made no mistakes, etc. Threw for 55% with a lot of short-yardage passing being completed. It was a nice game to hang his hat on, given it was an SEC opponent, sure. Point being: It wasn't a "Wow, this guy's Great!" performance. It was more a "Hmmm, this guy could be good..."
Against Iowa State -- who is not a good team -- he threw for 39%, 1TD, 1INT. Average pass completion 4.9 yards.
Against Arkansas State -- he threw for 48%, 0TD, 1INT.
Against Ball State -- great completion at 73%, 2TD, but also had 2INT as well.
Against Kent State -- good game -- 59% completion, 2TD, 0INT.
Against EMU -- good game -- 66.7% completion, 4TD, 0INT (it's EMU tho; we're all going to throw well there)
Against UMass -- horrible 1st half, but very good 2nd -- overall, 55% completion 5TD, but 3INT
Against NIU -- 45.5% completion, 1TD, 2INT
Bottom Line: He can play decent, but he can also falter. The UMass game sort of was a bubble of how he is -- you don't know what to expect.
Arkansas "B+"
Iowa State "B-" you have no idea how many balls were dropped by receivers... Watch the first overtime again.
Arkansas State "C+" we ran it all over them in the redzone. Still had 300 yards i think?
Ball State "B-" he threw 2 picks in the first quarter then corrected himself. More dropped balls in this game. More than usual in CFB.
Kent "B" did enough to win. Was picked on a blocked pass at the goal line.
EMU "A"
UMass "F first half, A second half"
NIU "F" had no confidence, couldn't complete screens, missed open guys... Not much good.
There are really two Ely's you will see. But he has looked formidable more often then not, and bad more recent than he was playing well.
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11-10-2015 03:10 PM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Nick's Picks
Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
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11-11-2015 06:04 AM |
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CMUprof
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
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11-11-2015 08:04 AM |
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emu steve
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: (11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
WMU? With a win at home tonight, they are the favorites. Correct?
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11-11-2015 10:54 AM |
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BarsemaBone2
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 10:54 AM)emu steve Wrote: (11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: (11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
WMU? With a win at home tonight, they are the favorites. Correct?
On paper, yes, WMU is the favorite because they currently have no conference losses.
HOWEVER, does anyone, including WMU fans, think that they can go through their last 3 games (BG, @NIU, @Toledo) 2-1? That's a lot to ask, especially when the last 2 are on the road.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2015 12:41 PM by BarsemaBone2.)
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11-11-2015 12:40 PM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Nick's Picks
If WMU goes 2-1 with a loss to Toledo, and Toledo goes 2-0 we get the nod. If WMU is 2-1 their loss has to be to BG, or hope for NIU/Toledo to lose one of their other games.
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11-11-2015 01:12 PM |
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westernwilly
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 12:40 PM)BarsemaBone2 Wrote: (11-11-2015 10:54 AM)emu steve Wrote: (11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: (11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
WMU? With a win at home tonight, they are the favorites. Correct?
On paper, yes, WMU is the favorite because they currently have no conference losses.
HOWEVER, does anyone, including WMU fans, think that they can go through their last 3 games (BG, @NIU, @Toledo) 2-1? That's a lot to ask, especially when the last 2 are on the road.
Yes, I do.
We take it one game at a time. I am not being arrogant and saying that we are going to win them all, just that we are taking it one game at a time with the mind set that we will play hard and smart to win each day that we play.
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11-11-2015 01:16 PM |
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RedandBlackAttack
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 01:16 PM)westernwilly Wrote: (11-11-2015 12:40 PM)BarsemaBone2 Wrote: (11-11-2015 10:54 AM)emu steve Wrote: (11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: (11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
WMU? With a win at home tonight, they are the favorites. Correct?
On paper, yes, WMU is the favorite because they currently have no conference losses.
HOWEVER, does anyone, including WMU fans, think that they can go through their last 3 games (BG, @NIU, @Toledo) 2-1? That's a lot to ask, especially when the last 2 are on the road.
Yes, I do.
We take it one game at a time. I am not being arrogant and saying that we are going to win them all, just that we are taking it one game at a time with the mind set that we will play hard and smart to win each day that we play.
Who is "we"? Are you Fleck!? Or maybe one of the players!?
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11-11-2015 01:22 PM |
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westernwilly
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 01:22 PM)RedandBlackAttack Wrote: (11-11-2015 01:16 PM)westernwilly Wrote: (11-11-2015 12:40 PM)BarsemaBone2 Wrote: (11-11-2015 10:54 AM)emu steve Wrote: (11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
WMU? With a win at home tonight, they are the favorites. Correct?
On paper, yes, WMU is the favorite because they currently have no conference losses.
HOWEVER, does anyone, including WMU fans, think that they can go through their last 3 games (BG, @NIU, @Toledo) 2-1? That's a lot to ask, especially when the last 2 are on the road.
Yes, I do.
We take it one game at a time. I am not being arrogant and saying that we are going to win them all, just that we are taking it one game at a time with the mind set that we will play hard and smart to win each day that we play.
Who is "we"? Are you Fleck!? Or maybe one of the players!?
You will find out who we are next week.
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11-11-2015 03:19 PM |
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7
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RE: Nick's Picks
Ely sucks
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11-11-2015 04:09 PM |
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Rocket A
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: (11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
I wonder who that was
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11-11-2015 05:35 PM |
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CMUprof
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RE: Nick's Picks
(11-11-2015 05:35 PM)Rocket A Wrote: (11-11-2015 08:04 AM)CMUprof Wrote: (11-11-2015 06:04 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Ely 23/39 with more dropped passes.... 322 yards, 2TD's and 0INT's... The dude was a freaking high school All American and recruited by Alabama. No he hasn't played perfect, but his Rockets are somehow 8-1 and looking at BG for next Tuesdays showdown in Pooville.
Ely started hot but made some bad passes later in the game. He missed a few that had he hit the game isn't close. A pretty loud Toledo fan kept shouting "run the ball" for pretty much he 3rd Q. I'm pretty sure we can't win any possible tiebreakers if there are a bunch of 2 loss teams in the west. I'm pulling for Toledo, someone other than NIU needs to win one of these years.
I wonder who that was
Was that you? During the last drive said fan was yelling something at the press box. Thought it was trash talking until I looked over and realized he was yelling "Don't throw the ball!" towards UT's OC.
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11-11-2015 06:40 PM |
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