Rice Owls football's "magic number" to win the Western division is at 8 games, according to what I believe is the most likely scenario to play out (I'll call this "SCENARIO B")
Rice wins out (4-0)
USM wins their last 2 games (after falling to Rice) (2-0)
FAU wins their last 2 games against MTSU and ODU (2-0)

Of those 8 games, only 3 would be considered upsets.
Only one of those 8 is contested this week (tonight) and it involves our Rice Owls as a favorite on the road at cross-state rival UTEP.

There's another scenario that's been mentioned on this board, (I'll call it "SCENARIO C") that would require powerhouse Louisiana Tech to lose 2 of 3 to finish the season. They might lose to USM, but they will be heavy favorites in their other two games this weekend and on Nov. 21. But we'll keep an eye on their game tomorrow just the same.

Based on ESPN FPI, "SCENARIO B" is about 3 times as likely as "SCENARIO C".

Go Owls, and Eagles, and Other Owls.

I'm not sure I understand. The way we have looked in our 2 conference losses it seems a little strange to be having this conversation, but in your scenario I think you end up with Rice, USM, and LT all having 2 losses and all having 1 loss among the three head-to-head matches. What is the next tie breaker, overall record or record among the West? I don't understand the FAU connections

So Rice beating UTEP is the only outcome needed this weekend to keep both scenarios alive.

Then, if Rice beats USM next weekend, it will likely be the weekend of Nov. 21 that we are definitively eliminated from the conference championship.

No idea what the tie-breaker would be in that scenario, but it's not that far fetched for Rice to beat USM but for USM to beat Tech. It's still within reach, but if USM is any good (if they're to have a chance to best LT) then we must play our best football in the remaining weeks. Been waiting for that for weeks. Doesn't seem to be happening. Hope we see hints of that tonight.

(11-06-2015 06:07 PM)Buho00 Wrote:  No idea what the tie-breaker would be in that scenario, but it's not that far fetched for Rice to beat USM but for USM to beat Tech. It's still within reach, but if USM is any good (if they're to have a chance to best LT) then we must play our best football in the remaining weeks. Been waiting for that for weeks. Doesn't seem to be happening. Hope we see hints of that tonight.

I think it would come down to "BCS" rankings or whatever ranking is used currently. Each of La Tech, USM and Rice would be undefeated against the rest of the West, and hold 1-1 records against East opponents, with Rice and La. Tech losing to WKU and USM losing to Marshall. Not sure what rankings they would use.

It starts tonight. We need to take care of business.

And I will be on a plane during most of the game.

Two-team or multiple team tie for divisional champion
1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head to head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional
opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with
common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cro
ss-divisional opponents in
descending order of
finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest BCS ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative
will be the team that
has not participated in the championship
game most recently.
9. If at any point the tie is broken in a multiple
team tie, the remaining teams will begin the
process again at #2.

(11-06-2015 06:50 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Two-team or multiple team tie for divisional champion
1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head to head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional
opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with
common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cro
ss-divisional opponents in
descending order of
finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest BCS ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative
will be the team that
has not participated in the championship
game most recently.
9. If at any point the tie is broken in a multiple
team tie, the remaining teams will begin the
process again at #2.

This.

Our "scenario B" would advance us by tiebreaker 6 with FAU being highest place cross-divisional team defeated by a tied team (us).

Rice ends the suspense.

But we have9 conference USA championships in 24 months according to some Instagram post...#ricerising

Blah.

Rice goes down at UTEP.

Division is still mathematically possible. magic number is now 7 but that now includes at least three "very unlikely" upsets.
Now need LaTech to lose all of their remaining games. And need USM to lose to ODU.

Losing to UTEP even killed our chances in that 3-way tiebreaker.

Our Magic number is now infinity with LaTech's win today.

Really would like to beat USM next week (duh)