5 isn't even a guarantee the way Rice is playing. MT could lose to Marshall and at FAU. FIU needs a huge upset to get there. UTEP is UTEP.

Would be shocked to see 6.

(11-06-2015 01:09 PM)Saint Greg Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:00 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I would really love to see both these teams go bowling, but I think Rice needs the win more than anybody.

I want to fill all of the bowls. UTEP needs to beat Rice, ODU, UNT. I think Rice still beats UTSA and Charlotte to get eligible. The only problem is a little slip up and we may only fill 5 bowls.

I’m really curious why you have apparently written off Old Dominion in regards to bowl chances while championing UTEP. They have identical records of 3-5 (1-3 in conference).

ODU has wins against Eastern Michigan, Norfolk State and Charlotte, while UTEP has wins against New Mexico State, Incarnate Word and FAU. It’s hard to see a clear favorite there.

ODU’s losses are to NC State, App State, Marshall, FIU, and WKU. UTEP has losses to Arkansas, Texas Tech, UTSA, FIU, and Southern Miss. Not much difference to be found here.

These two teams will meet next week in Norfolk. Until then, I think we are a long way from knowing which one has the best chance (if any) to be bowl eligible at the end of the year. I just would not be so ready to assume that, if one of the two is bowl eligible, it will be UTEP. Matter of fact, I kind of like the Monarchs’ chances – starting with a win over UTSA Saturday!

(11-06-2015 03:23 PM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:09 PM)Saint Greg Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:00 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I would really love to see both these teams go bowling, but I think Rice needs the win more than anybody.

I want to fill all of the bowls. UTEP needs to beat Rice, ODU, UNT. I think Rice still beats UTSA and Charlotte to get eligible. The only problem is a little slip up and we may only fill 5 bowls.

I’m really curious why you have apparently written off Old Dominion in regards to bowl chances while championing UTEP. They have identical records of 3-5 (1-3 in conference).

ODU has wins against Eastern Michigan, Norfolk State and Charlotte, while UTEP has wins against New Mexico State, Incarnate Word and FAU. It’s hard to see a clear favorite there.

ODU’s losses are to NC State, App State, Marshall, FIU, and WKU. UTEP has losses to Arkansas, Texas Tech, UTSA, FIU, and Southern Miss. Not much difference to be found here.

These two teams will meet next week in Norfolk. Until then, I think we are a long way from knowing which one has the best chance (if any) to be bowl eligible at the end of the year. I just would not be so ready to assume that, if one of the two is bowl eligible, it will be UTEP. Matter of fact, I kind of like the Monarchs’ chances – starting with a win over UTSA Saturday!

I don't think he was assuming anything. He said "needs" to beat. That coupled with the fact that UTEP is a Western Division team that he is probably more familiar with. I didn't get anything from any of the post that anyone had written off ODU anymore that any of the other teams on the edge.

(11-06-2015 02:29 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:09 PM)Saint Greg Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:00 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I would really love to see both these teams go bowling, but I think Rice needs the win more than anybody.

I want to fill all of the bowls. UTEP needs to beat Rice, ODU, UNT. I think Rice still beats UTSA and Charlotte to get eligible. The only problem is a little slip up and we may only fill 5 bowls.

Do you hear that Rice? You need to lay down for us.

Seriously, even if we wind up 6-6 I don't think we deserve to go to a bowl game. Even last year with a winning record we got hornswoggled by Utah St. so I can't see us winning with a mediocre record unless we play the worst Sun Belt team and then it's still going to be a struggle.

Conference bowl money.

(11-06-2015 02:29 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:09 PM)Saint Greg Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:00 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I would really love to see both these teams go bowling, but I think Rice needs the win more than anybody.

I want to fill all of the bowls. UTEP needs to beat Rice, ODU, UNT. I think Rice still beats UTSA and Charlotte to get eligible. The only problem is a little slip up and we may only fill 5 bowls.

Do you hear that Rice? You need to lay down for us.

Done. Check in the mail?

(11-06-2015 09:56 AM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Best shot seems to be 6. 7 would be a pleasant surprise, 5 a disappointment.

Also appears to Sun Belt is currently a long shot to fill their back up position in our Arizona Bowl. New bowl could be one that has to take a 5-7 high APR team.

Does anyone know which APR they're going to use? The most recent, the one coming into the season or the 4 year average (which is what they use for punishment, I believe)?

I'm asking because it was reported about a month ago that the NCAA told Coach Kugler that UTEP received a perfect APR this year, but I haven't seen anything official. So, if they use this one, UTEP ought to be at the top if they end up 5-7.

(11-06-2015 11:39 PM)NoodleOwl Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 02:29 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:09 PM)Saint Greg Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 01:00 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I would really love to see both these teams go bowling, but I think Rice needs the win more than anybody.

I want to fill all of the bowls. UTEP needs to beat Rice, ODU, UNT. I think Rice still beats UTSA and Charlotte to get eligible. The only problem is a little slip up and we may only fill 5 bowls.

Do you hear that Rice? You need to lay down for us.

Done. Check in the mail?

Yes, but don't cash it yet. Oh, and thanks. We made it look like it was legit.

The NCAA Postseason Bowl Handbook lists the bowl eligibility rules and the extra rules for non-qualified 5-7 teams if there are not enough qualified teams.

5. An institution that finished its season with a minimum of five wins and a maximum of seven losses but achieved a top-five Academic Progress Rate in the Football Bowl Subdivision for the most recent reporting year.

After week 10 has played out, here is where we are...

Lets start with the definite teams...

WKU
Marshall
La Tech
USM

Now onto the probables...

MTSU - Miracle win over Marshall. We have FAU, UNT, and UTSA left on the schedule. It all starts with FAU. If we win down there and they are tough whenever we play them, it sets up a possible win out to go 7-5 or 6-6 and get the bowl bid. - probable

Rice - 4-5 and facing USM but have UTSA and Charlotte left as well. 6-6 is there unless they have another meltdown. MTSU fans know what that feels like. (look up last year) - probable


Now here are the "The Coin Flips"...

ODU - UTEP and FAU

UTEP - ODU and UNT - I'm picking UTEP to win that battle but it could be a double cancel if ODU wins and loses to FAU. Then they'll both will have to wait til the end of the season to see if they get a chance.


Not probable...

FIU - They are 5-5 with Marshall and WKU left. Uh oh. The FAU loss has sealed their fate but if they did beat Marshall, they are in. - not probable

So at the end of the day, we're at 6 to maybe 7 without having to dip into the 5-7's which we will have plenty of those it seems. Lots of football left.

So we currently have 4 teams with 6+ wins (WKU, HERD, LaTech, USM), 4 teams with 7+ losses (UTSA, UNT, FAU, UNC-C) and a handful of 5 loss teams (MTSU, FIU, ODU, UTEP, Rice).

- MTSU has the easiest path to 6+ wins, with 3 from the 7+ loss group left on the schedule they need to take at least 2 of 3. Not saying these guys will simply hand the W to the raiders but MTSU should get to 6+ and bowl eligible

- Rice, on paper, has possibly the 2nd easiest path to 6 wins. With 2 from the 7+ loss group and the West #2 at home. USM seems to be on a roll and will be favored to win this one. The 49ers are on an 8 game skid and while they have improved each game, they simply do not have the size and depth to stop Rice at home. UTSA seems to be looking to next season already. Rice should get to bowl eligibility.

- ODU also needs 2 of 3 but that 3 includes only 1 team from from 7+ loss group. Next game maybe an elimination game with UTEP as they face a resurgent USM on the road the following week. Get pass UTEP and the Monarchs can start thinking about storming the field for the home finale and bowl eligibility

- UTEP's story is the same as ODU's. They need 2 of 3, with only 1 team from from 7+ loss group and the West #1 LaTech. UTEP gets LaTech at home but should be home 'dogs for this game which means a must-win against ODU and in Denton. Whoever wins next week, has a great shot at post season play.

- FIU has the toughest path to 6 wins, even though we are at 5 wins now, we have 2 games left against the East #1 & #2. Homer in me still hopes for an upset of one of these guys but our performance so far doesn't leave me with much expectations of this happening. Panthers miss out on a bowl game and spend the Christmas talking about the coulda-woulda on the UMASS and FAU losses.