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I think I will keep it pretty simple this week. I suspect the defense will play good enough against the Road Runners to keep us in the game, and what it will come down to is: Will the offense score enough points to give the Monarchs the victory?

This week’s over / under:

The number of points the Monarchs will score: 21

This is a winnable game, but it will be a tough win. If you look at the stats, ODU and UTSA are really very similar, with the Runners having a slight edge in almost all categories. However, the fact that these stats are close may well be misleading, as the Runners played what was clearly the toughest OOC schedule in the conference with losses to Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Colorado State. They also have lost to the two West Division leaders, LA Tech and Southern Miss.

So, they are favored, and rightfully so. They have the home field advantage. This is also their homecoming game, and you have to believe they will be motivated coming off a loss to North Texas, a game I am sure they expected to win.

All this said, I think I will go with the over. I have no doubt that we will have to score more than 21 in order to win, and I believe we will be good for 28 to 35 points with David Washington having a solid performance and Lawry going for something around 120-130 yards. If the offense can do that, and we have no turnovers, I think we win this one.

Definitely over, way over

Over

OVER.

double that spread

Washington opens up on them. This opens up running lanes for Lawry. We finally see the offensive machine chug along nicely. Score > 40.

Would put my bank account on the OVER

(11-04-2015 08:04 PM)Old Dominion Wrote:  Definitely over, way over

I love your outlook, but I just don't see us scoring "way over" 21 points. Here are the points scored on the Runners in the seven games they have lost.

Arizona 42
Kansas State 30
Oklahoma State 69
Colorado State 33
Louisiana Tech 34
Southern Miss 32
North Texas 30

Only two teams have scored more than 34 points on the Runners -- Arizona and Oklahoma State. Kansas State didn't. Colorado State didn't. La Tech didn't. Southern Miss didn't.

I see no way we score 40 or more points. I think we wind up scoring 24-28 points in this game, with an outside chance of going over 30.

(11-05-2015 09:13 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 08:04 PM)Old Dominion Wrote:  Definitely over, way over

I love your outlook, but I just don't see us scoring "way over" 21 points. Here are the points scored on the Runners in the seven games they have lost.

Arizona 42
Kansas State 30
Oklahoma State 69
Colorado State 33
Louisiana Tech 34
Southern Miss 32
North Texas 30

Only two teams have scored more than 34 points on the Runners -- Arizona and Oklahoma State. Kansas State didn't. Colorado State didn't. La Tech didn't. Southern Miss didn't.

I see no way we score 40 or more points. I think we wind up scoring 24-28 points in this game, with an outside chance of going over 30.

If North Texas scored 30 don't see why we can't score 34.

Definitely Over