Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.


So then the solution is rather than saying the CCG winner from each P4 gets into the game, that each P4 has one guaranteed slot (with an exception for Notre Dame).

But in that case, why even play the CCG?


So maybe the XII has it right, all along. Except that the conferences make too much money playing a CCG. So then maybe you say that the top two ranked teams play in the CCG, regardless if they've played each other, regardless if they're in the same division or regardless if there are divisions at all.


So who knows...

This just plays into the deregulation argument. If/when it is passed, conferences can set up their division (or go division less) and decide who get to play in the CCG. That way you can have the two strongest teams play each other with a trip to the final 4 as a reward for the winner. The problem could be if you have a rematch in the CCG. But every system has it issues.

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.


So then the solution is rather than saying the CCG winner from each P4 gets into the game, that each P4 has one guaranteed slot (with an exception for Notre Dame).

But in that case, why even play the CCG?


So maybe the XII has it right, all along. Except that the conferences make too much money playing a CCG. So then maybe you say that the top two ranked teams play in the CCG, regardless if they've played each other, regardless if they're in the same division or regardless if there are divisions at all.


So who knows...

Wasn't the whole idea of 12 team, 2 division conferences with a CCG solely based on the idea of getting ESPN to fork over more TV money?

They weren't set up because of the playoffs or the Committee.

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.

Except for the fact that this team would have beaten "the best". In the scenario given, he is saying that it would be a disaster for Pitt to beat Clemson in the CCG. For the ACC, maybe. But if Pitt can beat Clemson, is Clemson really CFP worthy? At what point do you dial back the competition in order to avoid your "top" teams from losing? If they are TRULY a top 4 team, they won't lose to Pitt in the CCG.

(11-04-2015 12:24 PM)TerpsNPhoenix Wrote:  This just plays into the deregulation argument. If/when it is passed, conferences can set up their division (or go division less) and decide who get to play in the CCG. That way you can have the two strongest teams play each other with a trip to the final 4 as a reward for the winner. The problem could be if you have a rematch in the CCG. But every system has it issues.

As much as I may not agree with it, this would seem to be the way to go if you want the CCG's to be true play-in games for the CFP: gotta have the conference's two best ranked in the CFP, regardless who they've played in the regular season.


In such a case, they should force each P4 conference to get rid of divisions and play the same number of P4 games (conf + non-conf) in the regular season. Then just take the top two ranked teams for the CFP, regardless if they've already played.

And force it to be neutral site, as well. None of this "home site at the higher ranked team" garbage.

(11-04-2015 12:35 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.


So then the solution is rather than saying the CCG winner from each P4 gets into the game, that each P4 has one guaranteed slot (with an exception for Notre Dame).

But in that case, why even play the CCG?


So maybe the XII has it right, all along. Except that the conferences make too much money playing a CCG. So then maybe you say that the top two ranked teams play in the CCG, regardless if they've played each other, regardless if they're in the same division or regardless if there are divisions at all.


So who knows...

Wasn't the whole idea of 12 team, 2 division conferences with a CCG solely based on the idea of getting ESPN to fork over more TV money?

They weren't set up because of the playoffs or the Committee.

CCG's were allowed because a conference grew larger than what a round-robin schedule could cover with a reasonable number of conference games.

The TV money was a bonus, but could now be the driving factor for keeping them.

(11-04-2015 01:14 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.

Except for the fact that this team would have beaten "the best". In the scenario given, he is saying that it would be a disaster for Pitt to beat Clemson in the CCG. For the ACC, maybe. But if Pitt can beat Clemson, is Clemson really CFP worthy? At what point do you dial back the competition in order to avoid your "top" teams from losing? If they are TRULY a top 4 team, they won't lose to Pitt in the CCG.

You have a valid counter-point.


However, I think the point is that the CFP doesn't want a team like Pitt to "sneak in" to the CFP with only having to beat one team, on one night.


The overall point being that "hey, any decent team and rise up and beat any other decent team on a given night, at a neutral site --- but why should a team with 3 losses get to go to the national playoff just because it got lucky one time??"


And so if that is the case, then maybe we can't get away from the selection committee after all.

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.

I would argue the opposite - that WINNING something (i.e. a conference or a conf champ game) should be a pre-requisite to being a national champ.

Take baseball this year -

The Royals obviously have an argument w/the best record in the American League.

Had a committee picked a 4 team playoff, it would have been the Royals, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Pirates/Cubs. NOT THE METS.

SO what happened? The Mets pulled it out and won their ALDS and ALCS series. I'd argue that pushes them past the reg. season champs- by winning something.

So Alabama? Win your damn conference if you wanna be national champ.

(11-04-2015 02:53 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.

I would argue the opposite - that WINNING something (i.e. a conference or a conf champ game) should be a pre-requisite to being a national champ.

Take baseball this year -

The Royals obviously have an argument w/the best record in the American League.

Had a committee picked a 4 team playoff, it would have been the Royals, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Pirates/Cubs. NOT THE METS.

SO what happened? The Mets pulled it out and won their ALDS and ALCS series. I'd argue that pushes them past the reg. season champs- by winning something.

So Alabama? Win your damn conference if you wanna be national champ.

I know your aware the Mets are in the NL

Sadly, the institutions that control things (TV networks, some P5 conferences, a few select schools, media, etc) always demand a system they can artificially rig so they can maximize their profit.

It will NEVER be a fair system that uses consistent logic.

It is only about $$$ at the end of the day.

(11-04-2015 02:53 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 11:39 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Decent read:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


Here's the one thing that stood out to me, and it's something I didn't realize until now:

Quote:This scenario is the very reason the CFP didn't want automatic qualifiers in the playoff, because a conference champion isn't always one of the best teams in the country.

I feel dumb, because it's such an obvious point and such an easy argument against automatically giving each CCG winner a spot in the CFP.

I would argue the opposite - that WINNING something (i.e. a conference or a conf champ game) should be a pre-requisite to being a national champ.

Take baseball this year -

The Royals obviously have an argument w/the best record in the American League.

Had a committee picked a 4 team playoff, it would have been the Royals, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Pirates/Cubs. NOT THE METS.

SO what happened? The Mets pulled it out and won their ALDS and ALCS series. I'd argue that pushes them past the reg. season champs- by winning something.

So Alabama? Win your damn conference if you wanna be national champ.

Well you can still make it so that the P4 CCG's are the play-in games.

You just have to make it so that the top two highest ranked teams in the conference play in the game, rather than winners of divisions where each division team plays every other division team.

I don't see a scenario where the SEC is left out this year. They are the only safe conference. The Big 10 is also looking good, but a few more reasonable scenarios where they get left out. Hatd to see the SEC left out at this point.

But even so--if you take the two "highest ranked" teams from one conference, it might be that the highest ranked team is #7 and the second is #19...and the #19 wins the CCG. Now, you have a team in the playoff which is--at best--#12 in the country.

Whatever happens this year with the Football Four, it'll give us new scenarios to consider. Last year's "all four conference front-runners win CCGs and the Big 12's top teams win too" was just too perfect in some ways.

It's only been since 2011 that we've even had 4 of the 5 conferences with championship games! This whole thing doesn't have a lot of samples to go on...

(11-04-2015 07:45 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I don't see a scenario where the SEC is left out this year. They are the only safe conference. The Big 10 is also looking good, but a few more reasonable scenarios where they get left out. Hatd to see the SEC left out at this point.

I just don't see any two loss team being safe, even from the SEC. The only exception would be is if there are no undefeated or one loss teams. The real question is can the Big 10 or Big 12 sneak two teams in with 0-1 losses if the SEC, Pac 12, and Notre Dame produce no such teams.

(11-04-2015 02:13 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  ...I think the point is that the CFP doesn't want a team like Pitt to "sneak in" to the CFP with only having to beat one team, on one night.

Yeah, good thing CFP doesn't do it anything like the NFL... I mean, those 2011 New York Giants (9-7 regular season) just had NO business being in the playoffs that year! (BTW, they won it all, beating the New England Patriots in the Superbowl).

IMO, if a team wins a P5 conference - even if it suffered a loss or three earlier in the season - that team should be in the playoffs. If they don't belong, they'll get an early exit... but if they DO...

(11-04-2015 07:58 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  But even so--if you take the two "highest ranked" teams from one conference, it might be that the highest ranked team is #7 and the second is #19...and the #19 wins the CCG. Now, you have a team in the playoff which is--at best--#12 in the country.

Whatever happens this year with the Football Four, it'll give us new scenarios to consider. Last year's "all four conference front-runners win CCGs and the Big 12's top teams win too" was just too perfect in some ways.

It's only been since 2011 that we've even had 4 of the 5 conferences with championship games! This whole thing doesn't have a lot of samples to go on...

That is true, and a good point.

Maybe we can't get to a point where the winners of the CCG are automatically in the CFP.

But it could still be said that the highest ranked team in each P4 conference, regardless if they win or lose the CCG, will automatically be given a CFP bid.


Now you could come back and say, what if a conference is really bad one year and its highest ranked team is in the #20's?

But at that point, that's where I personally would draw a line and say "no, you have to keep it at equal representation ... that's just the breaks for one year and shouldn't happen often".

(11-04-2015 09:34 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 02:13 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  ...I think the point is that the CFP doesn't want a team like Pitt to "sneak in" to the CFP with only having to beat one team, on one night.

Yeah, good thing CFP doesn't do it anything like the NFL... I mean, those 2011 New York Giants (9-7 regular season) just had NO business being in the playoffs that year! (BTW, they won it all, beating the New England Patriots in the Superbowl).

IMO, if a team wins a P5 conference - even if it suffered a loss or three earlier in the season - that team should be in the playoffs. If they don't belong, they'll get an early exit... but if they DO...

Sure, there probably will be a few teams every year that were left out of the CFP that could win it.

That's what we have to live with, when the playoff can only be four teams.

(11-04-2015 07:45 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I don't see a scenario where the SEC is left out this year. They are the only safe conference. The Big 10 is also looking good, but a few more reasonable scenarios where they get left out. Hatd to see the SEC left out at this point.

Ole Miss wins out an ends up with wins against LSU, Alabama and Miss State (whom is still ranked). They go to the SEC Championship game against Florida whom could also be a two loss team if they lose to Florida State the week previous to the SEC CCG.

That is the SEC nightmare scenario.

(11-04-2015 09:34 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 02:13 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  ...I think the point is that the CFP doesn't want a team like Pitt to "sneak in" to the CFP with only having to beat one team, on one night.

Yeah, good thing CFP doesn't do it anything like the NFL... I mean, those 2011 New York Giants (9-7 regular season) just had NO business being in the playoffs that year! (BTW, they won it all, beating the New England Patriots in the Superbowl).

IMO, if a team wins a P5 conference - even if it suffered a loss or three earlier in the season - that team should be in the playoffs. If they don't belong, they'll get an early exit... but if they DO...

The Giants winning it all seriously devalued the regular season that year. The Presidents running the NCAA will never allow that to happen in college football.

Here's an update of this, posted yesterday:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...ft-playoff


I really think Heather Dinich lives in the past. She's talking about Baylor being the XII champ and about OK St going undefeated. Not realistic, to me.


But I will say that the ultimate doomsday scenario for the committee, on paper, at first glance, is to have four P5 champs with 1-loss, a 2-loss PAC champ and a 1-loss Notre Dame.