(11-03-2015 11:37 PM)UTOWL94 Wrote: We are 8 games into the season with 4 to go and things have not gone as expected. Predictions had us going with a 10-2 record and competing for the CUSA championship. While we have a mathematically outside chance at winning our division then playing for the conference championship, the reality is that it will not happen. It would call for us to beat a team with a winning record which history shows that has not been easy. So far we have lost 4 games, three of them to teams with winning records: Baylor 7-0, Western Kentucky 7-2, La Tech 6-3. We lost to a pretty bad Longhorns team that currently sits at 3-5. The stat that jumps out on all of our four losses is that none of the games have been close. We were not competitive in any of the games.
We have beaten four teams (Wagner 0-8, North Texas 1-7, FAU 2-6, Army 2-6) combined records of 5-27. Army and FAU were won by a combined 8 points.
Based on this and on the eye test, the grade after the third quarter results is a D-. It was an F however we will give credit for the 4-4 record.
Offense - (D-) Offense has not looked good at all. Passing game has been below average, we have missed wide open receivers, DJ has looked like he has regressed from what we saw last year or perhaps he benefited from Taylor/Hull/Parks(healthy) or perhaps the O-line was much better last year. IMO I think our passing game benefited last year from conservative play calling and an awesome running game (Davis/Dillard). This year our running game has been average but has not really dominated a game. Prediction - Edmondson fired.
Defense (F) - we cannot stop the pass, cannot stop the run, turnovers are down (we have two interceptions through 8 games). Prediction-Thurmond retires.
Special teams (C-) - the return team with Walter/Stewart has been good. Probably the bright spot this year. However our kicking teams have struggled.
Last year we won 7 regular season games, those teams had a combined record of 36-63. We lost five games and those teams had a combined record of 44-22. The obvious we beat the really bad teams, lose to average to good teams. Based on this stat my prediction should be pretty accurate:
Win against UTEP 3-5
Lose against Southern Miss 6-3
Win against UTSA 1-7
Win against Charlotte 2-7
Final record 7-5 same as last year however this year we would not have beaten a team with a winning record unless we beat Southern Miss. We get invited to the New Mexico Bowl against New Mexico (4-4) or San Jose St. (4-4).
Prediction - coaching changes, DB is gone after the bowl loss. JK will not put up with a football program that thrives and brags about 7-5 seasons and beating teams with losing records.
Let it rain, Let it rain!
First of all apologies, I titled the thread 3/4 when it was really 2/3 however Friday nights game, I can now say we are three-fourths of the season complete.
As far as the game, UNBELIEVABLE. I did not see that coming. Things are worst than what I predicted. We are now losing to the really bad teams. A couple of you questioned my grade of D- for the offense. REALLY??? After Friday's game, it has become an F. We threw for 230 yards against the #118 passing defense with a fifth year senior and a potential NFL player in Parks. Is it talent or coaching? Simple answer- coaching and play calling. UTEP has been giving up 170 yards rushing per game. We gained 90 yet we have four good running backs. Is it talent or coaching? Simple answer - coaching. Bailiff needs to get rid of his OC and DC if he plans on having a chance of keeping his job.
The defense had an F so it could not have gotten worse but it did. We made the backups look like Fournette and Henry in the backfield. Is it coaching or talent? Simple answer - coaching.
With regards to the wonderful marketing excuse, that we're a young team, no one is buying it. UTEP had some ridiculous number of starters out yet all they did was punch us in the gut and walked away with a W.
With regards to the players quitting, I don't think the kids would do that however I don't think they're on the same page with the coaches. They lack motivation and is understandable when you see few to no adjustments being made by the coaches. The UTEP tight end was destroying us yet on the last drive to kick a field goal, we never changed our defense. It has to be taking a toll on the players.
With regards to coaching changes, you have to be delusional or are to emotionally tied to our current head coach to disagree. Our team has regressed and next year our schedule will be tougher, take a peek.
Stanford & Baylor(home) - losses
Army on the road - toss up, however after what they did this year to us, we can lean on the loss side.
PV(home) - win
Conference
@ La Tech - loss
@ So Miss - loss
North Texas (Home) - win
UTEP(home) - toss up
UTSA(home) - win
These are the teams I think we will face.
@ Middle Tenn - loss
Marshall (home) - toss up
@ ODU - loss
3 wins, 6 losses, 3 toss up......CHANGE IS REQUIRED.