This is a continuation of the thread started week 8 and week 9.

The committee has spoken. After reviewing the first week's poll, a couple of items stick out:

1. There are 3 AAC teams in the CFP top 25. Memphis plays the other two, and could possibly play Temple twice. That is going to seriously help our case, because the committee is impressed with those teams.

2. It appears that a B12 team is going to need to go undefeated in order to get a spot in front of us. Baylor and TCU are at #6 and #8, and the Oklahomas are at #14 and #15. So Memphis is ahead of an undefeated and 1 loss B12 team, and we will play one additional game than they do if we go undefeated. Thats bad news for the B12.

3. We have two 1 loss Pac teams directly in front of us. Memphis plays a very good Navy team this week. Utah and Stanford play teams who are at or below .500. If all 3 teams win, it will be interesting to see if Memphis moves past those two, because that could make it difficult for a 1 loss Pac team to take a spot away from us.

4. The ACC only has two teams in the top 25. And Florida St starts off well behind Memphis. If Florida St wins out, I'm not sure the tea leaves say they will pass us up. They will get a boost for beating Clemson, but our next 3 opponents are pretty stout as well.


Below are the P5 Conference Divisions with those teams that still have fewer than 2 losses. We'll keep the format the same for now, but its clear after tonite that some of these conferences may have difficulty taking a playoff spot from an undefeated Memphis even if they only have one loss. The PAC, B12, and ACC are certainly at danger if certain teams are their champions and have a loss.

Games in green have been played, and are good for our chances. Games in red means the team we wanted to win didnt, but it doesnt necessarily mean game over. It was just an opportunity missed.

*** P5 Divisions-Teams With Zero Or 1 Loss ***
Team's Losses in Parenthesis

ACC
Atlantic Clemson(0) / Florida St(1)
Coastal UNC(1)

B10
East Michigan St(0) / Ohio St (0)
West Iowa(0)

B12
*The B12 does not have divisions.
Baylor(0) / TCU(1) / Ok St(0) / Oklahoma(1)

PAC
North Stanford( 1 )
South Utah(1)

SEC
East Florida(1)
West LSU(0) / Alabama(1)

Independent
Notre Dame(1)


Relevant Week 10 Games

#13 Memphis vs Navy
The committee has spoken. Its time to cut out the stupid penalties, and knock a really good team out early.

NIU Vs #24 Toledo
No implications for a playoff spot, but a Toledo loss virtually guarantees the Peach bowl to an AAC team. **Played Tuesday Night**

Duke vs UNC
Neither are ranked, but a UNC loss would completely shut out the ACC Coastal division. The committee seems to think they are already shut out.


#6 Baylor vs Kansas St
This is likely an elimination game for Baylor. The committee ranked them high enough to appreciate how they have demolished other teams. They ranked them low enough to let them know that when the demolishing stops, the ranking drops.
** I colored this game orange, because even though Baylor won, they didnt win convincingly, and KState nearly tied the game at the end. KState is not a great team, so a lower scoring close game should see Baylor drop in the rankings.


#22 Temple vs SMU
We need Temple to win. A good butt whooping would be even better.

#10 Florida vs Vanderbilt
An elimination game for Florida.
Florida held on to win by two, but that was such a horrible showing against a team that Houston destroyed 34-0 that Florida has to fall in the polls.

#5 Notre Dame vs Pitt
This may be the only time in my I am rooting for Pitt. An elimination game for ND, which would be great, because they could then win out and eliminate the PAC later.

#21 Northwestern vs Penn St
A Penn St win would bolster Temples resume, which helps us.

#11 Stanford vs Colorado
An elimination game for Stanford, and a serious blow to the Pac if it occurs.

#18 Ole Miss vs Arkansas
The more Ole Miss wins, the more everyone struggles to reconcile Memphis as anything other than a top team.

#16 Florida St vs #1 Clemson
One of the games of the week right here. A Florida St win could place the ACC permanently behind an undefeated Memphis. This is a knockout game for Florida St, but we would rather Florida St win this one.

#8 TCU vs #14 Oklahoma St
Kiss one of them goodbye, likely for good. The only bad thing about this game is that an Ok St win likely sees them jump us in the poll. I've gone ahead and colored this game green, because either losing is good.

#9 Iowa vs Indiana
We need Iowa to start losing.

#25 Houston vs Cincinatti
Houston needs to win it. A big win is even better.

#7 Michigan St vs Nebraska
If Michigan St loses, it wont be the end of the world, but it puts a dent in the B10 which has been teflon to this point.

#15 Oklahoma vs Iowa St
An elimination game for Oklahoma. They may not be able to pass an undefeated Memphis anyway, since they play one fewer games.

#12 Utah vs Washington
An elimination game for Utah, and another game that can throw the Pac into complete turmoil.

#19 Tamu vs Auburn
Memphis has a transitive win over Tamu, so we want them to keep on winning.

#3 Ohio St vs Minnesota
This game shouldnt be interesting, but just might be.

#2 LSU vs #4 Alabama
I'm not sure this game matters, but LSU has more chances to lose later, so maybe an Alabama loss will help us get higher in the polls immediately.

Sweet summary. Thanks for giving us good guidance on who to root for. Will make for a fun Saturday; only of course if we win our game.

Iowa will eventually lose in the conference championship game, assuming they win out the regular season.

"Just win, baby!" Al Davis.

Thanks for keeping track of all the possible scenarios and I feel great about our chances. Unfortunately though, I believe if Florida State beats Clemson, the #1 team, they will jump us in the polls along with a few other teams.

Washington and Minnesota have the goods to win if they play well. Sure am hoping.

Nice Job...

I will say we need LSU to beat Bama if we are counting on Ole Miss winning out...They will take care of LSU and I think that will kill LSUs chances losing that late and not winning the conference. As we can see Bama is going to make it in with 1 loss.

(11-03-2015 10:19 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  Nice Job...

I will say we need LSU to beat Bama if we are counting on Ole Miss winning out...They will take care of LSU and I think that will kill LSUs chances losing that late and not winning the conference. As we can see Bama is going to make it in with 1 loss.

I agree...we want Ole Miss to win out and LSU to beat Bama. If Ole Miss can get to the SEC title game can they beat there likely opponent Florida?

Was listening to Mike and Mike this morning.Very complimentary of Memphis.Said if Memphis wins out will be almost impossible to be in the final four.One said he wished they would have a final 8 which they thought Memphis would do if they won out.The other didnt like the maybe going to 8 teams but he said if Memphis was to be left out and didnt make it,then he could see the argument to expand to 8 teams.Said it would be a shame to those guys to win every game and not make it.Also said they think Clemson is in.LSU-Alabama winner is in.Ohio St is in if they take care of business.If not winner of Notre Dame -Stanford would be in and then the team that comes out of the Big 12.Said it would have to be some major scenarios for Memphis to get in.Said we are taught to just go out and play and win and things work out but Memphis which would be a shame would get left out.Said if Memphis beats Houston,that Houston has the weakest schedule thus far as any of the teams,below Baylor and would be a bad thing to have to play Temple twice ,if that were to happen.Said if Memphis beats them the first game,knocks Temple out of the rankings which will deminish the second game.Pretty well most football fans know all of this already but Mike and Mike were really behind Memphis.

Great post. I'll sticky this for Saturday's all day football marathon at the Chi-TownTiger man cave.

Would it help if Florida lost one of their remaining games, but still win the East, then lose to Ole Miss in the SEC Championship?

(11-04-2015 10:47 AM)jammaster Wrote:  Would it help if Florida lost one of their remaining games, but still win the East, then lose to Ole Miss in the SEC Championship?

If Florida loses another SEC game, but beats Florida St, and Florida St wins out, that would be very good. That would literally block the ACC and SEC together.

Just a reminder that tonite (Thursday) is the Baylor / Kansas St game on FS1 at 6:30pm central.

Also, the Temple / SMU game is on Friday night on ESPN2 at 7pm central.

(11-03-2015 10:32 PM)sherekhan Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 10:19 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  Nice Job...

I will say we need LSU to beat Bama if we are counting on Ole Miss winning out...They will take care of LSU and I think that will kill LSUs chances losing that late and not winning the conference. As we can see Bama is going to make it in with 1 loss.

I agree...we want Ole Miss to win out and LSU to beat Bama. If Ole Miss can get to the SEC title game can they beat there likely opponent Florida?

I concur completely.

Kansas St nearly pulled an upset, but the game ran out while they were in the red zone. Baylor won 31-24, but that may be enough damage for the committee to drop Baylor back some, especially after everyone believes they were overranked this past week.

I dont think this Baylor team will be able to run the table.

(11-05-2015 11:00 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Kansas St nearly pulled an upset, but the game ran out while they were in the red zone. Baylor won 31-24, but that may be enough damage for the committee to drop Baylor back some, especially after everyone believes they were overranked this past week.

I dont think this Baylor team will be able to run the table.

Kansas State is P5...They will not fall.

For those watching the Memphis basketball game, Temple won against SMU tonite by 20. However, that score doesnt represent this game at all. It was a 5 point game with 3:30 left in the 4th. SMU is going to be a tough game.

Awesome thread, thanks for doing this.

I'm not sure I agree with you guys about the Bama game. I guess I should say, I did agree with you but this writer for SI has kinda changed my mimd. Here's what he said in a piece about wanting as much upheaval in the playoffs as possible:

"Alabama beats LSU, Ole Miss beats Arkansas, Memphis beats Navy

The results of the season thus far have linked the pursuit of a Group of Five team in the playoff with the elimination of the SEC. A Crimson Tide victory over the Tigers serves both causes. First, it leaves the SEC with no unbeaten teams. It also puts Ole Miss in prime position to win the SEC West—if the Rebels beat the Razorbacks—due to Ole Miss’s triumph over Alabama. If the Rebels win out, including their Nov. 21 date with LSU, they will earn the West Division’s berth in the conference title game. Should Ole Miss win that, it’d be the clear top choice from the SEC to make the playoff. However, it’d still have two losses, including one to a potentially undefeated AAC champion Memphis squad. The playoff committee would seemingly have to put the Tigers in the playoff before it could choose the Rebels."

I think he might be right.

Edited for link:
http://www.si.com/college-football/2015/...de-week-10