If TCU wins out they should be in. Tall order with @OSU, @OU and Baylor left to go but no one could say the Frogs didn't earn it

(11-03-2015 08:40 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 backloaded its schedule.

... which is not the best approach, IMO.

I still say the SEC plays the media/public opinion game the right way by trying to give every contender a challenging conference game in September. It gives the winner credibility and gives the loser time to work its way back up in the rankings, as Alabama has. Whereas if a team plays a very soft schedule before Halloween and then plays its first legit opponent in November and loses, the media consensus is that they were "exposed" or even "overrated".

(11-03-2015 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) Clemson
2) LSU
3) Ohio State
4) Alabama

5) Notre Dame
6) Baylor

Top G5 ... Memphis #13

Committee definitely looking at SOS and how/where a team lost, not just record.

Committee definitely looking at the name on the jersey. How else do you explain Ohio St. at #3 while Iowa is way down at #9? Ohio St.'s schedule has been weak and they haven't been particularly impressive. At the same time Baylor has been blowing weak opponents away and is down at #6.

(11-04-2015 01:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) Clemson
2) LSU
3) Ohio State
4) Alabama

5) Notre Dame
6) Baylor

Top G5 ... Memphis #13

Committee definitely looking at SOS and how/where a team lost, not just record.

Committee definitely looking at the name on the jersey. How else do you explain Ohio St. at #3 while Iowa is way down at #9? Ohio St.'s schedule has been weak and they haven't been particularly impressive. At the same time Baylor has been blowing weak opponents away and is down at #6.

Ohio St's schedule is 37 spots higher right now vs Baylor.... Also- the difference in SOS between Ohio St and Iowa right now- only 9 spots. not that big of a deal there...

as í've said all along- the committee doesn't want to reward Baylor and their absolute garbage of OOC scheduling. You schedule like a *****, you are going to get penalized. PERIOD.

(11-03-2015 08:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 08:17 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Eventually, the Big 12 will get the hint. If a 1 loss Notre Dame makes the playoff over an undefeated Big 12, just bite the bullet.

That won't happen. The Big 12 teams have huge games coming up, enough to propel them past Notre Dame.

There is a 100% chance that an unbeaten Big 12 team makes the playoffs.

It will be interesting to see how important a conference championship is this year if Alabama is 11-1 but behind Ole Miss in the SEC West. Will that suddenly be lightly weighted?

(11-04-2015 01:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how important a conference championship is this year if Alabama is 11-1 but behind Ole Miss in the SEC West. Will that suddenly be lightly weighted?

IMO, a non-champ won't be selected over a P5 conference champ unless they have fewer losses than that champ.

What would be up for grabs though is: 11-1 Alabama or 11-1 Notre Dame? 11-1 Alabama or 13-0 Memphis? I don't know if we can predict how the committee would answer those questions.

(11-04-2015 01:37 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 01:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how important a conference championship is this year if Alabama is 11-1 but behind Ole Miss in the SEC West. Will that suddenly be lightly weighted?

IMO, a non-champ won't be selected over a P5 conference champ unless they have fewer losses than that champ.

What would be up for grabs though is: 11-1 Alabama or 11-1 Notre Dame? 11-1 Alabama or 13-0 Memphis? I don't know if we can predict how the committee would answer those questions.

Alabama would be 11-1 while Ole Miss would be 11-2. Maybe there would be an unbeaten Big 12 team. Would Alabama be put over those schools?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...f-rankings

Heather Dinrich:

If we learned anything from the first CFP ranking on Tuesday, it was this: You can't pin the selection committee down on any one, single criteria. Strength of schedule? Check. Eye test? Check. Results against common opponents? Check. Yet it was impossible to tell what mattered the most (maybe eye test?) and if it was applied consistently across the ranking in the short amount of time Long had to explain it.

For Alabama, three wins over teams with records better than .500 was the big selling point -- but undefeated Iowa also had three wins against teams with records better than .500.

Answer: eye test.

"Their offense is something we look at closely," Long said of the Hawkeyes. "I think there's a question in the room of how strong their offense is. I think their defense has been consistent, but it's difficult to judge based on the quality of teams they've played at this point in some respects."

Undefeated TCU and Baylor clearly have no problem scoring points, but the defenses they have faced could also be called into question. The first ranking was a reminder of just how ambiguous and subjective this fledgling system is -- something that is going to take some getting used to.

Many argue that these rankings don't matter, and that there should be only one top 25 revealed at the end of the season, but this format allows fans, coaches and media to gain insight into how the committee thinks and understand the reasons behind their decisions and what matters to them. It's only valuable, though, when it's easy to understand.

SO: to summarize-there's no logic or rhyme or reason to it. They are no more credible than AP Pollsters.

(11-04-2015 01:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 01:37 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 01:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how important a conference championship is this year if Alabama is 11-1 but behind Ole Miss in the SEC West. Will that suddenly be lightly weighted?

IMO, a non-champ won't be selected over a P5 conference champ unless they have fewer losses than that champ.

What would be up for grabs though is: 11-1 Alabama or 11-1 Notre Dame? 11-1 Alabama or 13-0 Memphis? I don't know if we can predict how the committee would answer those questions.

Alabama would be 11-1 while Ole Miss would be 11-2. Maybe there would be an unbeaten Big 12 team. Would Alabama be put over those schools?

Interesting, since this has been a much better AAC from top to almost bottom this year. Memphis, Houston, Temple, Cincinnati are schools that have shown a lot of strength that rival a lot of P5 schools . I would hate to be on that committee and tell any one or two of those schools You listed that I highlighted, They are out .

(11-04-2015 01:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...f-rankings

Heather Dinrich:

If we learned anything from the first CFP ranking on Tuesday, it was this: You can't pin the selection committee down on any one, single criteria. Strength of schedule? Check. Eye test? Check. Results against common opponents? Check. Yet it was impossible to tell what mattered the most (maybe eye test?) and if it was applied consistently across the ranking in the short amount of time Long had to explain it.

For Alabama, three wins over teams with records better than .500 was the big selling point -- but undefeated Iowa also had three wins against teams with records better than .500.

Answer: eye test.

"Their offense is something we look at closely," Long said of the Hawkeyes. "I think there's a question in the room of how strong their offense is. I think their defense has been consistent, but it's difficult to judge based on the quality of teams they've played at this point in some respects."

Undefeated TCU and Baylor clearly have no problem scoring points, but the defenses they have faced could also be called into question. The first ranking was a reminder of just how ambiguous and subjective this fledgling system is -- something that is going to take some getting used to.

Many argue that these rankings don't matter, and that there should be only one top 25 revealed at the end of the season, but this format allows fans, coaches and media to gain insight into how the committee thinks and understand the reasons behind their decisions and what matters to them. It's only valuable, though, when it's easy to understand.

SO: to summarize-there's no logic or rhyme or reason to it. They are no more credible than AP Pollsters.

Well, if so, same as it ever was.

This is the playoff system that people were clamoring for. They got it.

We could have kept the old AP and UPI poll days.........

(11-03-2015 07:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) Clemson
2) LSU
3) Ohio State
4) Alabama

5) Notre Dame
6) Baylor

Top G5 ... Memphis #13

Committee definitely looking at SOS and how/where a team lost, not just record.

Let's look at this from the realistic view of a cynic. ESPN is hedging bets from the get go this year.

They will hope that the winner of the L.S.U. / Alabama game wins out. If L.S.U. wins any subsequent loss, as long as it is close will not derail them unless it is to Florida in the Championship game by which time the Gators will have risen by attrition to a position close enough to attain spot #4.

Ohio State is a safe start right now but Michigan State will catapult up there if they beat the Buckeyes, and Iowa will remain in striking position so that they can slip in with a win in the CCG.

The SEC and Big 10 the two top drawing conferences have their tickets punched provided their leaders don't all have two slip ups.

Clemson is there for ACC inclusion provided they beat F.S.U.. If a weak F.S.U. with a bad loss emerges to the ACC title game, and wins, it won't matter provided Notre Dame (the real national draw) beats Stanford. Then you have either LSU/Florida/Alabama for one slot, Ohio State/Michigan State/ Iowa for another, Clemson if they win out, and the winner of Stanford / Notre Dame neither of which will be seriously challenged (Stanford more so) before the end of the regular season.

Baylor is 6th as a wink at the Big 12. If T.C.U. beats them they will get within winking distance. If Oklahoma State wins out and any of the Big 10 / SEC / or ACC screw the pooch then the Cowboys will likely get in, but only then.

T.C.U. and Baylor are exactly what they were last year, box office poison.

For you neophyte true believers does anything stand starkly out with this lineup? National brands all. SEC Brand, Big 10 Brand, Notre Dame/ Stanford, and possibly and undefeated Clemson which is a strong regional brand with a very rabid fan base.

This is the committee's way of saying to ESPN, by text of course since we are all so very modern about the smoke filled room, FIFY.

Chock full of unsubstantiated conspiracy theory. Nevertheless, what you say has the ring of truth about it ...

(11-04-2015 01:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) Clemson
2) LSU
3) Ohio State
4) Alabama

5) Notre Dame
6) Baylor

Top G5 ... Memphis #13

Committee definitely looking at SOS and how/where a team lost, not just record.

Committee definitely looking at the name on the jersey. How else do you explain Ohio St. at #3 while Iowa is way down at #9? Ohio St.'s schedule has been weak and they haven't been particularly impressive.

I explain it by the 'cumulative eyeball test'. We know OSU is coached by Urban Meyer, a 3-time national title winner. We know OSU is loaded with NFL athletes, the NFL scouts themselves tell us so. We know that OSU last year had a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents, so easy to ignore 'close' games against lesser teams.

I am a huge fan of SOS, and agree with your comments. Nevertheless, if I had a vote, OSU would be in my top 4 as well. I can't imagine a playoffs without them if they keep winning.

(11-04-2015 01:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) Clemson
2) LSU
3) Ohio State
4) Alabama

5) Notre Dame
6) Baylor

Top G5 ... Memphis #13

Committee definitely looking at SOS and how/where a team lost, not just record.

Committee definitely looking at the name on the jersey. How else do you explain Ohio St. at #3 while Iowa is way down at #9? Ohio St.'s schedule has been weak and they haven't been particularly impressive. At the same time Baylor has been blowing weak opponents away and is down at #6.

Eye test also matters. As an Iowa guy, I have no problem admitting that Ohio State looks like a much better team than Iowa. It's not that Iowa doesn't have a shot at beating them in the CCG, but when it comes to the eye test, the difference is undeniable in my opinion.

Iowa's ranking is fine. If they win out they will be in, no big deal.

(11-04-2015 01:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 08:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 08:17 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Eventually, the Big 12 will get the hint. If a 1 loss Notre Dame makes the playoff over an undefeated Big 12, just bite the bullet.

That won't happen. The Big 12 teams have huge games coming up, enough to propel them past Notre Dame.

There is a 100% chance that an unbeaten Big 12 team makes the playoffs.

It will be interesting to see how important a conference championship is this year if Alabama is 11-1 but behind Ole Miss in the SEC West. Will that suddenly be lightly weighted?

IMO, a CCG is important only in that it gives a team on the edge one more chance to impress the committee via a game against a quality opponent on the eve of the final vote.

Alabama is already #4, and they play #2 LSU this week. They also have ranked Mississippi State after that.

The committee has made it clear that if they win out, they will very likely be in, even if they do not win the SEC.

(11-04-2015 01:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...f-rankings

Heather Dinrich:

If we learned anything from the first CFP ranking on Tuesday, it was this: You can't pin the selection committee down on any one, single criteria. Strength of schedule? Check. Eye test? Check. Results against common opponents? Check. Yet it was impossible to tell what mattered the most (maybe eye test?) and if it was applied consistently across the ranking in the short amount of time Long had to explain it.

For Alabama, three wins over teams with records better than .500 was the big selling point -- but undefeated Iowa also had three wins against teams with records better than .500.

Answer: eye test.

"Their offense is something we look at closely," Long said of the Hawkeyes. "I think there's a question in the room of how strong their offense is. I think their defense has been consistent, but it's difficult to judge based on the quality of teams they've played at this point in some respects."

Undefeated TCU and Baylor clearly have no problem scoring points, but the defenses they have faced could also be called into question. The first ranking was a reminder of just how ambiguous and subjective this fledgling system is -- something that is going to take some getting used to.

Many argue that these rankings don't matter, and that there should be only one top 25 revealed at the end of the season, but this format allows fans, coaches and media to gain insight into how the committee thinks and understand the reasons behind their decisions and what matters to them. It's only valuable, though, when it's easy to understand.

SO: to summarize-there's no logic or rhyme or reason to it. They are no more credible than AP Pollsters.

She hits it on the head. Committee seems to put more emphasis on "eye test" this year than last. Maybe it is just the first week, but that was my thought.

maybe that's something they learned as a result of last year. Ohio St looked like they passed the eye test last year, while everyone's eyes could tell that Florida St wasn't good.

(11-03-2015 08:17 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Eventually, the Big 12 will get the hint. If a 1 loss Notre Dame makes the playoff over an undefeated Big 12, just bite the bullet.

That's not going to happen...

these first ratings are reflective of the season up to this point...the Big XII big names all play each other. An undefeated TCU, Baylor, or Oklahoma State will be in guaranteed...

(11-04-2015 09:47 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 01:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...f-rankings

Heather Dinrich:

If we learned anything from the first CFP ranking on Tuesday, it was this: You can't pin the selection committee down on any one, single criteria. Strength of schedule? Check. Eye test? Check. Results against common opponents? Check. Yet it was impossible to tell what mattered the most (maybe eye test?) and if it was applied consistently across the ranking in the short amount of time Long had to explain it.

For Alabama, three wins over teams with records better than .500 was the big selling point -- but undefeated Iowa also had three wins against teams with records better than .500.

Answer: eye test.

"Their offense is something we look at closely," Long said of the Hawkeyes. "I think there's a question in the room of how strong their offense is. I think their defense has been consistent, but it's difficult to judge based on the quality of teams they've played at this point in some respects."

Undefeated TCU and Baylor clearly have no problem scoring points, but the defenses they have faced could also be called into question. The first ranking was a reminder of just how ambiguous and subjective this fledgling system is -- something that is going to take some getting used to.

Many argue that these rankings don't matter, and that there should be only one top 25 revealed at the end of the season, but this format allows fans, coaches and media to gain insight into how the committee thinks and understand the reasons behind their decisions and what matters to them. It's only valuable, though, when it's easy to understand.

SO: to summarize-there's no logic or rhyme or reason to it. They are no more credible than AP Pollsters.

She hits it on the head. Committee seems to put more emphasis on "eye test" this year than last. Maybe it is just the first week, but that was my thought.

...and this is based on what? what makes you think they're doing "eye tests" and not looking at resumes as well....?

The Big XII has no marquee wins, it's that simple...once they start playing each other, they'll move up...I imagine the Oklahoma St-TCU winner will probably be very high in the rankings

I think the committee nailed it. Put in the teams that control their own destiny in the top 4. Bama is clearly in if they win out, now that the PAC champ has a loss. There is no way a team like Stanford or ND jumps them out of nowhere at the end of the year. That Bama/LSU loser will be replaced by the highest ranking Big 12 team in the following poll. Just have that consistency, unlike last year, and no one will complain. Don't keep flip flopping.

(11-04-2015 07:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 01:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...f-rankings

Heather Dinrich:

If we learned anything from the first CFP ranking on Tuesday, it was this: You can't pin the selection committee down on any one, single criteria. Strength of schedule? Check. Eye test? Check. Results against common opponents? Check. Yet it was impossible to tell what mattered the most (maybe eye test?) and if it was applied consistently across the ranking in the short amount of time Long had to explain it.

For Alabama, three wins over teams with records better than .500 was the big selling point -- but undefeated Iowa also had three wins against teams with records better than .500.

Answer: eye test.

"Their offense is something we look at closely," Long said of the Hawkeyes. "I think there's a question in the room of how strong their offense is. I think their defense has been consistent, but it's difficult to judge based on the quality of teams they've played at this point in some respects."

Undefeated TCU and Baylor clearly have no problem scoring points, but the defenses they have faced could also be called into question. The first ranking was a reminder of just how ambiguous and subjective this fledgling system is -- something that is going to take some getting used to.

Many argue that these rankings don't matter, and that there should be only one top 25 revealed at the end of the season, but this format allows fans, coaches and media to gain insight into how the committee thinks and understand the reasons behind their decisions and what matters to them. It's only valuable, though, when it's easy to understand.

SO: to summarize-there's no logic or rhyme or reason to it. They are no more credible than AP Pollsters.

Well, if so, same as it ever was.

This is the playoff system that people were clamoring for. They got it.

We could have kept the old AP and UPI poll days.........

Or you could go to 8 with 5 slots for the P5 champs and get rid of most of the nonsense.