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Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
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stever20 Online
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Post: #21
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 10:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC has been the equal of the ACC on the field so far, arguably better.

Who in the AAC could win the ACC?

Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Duke, and Pitt could win the AAC.

Memphis, Houston, Temple, and Navy could all win the ACC.

And wouldn't say it's a guarantee that UNC, Duke, or Pitt could win the AAC.
11-03-2015 10:54 AM
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NBPirate Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 10:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC has been the equal of the ACC on the field so far, arguably better.

Who in the AAC could win the ACC?

Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Duke, and Pitt could win the AAC.

UNC isn't winning anything
11-03-2015 10:57 AM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #23
Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
How is the AAC equal or better than the ACC when 5 schools (Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UCF & UConn) couldn't win a game in the ACC? The top of the AAC have been great this year but the bottom is just awful. Those 5 teams are 4-19 in conference & 11-31 overall. The top of the ACC is better & the bottom is as well.

CONF OVR
West
Houston 4-0 8-0
Memphis 4-0 8-0
Navy 4-0 6-1
Tulsa 1-3 4-4
Tulane 1-4 2-6
SMU 0-4 1-7
East
Temple 4-0 7-1
Cincinnati 2-2 5-3
USF 2-2 4-4
East Carolina 2-3 4-5
UConn 2-3 4-5
UCF 0-5 0-9
11-03-2015 11:17 AM
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Hank Schrader Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 11:17 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  How is the AAC equal or better than the ACC when 5 schools (Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UCF & UConn) couldn't win a game in the ACC? The top of the AAC have been great this year but the bottom is just awful. Those 5 teams are 4-19 in conference & 11-31 overall. The top of the ACC is better & the bottom is as well.

CONF OVR
West
Houston 4-0 8-0
Memphis 4-0 8-0
Navy 4-0 6-1
Tulsa 1-3 4-4
Tulane 1-4 2-6
SMU 0-4 1-7
East
Temple 4-0 7-1
Cincinnati 2-2 5-3
USF 2-2 4-4
East Carolina 2-3 4-5
UConn 2-3 4-5
UCF 0-5 0-9

5 schools is a bit of a stretch. I would give you three.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...gs/cbs/128

Based off this CBS disagrees and has UConn ahead of BC, Syracuse, and Wake Forest as well as Tulsa ahead of those three plus Virginia.
11-03-2015 11:33 AM
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-02-2015 10:41 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  So the AAC guy looks at 10 conferences and makes a top "7" list so he can passive-aggressively list MW at the bottom.

lol, pathetic.

Well CUSA and the SBC are both dumpster fires. Who cares which order they are in.
11-03-2015 11:35 AM
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AppfanInCAAland Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-02-2015 09:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  #10 SBC 5-27 .156

(11-03-2015 11:35 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Well CUSA and the SBC are both dumpster fires. Who cares which order they are in.

The worst part about the SBC is that the two newest move-ups from FCS are 3-2 vs FBS (3-0 v G5, 0-2 v P5) which makes the rest of the league 2-25.
11-03-2015 11:49 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-02-2015 10:41 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  So the AAC guy looks at 10 conferences and makes a top "7" list so he can passive-aggressively list MW at the bottom.

lol, pathetic.

Don't be an idiot. As someone else pointed out, MWC isn't even 7th. He was complimenting the MWC as one of the top 7. They haven't shown it on the field this year. They are just barely ahead of the Sun Belt and behind the MAC and CUSA.
11-03-2015 12:10 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 10:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 10:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC has been the equal of the ACC on the field so far, arguably better.

Who in the AAC could win the ACC?

Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Duke, and Pitt could win the AAC.

Memphis, Houston, Temple, and Navy could all win the ACC.

And wouldn't say it's a guarantee that UNC, Duke, or Pitt could win the AAC.

There isn't a team on that list that is within two scores of Clemson or FSU.
11-03-2015 01:13 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
It's always pointless to compare conferences based on their OOC records unless all of them are playing comparable opponents. As is always the case in football, we will be dealing with sample sizes that are too small to be meaningful to yield a valid analysis.

Geography will likely always have a major influence on OOC schedules. The Big Ten will probably always play a lot of games against the MAC, with whom they share a footprint completely. Likewise, the PAC will schedule a lot of MWC teams, because those are the ones in or near their time zones.

If the ACC plays several Big Ten opponents, surely it makes a difference if those are Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland or if they are Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. If you play enough games, those differences will become smaller as the sample becomes more representative of the entire conference. But we don't play enough games, and probably never will.

It's easy to dismiss rating services like Sagarin, but at least they provide a way to account for differences in schedule strength. And while individuals might disagree with Sagarin's ranking of specific teams relative to other specific teams, there is no evidence of bias in his ratings - at least none that I can find, and I have tried hard to find some.

I have been comparing Sagarin's predicted outcomes based on his home field adjusted power rankings, and I have found that in nearly every game his predicted winner and margin of victory are within a couple of points of the Las Vegas odds for those games. You may not have much respect for Sagarin's rankings, but as a prediction model, they are as good as the best in the business - the odds makers who have no bias other than making money by setting good point spreads.

Those bookies, by design, try to establish spreads that will get as much money bet on one team as on its opponent. Thanks to a "surge" the last two weeks by favorites, they have now covered the spread 50.3% of the time so far this year. Two weeks ago, 50.1 % of the underdogs beat the spread. I don't see how the bookies could do a better job, and Sagarin is doing just as well.

FWIW, Sagarin currently ranks the conferences as follows:

SEC.....79.7
B12.....79.6
PAC.....78.3
ACC.... 75.7
B1G.....75.3
AAC.....67.6
MWC...61.2
MAC....60.3
USA....55.3
SBC....54.6

These rankings reflect performance over 9 weeks. They always become more statistically significant as more games have been played. But rarely do the final weeks of the season bring a major change in their relative ranking.

If you look at conference performance over the past several years, you will see that the SEC, B12 and PAC have been better than the other two P5's by a small but statistically significant margin, and that the ACC and B1G have been neck and neck. The SEC has nearly always been 1st over the past five years, the B12 and PAC take turns in second, and the ACC and B1G take turns bringing up the P5 rear. All of the P5 have been better than the best G5 by a large margin.

This year, the AAC is clearly the strongest G5. Last year, the MWC was, by about the same margin. We have only two years to compare the two conferences, and only time will tell if one is consistently superior to the other. If I were betting, I would bet they aren't. But who knows?
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2015 01:32 PM by ken d.)
11-03-2015 01:16 PM
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NBPirate Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 01:13 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 10:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 10:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC has been the equal of the ACC on the field so far, arguably better.

Who in the AAC could win the ACC?

Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Duke, and Pitt could win the AAC.

Memphis, Houston, Temple, and Navy could all win the ACC.

And wouldn't say it's a guarantee that UNC, Duke, or Pitt could win the AAC.

There isn't a team on that list that is within two scores of Clemson or FSU.

Don't be silly. FSU only beat Wake freaking Forest by 8.
11-03-2015 01:24 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 01:24 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 01:13 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 10:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 10:52 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC has been the equal of the ACC on the field so far, arguably better.

Who in the AAC could win the ACC?

Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Duke, and Pitt could win the AAC.

Memphis, Houston, Temple, and Navy could all win the ACC.

And wouldn't say it's a guarantee that UNC, Duke, or Pitt could win the AAC.

There isn't a team on that list that is within two scores of Clemson or FSU.

Don't be silly. FSU only beat Wake freaking Forest by 8.

So? Transitive properties don't apply.

Syracuse beat Wake by 13, so Syracuse should have beat FSU right? FSU beat Syracuse by 24 missing both their starting QB and starting RB.
11-03-2015 01:37 PM
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NBPirate Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
And USF beat Syracuse by 21
ECU beat Va Tech
Houston beat Louisville
Cincy beat Miami
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2015 01:57 PM by NBPirate.)
11-03-2015 01:56 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 01:56 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  And USF beat Syracuse by 21
ECU beat Va Tech
Houston beat Louisville
Cincy beat Miami

And none of that says that any of those teams would be within two scores of Clemson or FSU.

We already know USF wasn't within two scores of FSU.
11-03-2015 02:03 PM
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BobL Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 01:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  It's always pointless to compare conferences based on their OOC records unless all of them are playing comparable opponents. As is always the case in football, we will be dealing with sample sizes that are too small to be meaningful to yield a valid analysis.

Geography will likely always have a major influence on OOC schedules. The Big Ten will probably always play a lot of games against the MAC, with whom they share a footprint completely. Likewise, the PAC will schedule a lot of MWC teams, because those are the ones in or near their time zones.

If the ACC plays several Big Ten opponents, surely it makes a difference if those are Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland or if they are Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. If you play enough games, those differences will become smaller as the sample becomes more representative of the entire conference. But we don't play enough games, and probably never will.

It's easy to dismiss rating services like Sagarin, but at least they provide a way to account for differences in schedule strength. And while individuals might disagree with Sagarin's ranking of specific teams relative to other specific teams, there is no evidence of bias in his ratings - at least none that I can find, and I have tried hard to find some.

I have been comparing Sagarin's predicted outcomes based on his home field adjusted power rankings, and I have found that in nearly every game his predicted winner and margin of victory are within a couple of points of the Las Vegas odds for those games. You may not have much respect for Sagarin's rankings, but as a prediction model, they are as good as the best in the business - the odds makers who have no bias other than making money by setting good point spreads.

Those bookies, by design, try to establish spreads that will get as much money bet on one team as on its opponent. Thanks to a "surge" the last two weeks by favorites, they have now covered the spread 50.3% of the time so far this year. Two weeks ago, 50.1 % of the underdogs beat the spread. I don't see how the bookies could do a better job, and Sagarin is doing just as well.

FWIW, Sagarin currently ranks the conferences as follows:

SEC.....79.7
B12.....79.6
PAC.....78.3
ACC.... 75.7
B1G.....75.3
AAC.....67.6
MWC...61.2
MAC....60.3
USA....55.3
SBC....54.6

These rankings reflect performance over 9 weeks. They always become more statistically significant as more games have been played. But rarely do the final weeks of the season bring a major change in their relative ranking.

If you look at conference performance over the past several years, you will see that the SEC, B12 and PAC have been better than the other two P5's by a small but statistically significant margin, and that the ACC and B1G have been neck and neck. The SEC has nearly always been 1st over the past five years, the B12 and PAC take turns in second, and the ACC and B1G take turns bringing up the P5 rear. All of the P5 have been better than the best G5 by a large margin.

This year, the AAC is clearly the strongest G5. Last year, the MWC was, by about the same margin. We have only two years to compare the two conferences, and only time will tell if one is consistently superior to the other. If I were betting, I would bet they aren't. But who knows?

Massey has the G5 ranked as follows(divisions broken out as well)
AAC West
American Athletic
AAC East
MAC West
Mid-American
MWC-Mountain
MAC East
Mountain West
Sun Belt
CUSA East
Conference USA
CUSA West
MWC-West
11-03-2015 02:10 PM
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
I don't think anyone from any conference will beat Clemson this year.

But I think Memphis, Houston and Temple could all handle FSU. They are going to be embarrassed by the Tigers.
11-03-2015 02:30 PM
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
Oh, and no way Pitt or UNC would win the American this year. They have good records but they haven't beaten anyone worth a damn yet. UNC has played two FCS schools and some ACC bottom feeders while Pitt's about to go on a 4-game losing streak.
11-03-2015 02:34 PM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
agreed, UNC and Pitt would probably be towards the middle of the AAC at best.
11-03-2015 02:35 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 11:17 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  How is the AAC equal or better than the ACC when 5 schools (Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UCF & UConn) couldn't win a game in the ACC? The top of the AAC have been great this year but the bottom is just awful. Those 5 teams are 4-19 in conference & 11-31 overall. The top of the ACC is better & the bottom is as well.

The ACC is 3-8 against the other P5, and 3-4 vs the AAC, so 6-12 overall.

The AAC is 4-8 against the other P5, and 4-3 vs the ACC, so 8-11 overall.

The ACC has been really bad this year. It's hard to argue they are better than the AAC.
11-03-2015 02:52 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 02:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2015 11:17 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  How is the AAC equal or better than the ACC when 5 schools (Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UCF & UConn) couldn't win a game in the ACC? The top of the AAC have been great this year but the bottom is just awful. Those 5 teams are 4-19 in conference & 11-31 overall. The top of the ACC is better & the bottom is as well.

The ACC is 3-8 against the other P5, and 3-4 vs the AAC, so 6-12 overall.

The AAC is 4-8 against the other P5, and 4-3 vs the ACC, so 8-11 overall.

The ACC has been really bad this year. It's hard to argue they are better than the AAC.
You must not be counting Notre Dame who is de facto P5.
11-03-2015 02:57 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Top 7 conferences ranked by W/L vs. FBS/P5
(11-03-2015 12:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-02-2015 10:41 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  So the AAC guy looks at 10 conferences and makes a top "7" list so he can passive-aggressively list MW at the bottom.

lol, pathetic.

Don't be an idiot. As someone else pointed out, MWC isn't even 7th. He was complimenting the MWC as one of the top 7. They haven't shown it on the field this year. They are just barely ahead of the Sun Belt and behind the MAC and CUSA.

you're the idiot if you think its rational to look at a group of 10 things and make a top 7 list. you're the idiot if you think a UConn fan was trying to compliment the Mountain West. Don't be an idiot.
11-03-2015 03:22 PM
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