(11-02-2015 04:27 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS is its them and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

Now I disagree. If Baylor is 12-0, they will be in over Stanford or Notre Dame. Part of it is they will have a better win in TCU than anything that Stanford or Notre Dame would have. Also, especially if the team that wins is Stanford- that loss to Northwestern is looking worse and worse as we go along.

Also, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St at 9-3 will be ranked guaranteed. Right now, there's only 34 P5 teams with 3 or fewer losses- with of those 34- 7 of them with 3 losses. So they would have 3 ranked wins. Baylor's SOS is 109 right now- but it won't be that end of the season.

If NW holds off Penn St on Saturday at home, they'll likely be 8-2 heading into Madison, with wins over Stanford, Duke and Penn St, followed the next week with rivalry game vs Illinois at Soldier Field.

Obviously Stanford will be cheering for them to go 10-2.

but Northwestern at 10-2 would be pretty far away from TCU at 11-1.

(11-02-2015 04:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:06 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

If the Big 12 champ is 11-1, with the only exception maybe being Oklahoma- they are out. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St just have too bad of an OOC schedule to have any shot of getting in at 11-1. Oklahoma has a shot- but wouldn't say it's a great shot.

Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

1/2- Big Ten Champ(Ohio St or Mich St vs Iowa) and SEC champ(Alabama or LSU vs Florida) both probably in easily over them- regardless of who wins.
3- Clemson in easily over them at 13-0
4- Stanford/Notre Dame winner in over them at 12-1 or 11-1

Also, if Notre Dame beats Stanford- and then Utah beats Stanford in the P12 title game- Utah would get in over them.

They would need a decent amount of luck quite frankly. Really only hope would be to have Clemson lose somewhere, and have Stanford beat both Notre Dame and Utah.

Actually it is the other way around. There are plenty of spots where any or all or all of those teams could slip up and the likelihood of all that happening without slip ups is low. Upsets happen.

The difference with the Big 12 than any other conference is that because all the top teams play each other and basically no one else, no matter what happens there really can't be any debilitating "upsets". Someone is going to emerge with a strong resume no matter what happens.

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

(11-02-2015 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:27 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS is its them and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

Now I disagree. If Baylor is 12-0, they will be in over Stanford or Notre Dame. Part of it is they will have a better win in TCU than anything that Stanford or Notre Dame would have. Also, especially if the team that wins is Stanford- that loss to Northwestern is looking worse and worse as we go along.

Also, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St at 9-3 will be ranked guaranteed. Right now, there's only 34 P5 teams with 3 or fewer losses- with of those 34- 7 of them with 3 losses. So they would have 3 ranked wins. Baylor's SOS is 109 right now- but it won't be that end of the season.

If NW holds off Penn St on Saturday at home, they'll likely be 8-2 heading into Madison, with wins over Stanford, Duke and Penn St, followed the next week with rivalry game vs Illinois at Soldier Field.

Obviously Stanford will be cheering for them to go 10-2.

but Northwestern at 10-2 would be pretty far away from TCU at 11-1.

I meant it in the sense of a "quality loss" for Stanford.

(11-02-2015 04:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

If you are looking at an individual team you are correct, but because we don't care which team is 3-0, you have to add up the chances for each team to be 3-0. Looking at it another way and using FPI, those chances are Baylor, 17.3%, TCU 16.4%, OU 13% and OSU 2.4% or 49.2%

(11-02-2015 04:52 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

If you are looking at an individual team you are correct, but because we don't care which team is 3-0, you have to add up the chances for each team to be 3-0. Looking at it another way and using FPI, those chances are Baylor, 17.3%, TCU 16.4%, OU 13% and OSU 2.4% or 49.2%

That's not what I'm talking about, either.

I'm just pointing out that the four different possibilities you've given above do not each have a 25% probability of happening.

(11-02-2015 06:05 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:52 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

If you are looking at an individual team you are correct, but because we don't care which team is 3-0, you have to add up the chances for each team to be 3-0. Looking at it another way and using FPI, those chances are Baylor, 17.3%, TCU 16.4%, OU 13% and OSU 2.4% or 49.2%

That's not what I'm talking about, either.

I'm just pointing out that the four different possibilities you've given above do not each have a 25% probability of happening.

It's pretty close to 25% each, actually if you do the math. Each event is pretty close to 50-50. Not exact but pretty close. It's pretty much 25-25-25-25 for those 4 possibilities.

(11-02-2015 04:52 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

If you are looking at an individual team you are correct, but because we don't care which team is 3-0, you have to add up the chances for each team to be 3-0. Looking at it another way and using FPI, those chances are Baylor, 17.3%, TCU 16.4%, OU 13% and OSU 2.4% or 49.2%

but then take out Oklahoma's 13% chance, because like it or not, they are no lock at 11-1. If you have 13-0 Ohio St, 13-0 Clemson, 0-1 loss SEC champion, those 3 teams are in period. Oklahoma would be battling with Notre Dame or Stanford for the final spot. No lock there whatsoever.

(11-02-2015 04:34 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:06 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

If the Big 12 champ is 11-1, with the only exception maybe being Oklahoma- they are out. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St just have too bad of an OOC schedule to have any shot of getting in at 11-1. Oklahoma has a shot- but wouldn't say it's a great shot.

Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

1/2- Big Ten Champ(Ohio St or Mich St vs Iowa) and SEC champ(Alabama or LSU vs Florida) both probably in easily over them- regardless of who wins.
3- Clemson in easily over them at 13-0
4- Stanford/Notre Dame winner in over them at 12-1 or 11-1

Also, if Notre Dame beats Stanford- and then Utah beats Stanford in the P12 title game- Utah would get in over them.

They would need a decent amount of luck quite frankly. Really only hope would be to have Clemson lose somewhere, and have Stanford beat both Notre Dame and Utah.

Actually it is the other way around. There are plenty of spots where any or all or all of those teams could slip up and the likelihood of all that happening without slip ups is low. Upsets happen.

The difference with the Big 12 than any other conference is that because all the top teams play each other and basically no one else, no matter what happens there really can't be any debilitating "upsets". Someone is going to emerge with a strong resume no matter what happens.

Ohio St+ Mich St+ Iowa= 50% chance 1 wins out
Clemson 42.5% chance they win out
LSU+ Florida= 27.3% chance they win out. If you add Alabama's 18.5% chance, that's up to 45.8% chance 1 wins out(if Ole Miss loses, Alabama controls own destiny).
Notre Dame+Stanford= 43.8% chance they win out

That's what Big 12 is facing should the champion come out with a loss. And the thing is, for Clemson, LSU/Alabama- their odds go WAY up after this weekend. Look at Clemson. After this weekend- their pct odds are all over 86.4%.

(11-02-2015 06:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:52 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

If you are looking at an individual team you are correct, but because we don't care which team is 3-0, you have to add up the chances for each team to be 3-0. Looking at it another way and using FPI, those chances are Baylor, 17.3%, TCU 16.4%, OU 13% and OSU 2.4% or 49.2%

but then take out Oklahoma's 13% chance, because like it or not, they are no lock at 11-1. If you have 13-0 Ohio St, 13-0 Clemson, 0-1 loss SEC champion, those 3 teams are in period. Oklahoma would be battling with Notre Dame or Stanford for the final spot. No lock there whatsoever.

An 11-1 OU team with wins over two top 10 teams and a top 20 team in the last month will be in very good shape. Nothing is 100% in any of this, but they'd have a very strong resume- much better than either TCU or Baylor had last year.

(11-02-2015 07:07 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 06:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:52 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

Have to make one small correction to your statement:

just because half of the possibilities are for a team to go 3-0, does not mean that outcome has a 50% probability of happening.


Each possible outcome has some probability assigned to it. The total sum of the four have to add up to 100%.


So right now, it could very well be the case that the total probability of a team going 3-0 has less than 10% probability of happening.

If you are looking at an individual team you are correct, but because we don't care which team is 3-0, you have to add up the chances for each team to be 3-0. Looking at it another way and using FPI, those chances are Baylor, 17.3%, TCU 16.4%, OU 13% and OSU 2.4% or 49.2%

but then take out Oklahoma's 13% chance, because like it or not, they are no lock at 11-1. If you have 13-0 Ohio St, 13-0 Clemson, 0-1 loss SEC champion, those 3 teams are in period. Oklahoma would be battling with Notre Dame or Stanford for the final spot. No lock there whatsoever.

An 11-1 OU team with wins over two top 10 teams and a top 20 team in the last month will be in very good shape. Nothing is 100% in any of this, but they'd have a very strong resume- much better than either TCU or Baylor had last year.

Well first off- no guarantee that a 10-2 TCU/Baylor team would be in the top 10.

1 thing that would probably come back to absolutely DESTROY Oklahoma- if they're going up against Notre Dame- is the common opponent- Texas.
And- if it's Stanford they're going up against- Stanford could have last 2 games against 10-1 Notre Dame and 11-1 Utah. Pretty darn good way to end the season.... Stanford could have 12 straight wins- with quite possibly 2 top 10 teams and 2 top 25 teams.

Don't think there's any way if it's 11-1 Notre Dame vs 11-1 Oklahoma that Oklahoma gets it. The Texas common opponent just is devastating. And Stanford may have a better overall resume than Notre Dame quite frankly.

(11-02-2015 06:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:34 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:06 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If the Big 12 champ is 11-1, with the only exception maybe being Oklahoma- they are out. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St just have too bad of an OOC schedule to have any shot of getting in at 11-1. Oklahoma has a shot- but wouldn't say it's a great shot.

Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

1/2- Big Ten Champ(Ohio St or Mich St vs Iowa) and SEC champ(Alabama or LSU vs Florida) both probably in easily over them- regardless of who wins.
3- Clemson in easily over them at 13-0
4- Stanford/Notre Dame winner in over them at 12-1 or 11-1

Also, if Notre Dame beats Stanford- and then Utah beats Stanford in the P12 title game- Utah would get in over them.

They would need a decent amount of luck quite frankly. Really only hope would be to have Clemson lose somewhere, and have Stanford beat both Notre Dame and Utah.

Actually it is the other way around. There are plenty of spots where any or all or all of those teams could slip up and the likelihood of all that happening without slip ups is low. Upsets happen.

The difference with the Big 12 than any other conference is that because all the top teams play each other and basically no one else, no matter what happens there really can't be any debilitating "upsets". Someone is going to emerge with a strong resume no matter what happens.

Ohio St+ Mich St+ Iowa= 50% chance 1 wins out
Clemson 42.5% chance they win out
LSU+ Florida= 27.3% chance they win out. If you add Alabama's 18.5% chance, that's up to 45.8% chance 1 wins out(if Ole Miss loses, Alabama controls own destiny).
Notre Dame+Stanford= 43.8% chance they win out

That's what Big 12 is facing should the champion come out with a loss. And the thing is, for Clemson, LSU/Alabama- their odds go WAY up after this weekend. Look at Clemson. After this weekend- their pct odds are all over 86.4%.

Multiplying all those % together from each conference and Indy results in a very low % chance that all happens.

Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

In this scenario, it's Ohio St, Clemson, Alabama, and ND. Not having a CCG doesn't hurt as much as the names on the front of TCU's and Utah's jerseys.

(11-02-2015 08:00 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

In this scenario, it's Ohio St, Clemson, Alabama, and ND. Not having a CCG doesn't hurt as much as the names on the front of TCU's and Utah's jerseys.

I agree but if 3 power conference have an undefeated champ and a 1 loss USC, Alabama and ND are left then the CCG probably comes into play.

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

Gets even more interesting if Alabama doesn't make the CCG at 11-1.

(11-02-2015 08:31 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

Gets even more interesting if Alabama doesn't make the CCG at 11-1.

For sure. My point is not to dog on teams that don't have a CCG but it's to point out that there is so little margin of error to get in CFP that you almost have to run the table. If you do lose it better be early or to a really good team. The committee is putting an emphasis on head to head, strength of schedule and CCG. I just feel it's putting teams that don't get that prime time CCG in last week of season at a disadvantage. Ohio State wouldn't have made it to CFP last year if they didn't have that CCG to change minds on the CFP Committee.

(11-02-2015 08:53 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 08:31 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

Gets even more interesting if Alabama doesn't make the CCG at 11-1.

For sure. My point is not to dog on teams that don't have a CCG but it's to point out that there is so little margin of error to get in CFP that you almost have to run the table. If you do lose it better be early or to a really good team. The committee is putting an emphasis on head to head, strength of schedule and CCG. I just feel it's putting teams that don't get that prime time CCG in last week of season at a disadvantage. Ohio State wouldn't have made it to CFP last year if they didn't have that CCG to change minds on the CFP Committee.

The committee isn't emphasizing a CCG. It emphasizes conference championships. The CCG is important because it is a chance for an extra quality win on the last weekend, which can be huge if that team is on the bubble. Of course it is also a chance for your best team to lose. For example Clemson, should it win out, would almost certainly be in the playoff even without the CCG boost. In that situation the CCG is probably a 30% chance at a loss or so, which likely would knock the ACC out of the playoff. If it had a choice and Clemson was 12-0, it would probably choose to cancel its CCG rather than risk it.

(11-02-2015 09:27 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 08:53 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 08:31 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

Gets even more interesting if Alabama doesn't make the CCG at 11-1.

For sure. My point is not to dog on teams that don't have a CCG but it's to point out that there is so little margin of error to get in CFP that you almost have to run the table. If you do lose it better be early or to a really good team. The committee is putting an emphasis on head to head, strength of schedule and CCG. I just feel it's putting teams that don't get that prime time CCG in last week of season at a disadvantage. Ohio State wouldn't have made it to CFP last year if they didn't have that CCG to change minds on the CFP Committee.

The committee isn't emphasizing a CCG. It emphasizes conference championships. The CCG is important because it is a chance for an extra quality win on the last weekend, which can be huge if that team is on the bubble. Of course it is also a chance for your best team to lose. For example Clemson, should it win out, would almost certainly be in the playoff even without the CCG boost. In that situation the CCG is probably a 30% chance at a loss or so, which likely would knock the ACC out of the playoff. If it had a choice and Clemson was 12-0, it would probably choose to cancel its CCG rather than risk it.

But then FSU if they beat Clemson, could use the CCG to get an extra top 25 win and possibly get themselves into the playoff.

(11-02-2015 09:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 09:27 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 08:53 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 08:31 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 07:54 PM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  Lets say in theory that Ohio State and Clemson goes undefeated. Then Alabama, Utah, TCU and ND have one loss. How much will not having a CCG hurt TCU & ND?

Gets even more interesting if Alabama doesn't make the CCG at 11-1.

For sure. My point is not to dog on teams that don't have a CCG but it's to point out that there is so little margin of error to get in CFP that you almost have to run the table. If you do lose it better be early or to a really good team. The committee is putting an emphasis on head to head, strength of schedule and CCG. I just feel it's putting teams that don't get that prime time CCG in last week of season at a disadvantage. Ohio State wouldn't have made it to CFP last year if they didn't have that CCG to change minds on the CFP Committee.

The committee isn't emphasizing a CCG. It emphasizes conference championships. The CCG is important because it is a chance for an extra quality win on the last weekend, which can be huge if that team is on the bubble. Of course it is also a chance for your best team to lose. For example Clemson, should it win out, would almost certainly be in the playoff even without the CCG boost. In that situation the CCG is probably a 30% chance at a loss or so, which likely would knock the ACC out of the playoff. If it had a choice and Clemson was 12-0, it would probably choose to cancel its CCG rather than risk it.

But then FSU if they beat Clemson, could use the CCG to get an extra top 25 win and possibly get themselves into the playoff.

Yep. It cuts both ways. It can help or hurt you depending on the circumstances. ptobably ends up being a 50-50 proposition.