Teams with 1st Loss: 1
Temple

Teams with 2nd Loss: 2
Pittsburgh
Duke

Teams with 1st Win: 2
North Texas
New Mexico State

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 33.59% (43 of 128)
Week 2: 40.00% (34 of 85)
Week 3: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 4: 14.71% (5 of 34)
Week 5: 31.03% (9 of 29)
Week 6: 20% (4 of 20)
Week 7: 12.5% (2 of 16)
Week 8: 14.29% (2 of 14)
Week 9: 8.33% (1 of 12)


Number of Possible Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 6
- Toledo, LSU, Clemson, Memphis/Houston, Baylor/TCU/Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Michigan State/Iowa



Week 9 Thoughts:
-Our biggest action as far as these lists go this week was from the previous winless teams as we lost half our list as 2 of the 4 teams won. Against Idaho, New Mexico State won in overtime. Meanwhile, North Texas, which had lost badly to a 1-AA school earlier in the year, beat UTSA. This leaves only Kansas and Central Florida winless.

-Big divisional action this week for our 1-loss teams. It may not have been even November yet, but Florida clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game with that win over Georgia. Meanwhile, Stanford won a tough game over Washington State which gives them an effective 2 game lead with only 3 games left for them to play.

Week 10 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeated teams this week. TCU is going to Oklahoma State as a 5 point favorite.

-We have 3 games between an undefeated team and a 1 loss team this week and all 3 impact their conference races.
-We have 1 loss Florida State at undefeated Clemson. The winner controls their own destiny in the division and will be heavily favored to win the ACC.
-We have undefeated LSU going to 1-loss Alabama as a 7.5 point underdog. The winner will be the big favorite to win the division, but Alabama would still need a little help (need Ole Miss to lose one more time).
-In the American, we have 1 loss Navy playing at undefeated Memphis. With Memphis, Temple, and Houston all undefeated till last week, Navy has been somewhat overlooked, but they have yet to lose a conference game and if they pull off an upset here, their game vs. Houston becomes all the bigger.

-Our remaining 2 winless teams don’t have great odds this week which is not a good sign for the future as it is a lighter week compared to what’s coming. Kansas might well be playing its most winnable remaining game at Texas, but they are still 29 point underdogs. Central Florida meanwhile is a 15 point underdog at Tulsa.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American Athletic: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, MAC: 1, SEC: 1, total: 11
Clemson
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Michigan State
Ohio State
Memphis
Houston
Toledo
Texas Christian
Louisiana State

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American Athletic: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 11
North Carolina
Marshall
Stanford
Alabama
Appalachian State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Navy
Florida
Florida State
Temple

Remaining Winless Teams: American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 0, Sun Belt: 0, total: 2
Central Florida
Kansas

This just bizarre. There are more unbeatens entering November this year than the last 2 years combined.

The BigTen has 3 teams that are 8-0 at the same time for the first time in the 114 year history of the BigTen conference.

Why are there still so many unbeatens? I know some its just dumb luck. Weird that the Big12 none of the top 4 teams have played yet. Mich St was 10 seconds from losing with a 0.1% chance of winning and somehow won.

Still, its just weird.

Florida hasn't clinched the SEC east technically they are 5-1. Vandy is 1-3 so if Vandy wins out, they would be 5-3 and Florida could finish 5-3.

also- the Clemson/FSU game- if Clemson wins, they clinch the division. Clemson would have 6 wins, and FSU/Louisville 2 losses- and Clemson would have head to head on both of them.

(11-02-2015 12:04 PM)goofus Wrote:  The BigTen has 3 teams that are 8-0 at the same time for the first time in the 114 year history of the BigTen conference.

The B1G has not had this many (14) members in its long history, either. When you have unbalanced divisional strength, able to avoid a strong cross-over opponent and keep your bearings until the CCG, it's not so strange.

Either way, at the end there can only be 1 possible undefeated for any conference that has a CCG.

And as noted, the B12 just has all their "good" games at the end of the schedule for multiple teams that happen to be doing well right now.

Usually, it's the SEC with multiple unbeatens around now...it just moved to the other conferences this year.

The only true anomaly, is (was) the number of unbeaten AAC teams.

(11-02-2015 12:04 PM)goofus Wrote:  This just bizarre. There are more unbeatens entering November this year than the last 2 years combined.

The BigTen has 3 teams that are 8-0 at the same time for the first time in the 114 year history of the BigTen conference.

Why are there still so many unbeatens? I know some its just dumb luck. Weird that the Big12 none of the top 4 teams have played yet. Mich St was 10 seconds from losing with a 0.1% chance of winning and somehow won.

Still, its just weird.

Luck is definitely a part of it. But six of the undefeateds are from the Big 12 and Big 10; everyone else is pretty typical # for this time of year. As you say, the Big 12 did backload its schedule; there are 6 games between currently undefeated and 1 loss teams left to play in November. The Big 10 is top heavy and the top teams from each division avoid each other in crossover games.

(11-02-2015 01:05 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 12:04 PM)goofus Wrote:  This just bizarre. There are more unbeatens entering November this year than the last 2 years combined.

The BigTen has 3 teams that are 8-0 at the same time for the first time in the 114 year history of the BigTen conference.

Why are there still so many unbeatens? I know some its just dumb luck. Weird that the Big12 none of the top 4 teams have played yet. Mich St was 10 seconds from losing with a 0.1% chance of winning and somehow won.

Still, its just weird.

Luck is definitely a part of it. But six of the undefeateds are from the Big 12 and Big 10; everyone else is pretty typical # for this time of year. As you say, the Big 12 did backload its schedule; there are 6 games between currently undefeated and 1 loss teams left to play in November. The Big 10 is top heavy and the top teams from each division avoid each other in crossover games.

I wonder how many conferences are backloading their schedules to try and game the CFP selection system. Of course, that may be fairly easy to do in conferences where the strong teams are the same year after year. Not so easy when your teams can be great one year and a bust the next. I think the AAC may have just been lucky that we this year.

(11-02-2015 02:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 01:05 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 12:04 PM)goofus Wrote:  This just bizarre. There are more unbeatens entering November this year than the last 2 years combined.

The BigTen has 3 teams that are 8-0 at the same time for the first time in the 114 year history of the BigTen conference.

Why are there still so many unbeatens? I know some its just dumb luck. Weird that the Big12 none of the top 4 teams have played yet. Mich St was 10 seconds from losing with a 0.1% chance of winning and somehow won.

Still, its just weird.

Luck is definitely a part of it. But six of the undefeateds are from the Big 12 and Big 10; everyone else is pretty typical # for this time of year. As you say, the Big 12 did backload its schedule; there are 6 games between currently undefeated and 1 loss teams left to play in November. The Big 10 is top heavy and the top teams from each division avoid each other in crossover games.

I wonder how many conferences are backloading their schedules to try and game the CFP selection system. Of course, that may be fairly easy to do in conferences where the strong teams are the same year after year. Not so easy when your teams can be great one year and a bust the next. I think the AAC may have just been lucky that we this year.

yeah but I don't know how many folks thought Oklahoma St was going to be as good as they've looked so far. That's what makes the Big 12 so interesting.

Big 12 was fairly predictable this year. Here is the preseason mag consensus:

http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2...ml#big-xii

Texas Tech a bit of a surprise; Texas a bit of a disappointment, but otherwise true to form so far.

But some parts of the schedule are in stone- OU and OSU are going to play the last weekend, and UT is going to alternate with TCU and Tech on Thanksgiving, and it looks like Baylor may alternate TCU and Tech on Thanksgiving weekend the years that those teams aren't at UT. So to some degree this was luck that OU/OSU and TCU/Baylor are all good this year. But the league clearly tried to get good matchups late as well. Sometimes that works, but sometimes you have teams that struggle one year and bounce back the next.

Still, it looks like some serious sorting out is coming, starting this week

TCU-OkSt game will get rid of at least 1 unbeaten

LSU-Bama is a potential elimination game for Bama, potential first loss for LSU

Ditto for FSU-Clemson

Notre Dame-Pitt is interesting.

Lots of good games this week after 2 dull weekends in a row.

(11-02-2015 02:41 PM)goofus Wrote:  Still, it looks like some serious sorting out is coming, starting this week

TCU-OkSt game will get rid of at least 1 unbeaten

LSU-Bama is a potential elimination game for Bama, potential first loss for LSU

Ditto for FSU-Clemson

Notre Dame-Pitt is interesting.

Lots of good games this week after 2 dull weekends in a row.

Tell Georgia Tech and Miami that the last 2 weekends were dull.

(11-02-2015 02:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 02:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 01:05 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 12:04 PM)goofus Wrote:  This just bizarre. There are more unbeatens entering November this year than the last 2 years combined.

The BigTen has 3 teams that are 8-0 at the same time for the first time in the 114 year history of the BigTen conference.

Why are there still so many unbeatens? I know some its just dumb luck. Weird that the Big12 none of the top 4 teams have played yet. Mich St was 10 seconds from losing with a 0.1% chance of winning and somehow won.

Still, its just weird.

Luck is definitely a part of it. But six of the undefeateds are from the Big 12 and Big 10; everyone else is pretty typical # for this time of year. As you say, the Big 12 did backload its schedule; there are 6 games between currently undefeated and 1 loss teams left to play in November. The Big 10 is top heavy and the top teams from each division avoid each other in crossover games.

I wonder how many conferences are backloading their schedules to try and game the CFP selection system. Of course, that may be fairly easy to do in conferences where the strong teams are the same year after year. Not so easy when your teams can be great one year and a bust the next. I think the AAC may have just been lucky that we this year.

yeah but I don't know how many folks thought Oklahoma St was going to be as good as they've looked so far. That's what makes the Big 12 so interesting.

"So far" may be the operative words here. They beat Texas 30-27, K State 36-34, West Virginia 33-26, Kansas 58-10 and Texas Tech 70-53. Only hapless Kansas didn't give them a scare. But even so, I seem to recall more than one talking head (Herbstreit I think was one) who predicted they would win the B12.

Since the BCS started ranking 25 teams in 2003, only 8 schools had more Top 25 appearances than the Cowboys. They were tied with Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Oregon and Virginia Tech. Only Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12 had more. So they've been pretty consistently strong.