On another thread a poster stated
"JK on the clock
JK faces a crucial decision within the next couple of days, and it will tell us much about his directorship. If JK axes Bailiff, I trust him to find a bright young mind (in the mold of Rhoades) to rejuvenate the program and allow Rice to realize its potential. If JK retains Bailiff, it calls into question his evaluation and strategy of how to improve Rice Athletics. At the same time UH is filling its stadium before nationally-televised audiences, Rice struggles to attract literally anyone to games. The crowd today would be a strong signal to any AD that a change is necessary, if only to reintroduce the hope and enthusiasm that things will get better. This is Bailiff's ninth year, and the program is a mess.
I shudder to imagine JK still thinks Bailiff is the right man for the job. I hope the ONLY reason he would retain Bailiff is due to the financial complications of the buyout, but I also expect JK to be wise enough to consider the financial losses associated with retaining Bailiff."
"If JK plans to give Bailiff one more year due to financial issues, it only delays the inevitable, digging Rice into a deeper hole. Bailiff isn't going to do any better than 7-5 next year and probably considerably worse -- "top 20," ha!! Would JK continue to retain Bailiff under the most rosy scenario of 7-5 next year? Bailiff's abilities (or lack of them) should be glaringly obvious by now: he simply isn't a D1-caliber coach."
These Sunday Morning Quarterbacks have no idea of the pressures a modern day AD is facing. Football is only one of the issues facing this executive. I have recently been much more circumspect in my criticism of the "stacked deck" the NCAA has dealt most schools, which impacts greatly the sport I represented the Blue and Grey over 30 years ago. I trust JK's judgment and also understand that coaches don't actually play the game. Otherwise, Coker was the right choice for HC nine years ago given his previous record. Let Rice do things the Rice way, we don't always agree, but discretion with DB will eventually help us retain the coach we need. Coaches want to be treated like everyone else, with dignity and respect, even when things aren't going well.
(10-31-2015 02:43 AM)exowlswimmer Wrote: We cannot outspend the P5 on coaching talent! Maybe instead of hiring "proven" retreads, we move DB into a special advisor position for JK and hire some smart young entrepreneurial football minds (new HC, grad assistants and assistant coaches who would work on their MBA with a Sports Management angle at the Jones School, or other graduate school interests while figuring out how disrupt the game flow and best use the talent we have.)
We know we will lose them eventually to the NY Yankees of College Football but by replenishing and using our assets we could position ourselves to break the cartel and again become relevant.
I thought this part of the OP deserved a little more consideration (I struck the bit about kicking DB upstairs because I didn't think it was critical to the main point and it distracted folks anyway).
I tend to think that the headwinds facing Rice - awful conference, dearth of inspiring opponents, small student body, etc. - are far beyond the ability of any coach to truly overcome. So I don't lay very many of our problems at DB's feet, certainly not the biggest ones.
But I do think that whenever the time comes to replace DB, we ABSOLUTELY need to go outside the box in our next coaching hire. I don't care if the person comes from Div. III, HS, Wall Street, or wherever. Rice is the PERFECT place for a heavily analytics-focused approach to coaching. Get the coach from Pulaski Academy up in Little Rock that never punts, or anyone that embraces a "Moneyball"/"Scorecasting" approach to football. I really believe an experiment in the unconventional could succeed at Rice, or at least generate sorely-needed buzz and buy-in from students and fans, even ones that may not be traditional sports fans (which needless to say we have plenty of in our student body). Frankly, what do we have left to lose if the experiment fails?
I do have two additional thoughts that came to mind:
1. I hear more about advanced analytics driving decision making in baseball, basketball, and other sports more than in football. Is football decision making somehow inherently less capable of being improved than decision making in other sports? Intuitively this would not seem likely, as there are crucial decisions to be made all the time in football (choice of offensive/defensive play, clock management, unlimited substitution possibilities, etc.), but from my perspective as a fan I've heard few data-driven suggestions to improve football decision making beyond "stop automatically punting on 4th down" and "go for two after a TD more often" (which of course have largely not been adopted). Just wondering what others think about this - hopefully it is not the case that football is somehow immune to improvement via analytics. (If so, I guess I will have to take back that slander about Podunk State PE majors, haha.)
2. It was postulated in the book "Scorecasting" that the reason why coaches continue to almost always punt on 4th down despite data seemingly saying you should rarely do so is the psychological phenomenon called
fear of loss. A loss hurts twice as much as a gain feels good, so coaches shy away from doing something unconventional like going for it on most 4th downs even if it is the "right" thing to do because they are irrationally sensitive to the potential negative reactions of fans (and their bosses, like GMs/ADs) should the decision not work out. All this is to say that I hope our AD, when the time comes to replace DB, can somehow overcome fear of loss and make a really unconventional and forward-thinking hire. I am encouraged by the facts that he is a Stanford guy and NOT a football guy (I am even more encouraged by the fact that he is a track/XC guy, as everyone knows these are the smartest of all athletes!
), but I also realistically know that he almost certainly has aspirations beyond Rice and an unconventional experiment that fails would probably doom his career, whereas a conventional coaching hire that fails would not.
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