well with FSU loss and Utah losing by 25 to USC... things starting to shape up a bit...

right now I would say
ACC- Clemson really only shot at getting in.
Big Ten- Ohio St, Michigan St for sure control own destiny. Iowa probably does as well quite frankly.
Big 12- Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St all control own destiny. And have got to say Oklahoma may very well as well if Utah loses tonight
SEC- LSU controls own destiny for sure. Alabama does, if they can get Ole Miss to lose an SEC game.

so I'd say at this moment 10 teams control their own destiny. Pac 12 looks like they get shut out maybe.

now if Clemson loses, the game that could be for all the marbles for the 4th spot- November 28- Notre Dame @ Stanford.

right now with a few games left tonight.
0 loss p5 teams- 9- to include Utah
1 loss p5 teams- 10 - to include Texas A&M
2 loss p5 teams- 12

so only 31 p5 teams with fewer than 3 losses. That's it now.

Notre Dame is a real wild card here. If they win out (beating Stanford, Temple, Pittsburgh), their only loss would be a 2 point loss to undefeated Clemson. Two wins they had earlier this season also had big wins today (USC and Georgia Tech). I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving them out due to their national appeal and following (similar to a one-loss Alabama). The problem with including them is that, with the PAC-12 looking like the outside conference this year, what other conference gets left out?

Everything will sort itself out over the next few weeks when the undefeateds start knocking each other off. Notre Dame, in my opinion, even if they win out, will have hard time controlling their own destiny. They'll need some extra help to ensure a spot.

1. Clemson gets in if they remain undefeated.

These teams get in if they have no more than one loss:
2. Winner of Big Ten (Ohio State, Michigan St, Iowa)
3. Winner of Big XII (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma)
4. Winner of SEC (LSU, Alabama)

If any of those fail to send a 1-loss team, and Notre Dame still only has the one loss, the Irish are in.

Well Notre Dame could have 1 problem as well- if they win out- but Clemson loses a game, but still wins the ACC. Clemson would have the head to head and that would be a killer for Notre Dame.

I wouldn't say Iowa controls own destiny if they lose a game but still win the Big Ten.

Good day for my Irish, USC blew out Utah and likely will finish real strong. Georgia Tech win helps us a lot.

Oh and Oklahoma's only loss was to a team we dominated so I will root for them the rest of the way!!! At least the Big 12 won't have the extra game on us if it comes down to it...

Good day today

If Memphis wins out, they have a strong case. Actually so would Temple with wins over Notre Dame and Penn State.

No team from outside the Power conferences not named Notre Dame is going to get a CFP bid.
Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

If Memphis goes undefeated & Ole Miss wins the SEC while the PAC & B1G champs all have a loss then Memphis should be in.

(10-25-2015 12:24 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  If Memphis goes undefeated & Ole Miss wins the SEC while the PAC & B1G champs all have a loss then Memphis should be in.

You could add the ACC in that group as well along with the Pac 12 and Big Ten. Hell- ACC is so bad they could be the one replaced quite frankly....

(10-25-2015 12:24 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  If Memphis goes undefeated & Ole Miss wins the SEC while the PAC & B1G champs all have a loss then Memphis should be in.

Maybe "should be" as in "ought to be" could be argued, but "should be" as in "likely to be" is what BearcatJerry was referring to.

And he's likely correct. Whether or not Memphis "has a case", the "eye test" will end up favoring four P5 schools over any other school except for Notre Dame.

I would not leave Stanford out of the equation

(10-25-2015 01:33 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  I would not leave Stanford out of the equation

they need help. Clemson losing is their best bet. Sorry- but I don't see Stanford getting in over- Clemson, Ohio St, Michigan St, Iowa, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St, or LSU... Those 8 now IMO totally control their own destiny with no questions asked. Stanford frankly is behind Alabama and Oklahoma as well.

one thing today does is very possibly make it where the ACC will only get Clemson in the NY 6 bowls.. FSU will be extremely borderline with 2 losses, and almost certainly out if they lose to Florida as well.

(10-25-2015 01:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-25-2015 01:33 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  I would not leave Stanford out of the equation

they need help. Clemson losing is their best bet. Sorry- but I don't see Stanford getting in over- Clemson, Ohio St, Michigan St, Iowa, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St, or LSU... Those 8 now IMO totally control their own destiny with no questions asked. Stanford frankly is behind Alabama and Oklahoma as well.

They are playing as well as any team in the country right now

There is still a lot of carnage ahead.

(10-25-2015 01:56 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-25-2015 01:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-25-2015 01:33 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  I would not leave Stanford out of the equation

they need help. Clemson losing is their best bet. Sorry- but I don't see Stanford getting in over- Clemson, Ohio St, Michigan St, Iowa, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St, or LSU... Those 8 now IMO totally control their own destiny with no questions asked. Stanford frankly is behind Alabama and Oklahoma as well.

They are playing as well as any team in the country right now

There is still a lot of carnage ahead.

Part of their thing right now is schedule. last month they have wins over Oregon St, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington(last 3 at home). hardly murderers row there. Lets see how they do at Washington St(can't believe I just typed that with a straight face), at Colorado(another improved team), but then Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame.

Stanford is in the mix if there is carnage. For them- they really need Clemson to lose. If there's carnage in Big 12, but Oklahoma wins out as a result- that doesn't help Stanford much. Same with SEC and Alabama. That's what Stanford is facing right now IMO.

If Clemson loses to Florida State in two weeks then it may very well be all over for the ACC now that GT took FSU out of the race. Clemson also better not look past NC State. I havnt looked at them at all to see what they got but NC State are no strangers to playing the spoiler in the ACC. If Stanford can get a little help, I think they will make it in. They are looking very strong.

Right now, Baylor may have a big QB problem. Oklahoma is looking strong. I don't see Oklahoma State escaping that conference season undefeated. They have to go to Texas Tech and then they still have Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma on their schedule. They could easily end up with two losses from that line up...at least. Baylor's schedule looks just as rough and Briles has said that his QB will be out for awhile. Baylor is a big question mark right now.

The SEC West could still go haywire before the end. Florida looks pretty good to make it out of the East. Will they make it with just the one loss though?

What we do know at this point is that it is still too early to predict.

Don't forget that Temple, Memphis and Houston are no mid-majors since they have history on their side.
With Utah losing and Florida State as well, it started to clear a path for those three schools.
The three unbeaten Big 12 teams could stumble and lose a game.
If Alabama beats LSU? It would be a mess for the CFP to choose. Does Memphis if they don't lose? They do have the case to be in ahead of Alabama if they win the SEC.

Ole Miss still has to play LSU, so if Alabama beats LSU and LSU beats Ole Miss, then Alabama controls its own destiny. Florida is probably in if it wins the SEC with only one loss, but it would help to avenge its to LSU in the SEC Championship Game.

If Ole Miss wins the SEC, then the SEC is out, unless if the committee picks an 11-1 Alabama over an 11-1 Baylor/TCU/Oklahoma State. The nightmare for the Big 12 is that all three of them finish at 11-1, which may drag them all out of the Top 4.

Oklahoma is still in the hunt as will.

(10-24-2015 09:59 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Notre Dame is a real wild card here. If they win out (beating Stanford, Temple, Pittsburgh), their only loss would be a 2 point loss to undefeated Clemson. Two wins they had earlier this season also had big wins today (USC and Georgia Tech).

Yes, not only did USC and Georgia Tech beat undefeated, top-10 teams, those others you mention, Pitt, Temple, and Stanford, are all ranked and all won as well. That means Notre Dame not only gets a spotlight game versus Temple (!!!?) next week (ESPN GameDay is going there) but then another with Stanford as well.

The way I see it, ND needs to edge out the ACC champ. All they really need is for FSU to beat Clemson and thus win the ACC East. A Clemson that isn't ACC champ will not get in over ND, nor will FSU.