Just read that on Facebook:

"Hurricane Patricia has now become the strongest HURRICANE ever recorded in history packing deadly category 5 catastrophic sustained winds of 200mph and unreal gusts of up to 245mph with a minimum pressure of 880mb!!!!!!!!!!! Basically a huge EF5 tornado. Unprecedented."

Great concern for those in it's path.

but...

Just to be clear, we've only begun somewhat accurately measuring Hurricanes in the last few decades and even just a few decades ago, the measurements were somewhat spotty. Calamity sells thus the media use terms like "recorded history" hoping that most folks don't realize that means...well, recorded history.

Nevertheless, it does appear to be a whopper.

Of course the media will dramatize anything they can. "Superstorm Sandy" was a strong Cat1, weak Cat2 and the national media lost their fing minds. We barely stock up on beer for that kind of storm.
That being said, Patrica is a monster and hope the people in the path are staying safe.

many poor people will die.....

it's a sad fact....

it's coming from the atlantic soon.....

this shite is just starting.....

better get immune to it and prepare if you can when it hits your part of the world.....

such is......

(10-23-2015 05:55 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  Great concern for those in it's path.

but...

Just to be clear, we've only begun somewhat accurately measuring Hurricanes in the last few decades and even just a few decades ago, the measurements were somewhat spotty. Calamity sells thus the media use terms like "recorded history" hoping that most folks don't realize that means...well, recorded history.

Nevertheless, it does appear to be a whopper.

That is a massive hurricane with tornado force winds. Have there ever been storms like that? Undoubtedly, yes. But it is rare to even get a category 5, let alone one that far over the required windspeed. If the windspeed breakdown carried past Cat 5 that would be what like a Cat 8 or 9, with the gusts?

(10-23-2015 06:03 PM)ragin4u Wrote:  Of course the media will dramatize anything they can. "Superstorm Sandy" was a strong Cat1, weak Cat2 and the national media lost their fing minds. We barely stock up on beer for that kind of storm.
That being said, Patrica is a monster and hope the people in the path are staying safe.

Sandy was the second-most expensive hurricane in U.S. history, doing $75 billion in damage. It caused 233 deaths.

This is where people get too hung up on wind speed as the alpha and omega of determining a storm's ability to wreak havoc. Yes, it did its damage to the East Coast as a Cat 1 hurricane/extratropical storm. It also had tropical-storm force winds 550 miles away from the center, and a storm surge more befitting a Category 3 or 4 storm. To say nothing of the heavy rain -- AND snow. See also: Hurricane Ike, which was not a "major" hurricane but it moved water like it.

Sandy absolutely earned its hype.

(10-23-2015 06:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(10-23-2015 06:03 PM)ragin4u Wrote:  Of course the media will dramatize anything they can. "Superstorm Sandy" was a strong Cat1, weak Cat2 and the national media lost their fing minds. We barely stock up on beer for that kind of storm.
That being said, Patrica is a monster and hope the people in the path are staying safe.

Sandy was the second-most expensive hurricane in U.S. history, doing $75 billion in damage. It caused 233 deaths.

This is where people get too hung up on wind speed as the alpha and omega of determining a storm's ability to wreak havoc. Yes, it did its damage to the East Coast as a Cat 1 hurricane/extratropical storm. It also had tropical-storm force winds 550 miles away from the center, and a storm surge more befitting a Category 3 or 4 storm. To say nothing of the heavy rain -- AND snow. See also: Hurricane Ike, which was not a "major" hurricane but it moved water like it.

Sandy absolutely earned its hype.

Think your death toll is a little high, closer to 110 I think, still tragic. No debate that Sandy was devastating but it was mainly because it raked through densely populated areas. Nor'easters can have the same effect. If Rita or Katrina would have followed the same path it would have been biblical. My comment was more to show that the media will jump on anything to hype a story, not to downplay the impact. And my comment still stands, we probably wouldn't pick up the picnic table for Sandy.

That's a scary as **** storm. Having grown up hoping we get them because I surf and would chase the swell up and down the coast. I've seen some of the damage up close, nothing like katrina but enough to respect mother nature. A 3 is my max now that I have a family to deal with. Anything more than a 3 and I'm out. I can't fathom how devastating a 5 would be to even a developed area on the east coast let alone the poor areas in Mexico's west coast.

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Guys this is likely to be catastrophic on a scale that is unimaginable.

Reports that I'm receiving are the Mexicans aren't taking this serious.

Imagine F5 tornado that is 7 to 10 miles wide and will carry that force as far as a hundred miles inland as it eventually weakens. A lot of people are going to die this weekend. It's difficult to sit here and watch this play out.

The area where it is making landfall is a mountainous region up against the coast and the population density is not that high on the coastal side of the mountain range. Yes, there will be damage and loss of life but the mountain range is going to have a huge affect on the weakening of this hurricane as it moves inland. Rain amounts will be huge, regardless.

On this map, directly north/northeast of the word "ocean" in Pacific Ocean is where the hurricane is making landfall. In essence, where it landed is likely the best place it could land.

Still something like 2.5 million people in its path

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comment..._has_gone/

If Patricia survives the mountains in Mexico and manages to cross over to the Gulf, it will also be the strongest Pacific-Atlantic crossover hurricane in recorded history. Highly improbable, but it could happen if she makes it over quick before she falls apart. Even crazier if she restrengthens in the gulf and becomes one of those zombie hurricanes.

There was no overhyping this hurricane. You can't overhype 200 mph winds. This was an absolute monster in every sense of the word. However, thankfully, it appears that the storm weakened pretty steadily in the few hours before landfall due to an eyewall replacement cycle. The damage will still be extensive, but the worst case scenario was avoided. I still fear the smaller towns with poor building codes could be gone.

(10-23-2015 09:39 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  If Patricia survives the mountains in Mexico and manages to cross over to the Gulf, it will also be the strongest Pacific-Atlantic crossover hurricane in recorded history. Highly improbable, but it could happen if she makes it over quick before she falls apart. Even crazier if she restrengthens in the gulf and becomes one of those zombie hurricanes.

If it were crossing further south and making a beeline for the Bay of Campeche, there'd be a chance. But it's going into the teeth of 10,000-foot mountains, and a lot of them. Some of the models do take the upper and possibly middle-level circulation of Patricia into the Gulf, but by all accounts it would be a non-tropical low. The low-level circulation will be shredded within 36 hours at most.

(10-23-2015 05:55 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  Great concern for those in it's path.

but...

Just to be clear, we've only begun somewhat accurately measuring Hurricanes in the last few decades and even just a few decades ago, the measurements were somewhat spotty. Calamity sells thus the media use terms like "recorded history" hoping that most folks don't realize that means...well, recorded history.

Nevertheless, it does appear to be a whopper.

man has been using barometers since the 1640's. man has been keeping reliable records of hurricanes with barometric readings since 1851.

(10-23-2015 10:03 PM)bladhmadh Wrote:  

(10-23-2015 05:55 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  Great concern for those in it's path.

but...

Just to be clear, we've only begun somewhat accurately measuring Hurricanes in the last few decades and even just a few decades ago, the measurements were somewhat spotty. Calamity sells thus the media use terms like "recorded history" hoping that most folks don't realize that means...well, recorded history.

Nevertheless, it does appear to be a whopper.

man has been using barometers since the 1640's. man has been keeping reliable records of hurricanes with barometric readings since 1851.

But in terms of hurricane history, they've only been reliably tracking the strength of all hurricanes in the past few decades between hurricane hunter aircraft and satellite imagery. Before then, you had to rely on ship and landfall reports, and rarely were they in the strongest part of the storm.

So for all we know, there's been a 220 mph, 850 mb somewhere in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific, but because it never made landfall at that strength, we'll have no way of knowing if that storm exists in the record books at a weaker storm, or if at all.

This is good news...
"Patricia made landfall as a Category 5 storm at around 6:30 p.m. local time and caused some flooding and landslides as it went through a relatively unpopulated area of Mexico, authorities said. The storm’s center made landfall in an area of Jalisco state with few population centers. The next biggest city, Manzanilla, was just outside the extent of the storm’s hurricane-force winds."

That scene was such a great one on the power of the storms.

(10-23-2015 06:03 PM)ragin4u Wrote:  Of course the media will dramatize anything they can. "Superstorm Sandy" was a strong Cat1, weak Cat2 and the national media lost their fing minds. We barely stock up on beer for that kind of storm.
That being said, Patrica is a monster and hope the people in the path are staying safe.

Go tell Jersey Shore and folks in Queens that Sandy wasn't a big deal...

(10-23-2015 06:03 PM)ragin4u Wrote:  Of course the media will dramatize anything they can. "Superstorm Sandy" was a strong Cat1, weak Cat2 and the national media lost their fing minds. We barely stock up on beer for that kind of storm.
That being said, Patrica is a monster and hope the people in the path are staying safe.

That's because it hit New York City. How often do hurricanes hit Long Island or NYC?