The status in the division for Houston and Navy right now are meaningless. Those teams fully control their own destiny in terms of winning the division. Both are sure as hell ahead of 2 loss teams.

(10-20-2015 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The status in the division for Houston and Navy right now are meaningless. Those teams fully control their own destiny in terms of winning the division. Both are sure as hell ahead of 2 loss teams.

I mean honestly Houston probably has the best chance of the AAC teams to go undefeated. They get Vandy, Cincy, Memphis, and Navy at home and their only 2 road games left are @UCF and @UCONN. Louisville and Vandy would pretty much be on par if not better than Toledo's 2 P5 wins and then they'd have to get victories over a potentially top 15 Memphis team and who knows potentially a ranked Temple in the conference championship game. They do all that they'll unquestionably get the access bowl. The only difference between Houston and Temple/Memphis is I think Temple/Memphis would have an outside shot of making the playoff if things broke right while Houston just wouldn't have the SOS to get there.

(10-20-2015 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  One big change to keep in mind this year is we now have CCGs in all conferences except the Sunbelt. This is relevant as we are only taking conference champions for this spot and a team from a weaker division winning can knock a conference out. Let's say East Carolina does great and wins the east while Houston finishes 11-1 and Memphis 12-0 (neither play East Carolina in the reguar season). If East Carolina wins the CCG, they are the only ones the committee can consider for the automatic bid even though East Carolina would at best be 10-3. In that scenario, a 2 loss Mountain West champion or 1 loss team from another conferences becomes much more likely to get in.

Its fair to say the AAC has the most contenders for the autobid but in the end it doesn't matter because only 2 schools can play in that AAC championship game.

The way to lock up the autobid for the AAC is to have 2 undefeated divisional winners going into the CCG while every other G5 team has at least 1 loss.

The AAC has that going right now with Memphis/Houston vs. Temple for a potential CCG.

Navy has only 1 loss and is playing in the strongest G5 conference but in reality they are far removed from the conversation. If they were the leading team of the AAC with that record this season they would be no more attractive than Appalachian State for getting that autobid which isn't very much.

(10-20-2015 11:33 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The status in the division for Houston and Navy right now are meaningless. Those teams fully control their own destiny in terms of winning the division. Both are sure as hell ahead of 2 loss teams.

I mean honestly Houston probably has the best chance of the AAC teams to go undefeated. They get Vandy, Cincy, Memphis, and Navy at home and their only 2 road games left are @UCF and @UCONN. Louisville and Vandy would pretty much be on par if not better than Toledo's 2 P5 wins and then they'd have to get victories over a potentially top 15 Memphis team and who knows potentially a ranked Temple in the conference championship game. They do all that they'll unquestionably get the access bowl. The only difference between Houston and Temple/Memphis is I think Temple/Memphis would have an outside shot of making the playoff if things broke right while Houston just wouldn't have the SOS to get there.

Temple I think is the team you want to root for in the playoff race because they could upset a higher ranked Memphis team and a Top 10 Notre Dame potentially.

It's not the #1 ranked team in the conference its the #2 because they can defeat the #1 team and get a mega boost for that.

An undefeated Memphis vs. Temple CGG would have both schools right around the Top 10 with the winner picking up a resume booster. If the winner finishes like only 6th it will fuel the fire to expand to an 8 team playoff.

Navy is really nowhere right now in the access bowl conversation.

1) They have 1 loss.
2) They don't have any P5 wins.
3) They haven't played a ranked team outside of Notre Dame who beat them badly.
4) Memphis and Houston are higher ranked in their own division.

(10-20-2015 12:39 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Navy is really nowhere right now in the access bowl conversation.

1) They have 1 loss.
2) They don't have any P5 wins.
3) They haven't played a ranked team outside of Notre Dame who beat them badly.
4) Memphis and Houston are higher ranked in their own division.

If Navy wins out- they would get ranked wins over Memphis and Houston, and then quite possibly Temple. The ONLY team who could beat them out is Toledo, if Toledo wins out.

(10-20-2015 12:37 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 11:33 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The status in the division for Houston and Navy right now are meaningless. Those teams fully control their own destiny in terms of winning the division. Both are sure as hell ahead of 2 loss teams.

I mean honestly Houston probably has the best chance of the AAC teams to go undefeated. They get Vandy, Cincy, Memphis, and Navy at home and their only 2 road games left are @UCF and @UCONN. Louisville and Vandy would pretty much be on par if not better than Toledo's 2 P5 wins and then they'd have to get victories over a potentially top 15 Memphis team and who knows potentially a ranked Temple in the conference championship game. They do all that they'll unquestionably get the access bowl. The only difference between Houston and Temple/Memphis is I think Temple/Memphis would have an outside shot of making the playoff if things broke right while Houston just wouldn't have the SOS to get there.

Temple I think is the team you want to root for in the playoff race because they could upset a higher ranked Memphis team and a Top 10 Notre Dame potentially.

It's not the #1 ranked team in the conference its the #2 because they can defeat the #1 team and get a mega boost for that.

An undefeated Memphis vs. Temple CGG would have both schools right around the Top 10 with the winner picking up a resume booster. If the winner finishes like only 6th it will fuel the fire to expand to an 8 team playoff.

The key for any team competing for the playoff is Temple finding a way to beat Notre Dame. Memphis and Temple also play in the regular season so there's no way for them to both be undefeated in the championship game, but if both were 10-0 when they face each other on Nov 21st that would be a mega match up. Memphis has a really tough road to get to that game undefeated though playing Navy and then @Houston right before it. It's possible that Memphis could have a 3 game stretch of games against a 6-1 and receiving votes Navy, a 9-0 and top 15-20 ranked Houston, and then a 10-0 and top 10-15 ranked Temple. If they were to get through that gauntlet it would be hard to say they don't deserve playoff consideration.