Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
Teams with 1st Loss: 4
Oklahoma
Northwestern
Navy
California
Teams with 2nd Loss: 9
Southern California
North Carolina State
Illinois
Indiana
Georgia
West Virginia
Kansas State
Missouri
Miami (FL)
Syracuse
Teams with 1st Win: 0
None
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 33.59% (43 of 128)
Week 2: 40.00% (34 of 85)
Week 3: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 4: 14.71% (5 of 34)
Week 5: 31.03% (9 of 29)
Week 6: 20% (4 of 20)
Note: I will be starting online classes in November. I’ll probably be OK to continue doing this, but probably won’t be posting much more than lists and quick computations at that point.
Number of Possible Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 7
- Toledo, Utah, Temple/Memphis/Houston, Baylor/TCU/Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Michigan State/Iowa, LSU/Texas A&M/Florida*(/*) Florida State*/Clemson (note: Florida State and Florida cannot both finish unbeaten).
Week 6 Thoughts: The theme for this week among our top teams was simply to survive. Several of our most highly rated undefeated and 1-loss teams were down or in very close games late. They mostly all came back or held on though. The one big exception was #10 undefeated Oklahoma losing the Red River Shootout to Texas at the Cotton Bowl.
-None of our winless teams managed to grab their first win this week. Of particular note, North Texas lost 66-7 to I-AA Portland State.
-We are down to 12 undefeated teams from power 5 conferences and 13 1-loss teams plus Notre Dame. Odds are that at least 3 and probably all 4 of our eventual teams in the Orange and Cotton Bowls are among those 26 teams.
-The PAC-12 is the first of the power 5 conferences down to a single unbeaten. Utah’s victory over Cal leaves it as the only team in the conference with likely compete control of their destiny.
-Florida and Michigan both seem to be very much rebounded this year. Florida has an effective 2 game lead in the SEC East at 4-0 in conference (Kentucky is 2-1, but lost to Florida). They have a big game vs. LSU this week. Michigan soundly defeated a previously unbeaten Northwestern.
-The Big 12 has been fun to watch with a lot of good games.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeateds this week. Florida travels to LSU. Florida becomes extremely likely to make it to Atlanta with a win (they could afford to lose to Georgia if they still win vs. South Carolina and Vanderbilt).
-We have a lot of other big action among our undefeated teams this week.
-Undefeated Memphis hosts 1-loss Ole Miss. Both need the game. Ole Miss is still in the national championship running and Memphis controls its own destiny for a New Years 6 bowl.
-Undefeated Iowa plays at 1-loss Northwestern. This could be a big game for divisional lead. Iowa has already beat Wisconsin and getting past Northwestern would go a long way toward getting them to Indianapolis.
-Undefeated Michigan State goes to Ann Arbor to play 1-loss Michigan this week. Michigan is favored in this game showing just how much changes in a year. Both Ohio State and Michigan State were pre-season top teams, both have won their first 6 games, but both also have looked very flawed in doing so. This will be a big test to see if pre-season hype can turn into something.
-Undefeated Texas A&M hosts 1-loss Alabama. Alabama is probably fine with its 1 loss, but a 2nd one will put them in a very rough spot to go back to Atlanta. Texas A&M meanwhile will firmly jump into national title talk with a win. Fortunately for them, Alabama is favored and not an underdog like it was vs. Georgia.
-Undefeated Ohio State hosts 1-loss Penn State. Penn State has rebounded nicely after a disappointing start of the season loss to Temple (and an ugly game vs. Army). They beat Indiana far more convincingly than the Buckeyes. Ohio State, like Michigan State, was rated highly and has won out so far, but has played very disappointingly thus far. Beating Penn State would help smooth over other games.
-Undefeated Utah is hosting 2-loss Arizona State. The PAC-12 South is still pretty wide open. Arizona State’s loss to USC is looking worse as time goes though and they desperately need to win this to stay in. Utah meanwhile has gained tremendous national momentum so far this season with a good list of wins. It could all drop fairly quickly with a loss though.
-No great odds for any of the winless teams this week. The best chance for a win is probably Wyoming which hosts Nevada this week and is a 7 point underdog.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American Athletic: 3, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, MAC: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, total: 16
Clemson
Florida State
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Iowa
Michigan State
Ohio State
Memphis
Houston
Toledo
Texas Christian
Utah
Florida
Louisiana State
Temple
One-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total: 21
North Carolina
Duke
Pittsburgh
Penn State
Michigan
Western Kentucky
Marshal
Boise State
Stanford
Kentucky
Alabama
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
Ohio
Ole Miss
UCLA
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Northwestern
Navy
California
Remaining Winless Teams: American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 5
Central Florida
Kansas
North Texas
Wyoming
New Mexico State
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