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Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #1
Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
Teams with 1st Loss: 4
Oklahoma
Northwestern
Navy
California

Teams with 2nd Loss: 9
Southern California
North Carolina State
Illinois
Indiana
Georgia
West Virginia
Kansas State
Missouri
Miami (FL)
Syracuse

Teams with 1st Win: 0
None

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 33.59% (43 of 128)
Week 2: 40.00% (34 of 85)
Week 3: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 4: 14.71% (5 of 34)
Week 5: 31.03% (9 of 29)
Week 6: 20% (4 of 20)

Note: I will be starting online classes in November. I’ll probably be OK to continue doing this, but probably won’t be posting much more than lists and quick computations at that point.

Number of Possible Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 7
- Toledo, Utah, Temple/Memphis/Houston, Baylor/TCU/Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Michigan State/Iowa, LSU/Texas A&M/Florida*(/*) Florida State*/Clemson (note: Florida State and Florida cannot both finish unbeaten).

Week 6 Thoughts: The theme for this week among our top teams was simply to survive. Several of our most highly rated undefeated and 1-loss teams were down or in very close games late. They mostly all came back or held on though. The one big exception was #10 undefeated Oklahoma losing the Red River Shootout to Texas at the Cotton Bowl.

-None of our winless teams managed to grab their first win this week. Of particular note, North Texas lost 66-7 to I-AA Portland State.

-We are down to 12 undefeated teams from power 5 conferences and 13 1-loss teams plus Notre Dame. Odds are that at least 3 and probably all 4 of our eventual teams in the Orange and Cotton Bowls are among those 26 teams.

-The PAC-12 is the first of the power 5 conferences down to a single unbeaten. Utah’s victory over Cal leaves it as the only team in the conference with likely compete control of their destiny.

-Florida and Michigan both seem to be very much rebounded this year. Florida has an effective 2 game lead in the SEC East at 4-0 in conference (Kentucky is 2-1, but lost to Florida). They have a big game vs. LSU this week. Michigan soundly defeated a previously unbeaten Northwestern.

-The Big 12 has been fun to watch with a lot of good games.

Week 7 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeateds this week. Florida travels to LSU. Florida becomes extremely likely to make it to Atlanta with a win (they could afford to lose to Georgia if they still win vs. South Carolina and Vanderbilt).

-We have a lot of other big action among our undefeated teams this week.
-Undefeated Memphis hosts 1-loss Ole Miss. Both need the game. Ole Miss is still in the national championship running and Memphis controls its own destiny for a New Years 6 bowl.
-Undefeated Iowa plays at 1-loss Northwestern. This could be a big game for divisional lead. Iowa has already beat Wisconsin and getting past Northwestern would go a long way toward getting them to Indianapolis.
-Undefeated Michigan State goes to Ann Arbor to play 1-loss Michigan this week. Michigan is favored in this game showing just how much changes in a year. Both Ohio State and Michigan State were pre-season top teams, both have won their first 6 games, but both also have looked very flawed in doing so. This will be a big test to see if pre-season hype can turn into something.
-Undefeated Texas A&M hosts 1-loss Alabama. Alabama is probably fine with its 1 loss, but a 2nd one will put them in a very rough spot to go back to Atlanta. Texas A&M meanwhile will firmly jump into national title talk with a win. Fortunately for them, Alabama is favored and not an underdog like it was vs. Georgia.
-Undefeated Ohio State hosts 1-loss Penn State. Penn State has rebounded nicely after a disappointing start of the season loss to Temple (and an ugly game vs. Army). They beat Indiana far more convincingly than the Buckeyes. Ohio State, like Michigan State, was rated highly and has won out so far, but has played very disappointingly thus far. Beating Penn State would help smooth over other games.
-Undefeated Utah is hosting 2-loss Arizona State. The PAC-12 South is still pretty wide open. Arizona State’s loss to USC is looking worse as time goes though and they desperately need to win this to stay in. Utah meanwhile has gained tremendous national momentum so far this season with a good list of wins. It could all drop fairly quickly with a loss though.

-No great odds for any of the winless teams this week. The best chance for a win is probably Wyoming which hosts Nevada this week and is a 7 point underdog.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American Athletic: 3, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, MAC: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, total: 16
Clemson
Florida State
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Iowa
Michigan State
Ohio State
Memphis
Houston
Toledo
Texas Christian
Utah
Florida
Louisiana State
Temple

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total: 21
North Carolina
Duke
Pittsburgh
Penn State
Michigan
Western Kentucky
Marshal
Boise State
Stanford
Kentucky
Alabama
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
Ohio
Ole Miss
UCLA
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Northwestern
Navy
California

Remaining Winless Teams: American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 5
Central Florida
Kansas
North Texas
Wyoming
New Mexico State
10-11-2015 09:16 PM
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perimeterpost Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
Zero and one loss G5 teams-

5-0 Houston
5-0 Memphis
5-0 Temple
5-0 Toledo

5-1 Boise St
5-1 Marshall
5-1 Ohio
5-1 Western Ky

4-1 App State
4-1 Georgia So
4-1 Navy

notes: App St, GaSo, Navy and Ohio only teams on list without P5 win. Marshall only team on list with loss to G5.
10-11-2015 10:10 PM
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ohio1317 Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
I really the committee could go a lot of ways for the Group of 5 spot as things stand now. I think the only really set thing is that an undefeated American champ who also looks dominant probably gets it. That's asking a lot though.

The most interesting and fairly plausible scenario to me is if Toledo alone finishes unbeaten and you have a 1-loss American champ and 1-loss Boise State. I could see any of those three getting the bid and a lot of it will come down to how the three look at the end of the year. I think Toledo would have a definite edge, but also can't afford too many games where things are close (similar to Florida State last year, but with only one spot instead of 4). If it looks like they were skating by at the end, that's where someone else could grab it.
10-11-2015 10:17 PM
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C2__ Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
It's gonna be a long year at UCF, UNT and Kansas. Maybe the coaching change sparks UNT though.
10-12-2015 02:14 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
I think the very plausible scenario is Houston also finishing undefeated. They have 3 tough games- but all 3 are at home. Should be a favorite in all 3 of them. I really think if Houston is 13-0, going to be nearly impossible for Toledo or Boise to pass them.
10-12-2015 02:28 AM
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C2__ Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
4 tough games potentially if you include Temple (major assumption but work with me here).
10-12-2015 03:17 AM
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perimeterpost Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
Assuming the zero and one loss G5 teams keep winning, here are the key conference matchups remaining-

10/22 GA Southern @ App State

11/7 Navy @ Memphis
11/14 Memphis @ Houston
11/21 Memphis @ Temple
11/27 Navy @ Houston

11/27 Marshall @ Western KY

CUSA and Sun Belt are at a disadvantage because their top 2 teams already have 1 loss each and will face each other in the regular season so a head to head in the championship game will be diluted. The best they can hope for is that whomever wins the regular season matchup also wins the championship match. Both CUSA teams have P5 wins but neither of the SBC teams do.

For the MAC the best case scenario is that both teams on the list win out and an 11-0 Toledo faces an 11-1 Ohio in their conference championship game. This is also best case scenario for Toledo to earn the Access Bowl bid. Ohio's lack of a P5 win won't put them above the other 1 loss G5 teams that do.

For the AAC its a little more complicated, because Memphis plays both Temple and Houston in the regular season. It would be best if Temple and Houston win out so the conference champ doesn't have their wins diluted by playing the same team twice. Those 3 teams each have a big P5 game remaining but a close loss shouldn't be too much of a factor unless Toledo wins out, then it could get tricky. Navy is the dark horse, they could potentially beat all 3 teams but a lack of a P5 win might be a factor.

Lots of football left to play but there's a lot of potential drama building up.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2015 11:21 AM by perimeterpost.)
10-12-2015 11:19 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
(10-12-2015 02:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the very plausible scenario is Houston also finishing undefeated. They have 3 tough games- but all 3 are at home. Should be a favorite in all 3 of them. I really think if Houston is 13-0, going to be nearly impossible for Toledo or Boise to pass them.
But at what odds to win each? Three independent 60% chances is a 21.6% chance of a hat-trick.

(10-12-2015 11:19 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  For the MAC the best case scenario is that both teams on the list win out and an 11-0 Toledo faces an 11-1 Ohio in their conference championship game. This is also best case scenario for Toledo to earn the Access Bowl bid. Ohio's lack of a P5 win won't put them above the other 1 loss G5 teams that do.
What makes this particularly plausible for the MAC is that it involves OhioU doing well but still managing to avoid winning the MAC FB championship.
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2015 05:00 AM by BruceMcF.)
10-13-2015 04:58 AM
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
(10-11-2015 10:10 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  Zero and one loss G5 teams-

5-0 Houston
5-0 Memphis
5-0 Temple
5-0 Toledo

5-1 Boise St
5-1 Marshall
5-1 Ohio
5-1 Western Ky

4-1 App State
4-1 Georgia So
4-1 Navy

notes: App St, GaSo, Navy and Ohio only teams on list without P5 win. Marshall only team on list with loss to G5.

16 unbeaten total. At this point last year I believe there were only 10-TCU, Baylor, FSU, Marshall, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Miss. St., Auburn, Notre Dame and Arizona. By week 8 it was down to 6 and 4 the week after that. By week 10 it was down to FSU, Miss. St. and Marshall.
10-13-2015 08:34 PM
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splitstud Offline
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RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
(10-13-2015 04:58 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  [quote='stever20' pid='12491837' dateline='1444634913'] I think the very plausible scenario is Houston also finishing undefeated. They have 3 tough games- but all 3 are at home. Should be a favorite in all 3 of them. I really think if Houston is 13-0, going to be nearly impossible for Toledo or Boise to pass them.
But at what odds to win each? Three independent 60% chances is a 21.6% chance of a hat-trick.

Exactly correct. This is why going undefeated is so difficult. And it would be generous to give UH 60% chances in all of those games, particularly since we're down 3 starting O Linemen, from a unit that is not very deep to begin with. I like this team, and Coach Herman is a genius, but that's too much of a handicap in my opinion.
10-14-2015 03:12 PM
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