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Fun with Sagarin
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MemOwl Offline
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Post: #1
Fun with Sagarin
Spent some time with current and archive Sagarin rankings this morning. Here are a few musings

1. If results go purely to form, Army will be our best win this year.
2. Wagner is probably the worst team that Rice has played during the lifetimes of anyone on this board. they currently sit 12th from the bottom of FCS
3. La Tech is rated much closer to WKU than they are to Rice. Will require some significant improvements in planning and execution to be competitive.

Taking a bit of a longer term view, our current rating of 123 has many unattractive optical features. We are below SMU and below 19 FCS schools.

Even though it is possible, perhaps likely, that we will win 6 games, it will be difficult to move the rating unless we beat La Tech.

For comparisons sake, here is where we finished in some notable years during the current regime

2007--152
2008--48
2009-144
2012--83
2013--69
2014--69

Some possible conclusions from this data

1. We have never really come close to being as good as we were in 2008
2. The computer's view is that this season is tracking closer to a 2-10 or 3-9 type season than to a 7-6 with a bowl win. Likely reflects some combination of schedule dilution and blowout losses
3. The computer is agnostic between winning CUSA and getting blown out by p5 or not winning it and having a convincing win over a like rated G5 team.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2015 09:42 AM by MemOwl.)
10-11-2015 09:39 AM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Fun with Sagarin
(10-11-2015 09:39 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  3. La Tech is rated much closer to WKU than they are to Rice. Will require some significant improvements in planning and execution to be competitive.

In the pre-season prediction thread, I predicted that Rice would lose to Baylor and WKU. The fact that Rice was totally embarrassed and was not remotely competitive against either was disheartening. For me to feel decent about this season, Rice needs to beat LaTech (and of course win all the games against the dregs of FBS football). That gives Rice 1 win against a decent CUSA team plus another shot at WKU for the CUSA title. If Rice doesn't at least win CUSA West, I will personally consider it a sign of plateau, rather than possibly incremental improvement.***

Of course, my comments also depend on how Rice's opponents finish. I thought WKU was a top-25 team heading into the season and Baylor a top-10 team. If that proves accurate, then I will feel more at peace with the earlier losses ... so long as Rice is ready to play in a possible 2nd game against WKU and doesn't cough up a game against a crappy team.

***(and before Walt or GoodOwl or someone else tells me for the millionth time why we have plateaued (not competitive with anyone in top 75! Crushed by anyone in the top 50, let alone top 25! Only succeed by beating up dregs of college football!), I've heard it before and I understand your position. I trust the plethora of computer rankings available more than your eyes or your opinion. If Rice finishes with a Sagarin and Massey that continue to improve the trend (and remember I like to combine multiple years, rather than looking at single seasons in isolation), then IMHO, we haven't plateaued. I trust the computers more than you or me or anyone else.)
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2015 11:22 AM by mrbig.)
10-11-2015 11:21 AM
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cr11owl Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Fun with Sagarin
(10-11-2015 11:21 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(10-11-2015 09:39 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  3. La Tech is rated much closer to WKU than they are to Rice. Will require some significant improvements in planning and execution to be competitive.

In the pre-season prediction thread, I predicted that Rice would lose to Baylor and WKU. The fact that Rice was totally embarrassed and was not remotely competitive against either was disheartening. For me to feel decent about this season, Rice needs to beat LaTech (and of course win all the games against the dregs of FBS football). That gives Rice 1 win against a decent CUSA team plus another shot at WKU for the CUSA title. If Rice doesn't at least win CUSA West, I will personally consider it a sign of plateau, rather than possibly incremental improvement.***

Of course, my comments also depend on how Rice's opponents finish. I thought WKU was a top-25 team heading into the season and Baylor a top-10 team. If that proves accurate, then I will feel more at peace with the earlier losses ... so long as Rice is ready to play in a possible 2nd game against WKU and doesn't cough up a game against a crappy team.

***(and before Walt or GoodOwl or someone else tells me for the millionth time why we have plateaued (not competitive with anyone in top 75! Crushed by anyone in the top 50, let alone top 25! Only succeed by beating up dregs of college football!), I've heard it before and I understand your position. I trust the plethora of computer rankings available more than your eyes or your opinion. If Rice finishes with a Sagarin and Massey that continue to improve the trend (and remember I like to combine multiple years, rather than looking at single seasons in isolation), then IMHO, we haven't plateaued. I trust the computers more than you or me or anyone else.)

04-bow +1
10-11-2015 11:28 AM
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MerseyOwl Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Fun with Sagarin
After crushing FAU, Rice 's ESPN Football Power Index rating has leaped from 103 to 102. At this pace I figure Rice will need to win c30 more games this year to reach a mark of 68 given the remaining strength of schedule is rated at 125 of 128. This would provide indisputable evidence that the program hasn't plateaued assuming the ESPN rating methodology is similar to Sagarin.

(Unfortunately based on Rice 's current upward trajectory I'll be on the wrong side of 100 or pushing up Johnson grass before they reach the top 25.)

Inexplicably FAU's rating rose from 109(?) to 105.
10-11-2015 12:45 PM
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