Teams with 1st loss: 5
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Ohio U.
Arizona
Missouri

Teams with 2nd loss: 26
Cincinnati
Oregon State
Georgia Tech
Brigham Young
Connecticut
Southern Miss
Wake Forest
Northern Illinois
Auburn
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Washington
Middle Tennessee
(Charlotte)
Tennessee
Virginia Tech
Buffalo
Old Dominion
Rice
Maryland
Florida International
Arizona State
Oregon
Ball State
Hawaii
South Alabama

Teams with 1st win: 4
Florida Atlantic
Army
Louisville
UNLV


Note on a few previous mistakes: I still had both Washington State and Colorado on undefeated list. Both lost week 1. I’m guessing these were in late games and I just forgot to add them in. There will be a few corrections to old numbers below to account for these two. Washington State is now on the 1 loss list. The other mistake was in adding the winless teams last week. I rushed it a little and left off a few. They have been added (provided they didn’t win this week).

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 35.17% (45 of 128)
Week 2: 40.96% (34 of 83)
Week 3: 34.69% (17 of 49)
Week 4: 15.62% (5 of 32)

Number of Possible Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 8
- Notre Dame, Toledo, plus champions of PAC-12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, and American conferences

Week 4 Thoughts:
-Very low week for 1st losses. Only 15%+ is significantly below any other week. We are actually back down to more undefeated teams than 1 loss teams. That said, week 4 has been lower last few years.

-In terms on national title race, we probably saw our biggest change since last year this week. Oregon got killed by Utah. With 2 losses, one of them quite brutal, Oregon likely out of any national championship race even if they turn things around.

-BYU lost 31-0 to Michigan at the Big House. While BYU has delivered some exciting games, that is their 2nd loss and there is probably not enough on the schedule left to put them back into the New Years 6 race, leaving Notre Dame the only independent still competing.

-Louisville won this week which leaves Kansas as the only remaining winless team from one of the power 5 conferences. Kansas will likely be a significant underdog in every single remaining game and this week @ Iowa State might be their best chance for a win (and they are still 16.5 point underdogs).

-From the Group of 5 conferences, we now have 5 undefeated teams (4 from the American and 1 from the MAC) and 8, 1-loss teams (1 from the American, 2 from Conference USA, 1 from the MAC, 2 from the Mountain West, and 2 from the Sunbelt).

-This had the chance to be a banner week for the MAC, but in close games, the MAC undefeated and 1 loss teams lost very close games.

-Based on what’s happened so far, I think we can get a pretty firm grasp for the order the committee will rank teams at the end of the regular season:
1. Undefeated American champ: Conference has been best and it would take a very impressive effort from Toledo to climb above them.
2. Undefeated Toledo: Very solid out of conference and some decent wins in conference if they make it through undefeated.
3./4. 1-loss American champ, 1-loss Boise State. I can’t really get a good feel here and it will probably depend on more than just record.
-Beyond this, it’s much harder to say.


Week 5 Thoughts:
-We are guaranteed at least as many 1 losses next week as we got this week as we have 5 games between undefeated teams. The biggest one is probably Notre Dame @ Clemson, which will affect both teams’ title chances. We also have Ole Miss @ Florida, which will tell us a lot about both. We have Kansas State @ Oklahoma State and West Virginia @ Oklahoma which might show us a lot about who could be rising up in the Big 12. Finally, we have Ohio State @ Indiana.

-On the winless side, winless UMass is favored over Florida International at home.

-Interesting Note: 1-loss Alabama is an underdog at undefeated Georgia. This is the first time this has happened in a long time.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American Athletic: 4, Big 12: 6, Big Ten: 5, MAC: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 5, independents: 1, total: 29

Clemson
Florida State
North Carolina State
Miami (FL)
Kansas State
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
West Virginia
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan State
Northwestern
Ohio State
Memphis
Houston
Toledo
Texas Christian
Utah
California
UCLA
Florida
Georgia
Louisiana State
Ole Miss
Navy
Notre Dame
Temple

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 5, American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 28

Boston College
North Carolina
Duke
Pittsburgh
Tulsa
Penn State
Michigan
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Western Kentucky
Marshal
Air Force
Boise State
Stanford
Southern California
Washington State
Kentucky
Alabama
Mississippi State
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Ohio
Arizona
Missouri



Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 0, American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 7

Central Florida
Kansas
North Texas
UTSA
Massachusetts
Wyoming
New Mexico State