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Putin lays down the gauntlet
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
I kind of agree with Russia on this one. I mean, hopefully we've learned a lesson from the falling of the likes of Sadam and Qadafi, etc. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. I say go after ISIS and then deal with Assad afterwards. If the US and Russia teamed up against ISIS hopefully that would be the ticket to destroying those lunatics.
10-01-2015 07:50 AM
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QuestionSocratic Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
Quote:...marshmallow face...

Seriously, WTF happened to him? Is this what happens when you get too much Botox?
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 07:56 AM by QuestionSocratic.)
10-01-2015 07:54 AM
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ECUGrad07 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)VA49er Wrote:  I kind of agree with Russia on this one. I mean, hopefully we've learned a lesson from the falling of the likes of Sadam and Qadafi, etc. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. I say go after ISIS and then deal with Assad afterwards. If the US and Russia teamed up against ISIS hopefully that would be the ticket to destroying those lunatics.

They're not going after ISIS. They're going after US-backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS.
10-01-2015 07:54 AM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 07:54 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)VA49er Wrote:  I kind of agree with Russia on this one. I mean, hopefully we've learned a lesson from the falling of the likes of Sadam and Qadafi, etc. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. I say go after ISIS and then deal with Assad afterwards. If the US and Russia teamed up against ISIS hopefully that would be the ticket to destroying those lunatics.

They're not going after ISIS. They're going after US-backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS.

Sure, I know there is some of that. However, I think the US needs to re-access it's strategy with regards to Assad anyway. Syria isn't worth an US Russia confrontation. Lord knows we don't have the leadership for that.
10-01-2015 07:59 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  This is about the point where RWT typically tells us that Russia's economy is in shambles and all their efforts will implode.

He's waiting on his talking points from Vox and MSNBCLOL before commenting.
10-01-2015 08:41 AM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 08:41 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  This is about the point where RWT typically tells us that Russia's economy is in shambles and all their efforts will implode.

He's waiting on his talking points from Vox and MSNBCLOL before commenting.

He wouldn't be all that wrong.

[Image: russia-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=rudpryoy&...509241644h]
10-01-2015 08:43 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
Guys...

Its a trap.

There are four groups here: The Kurds, the Non-ISIS/non-Assad forces, ISIS, and Assad.

Assad is supported by Russia and Iran and is mildly opposed by Turkey and the West and very opposed to by the Gulf states. No peace deal can emerge with him still in control that doesn't require constant occupation. The problem is that outside of his ethnic group and smaller minorities in Syria, they all loathe him.

The Kurds are supported by the US and Europe and are the primary target of Erdogan. If Turkey's government changes from the AKP in elections held next month, then that might change. They've pretty much cleared their area. If we get involved, it should only be to help them protect their people.

ISIS is supported by Turkey/Erdogan and some of the Gulf States. Forces divided between Iraq and Syria.

The non-Assad/non-ISIS opposition is supported by some of the Gulf States (and theoretically by Erdogan - but not really). They're getting hammered by pretty much everyone but the Kurds. They are the weakest, but probably the only group that could hold Syria together.

=====

I don't see this working out for Putin. He already had Assad in his court. He's welcome to try to enforce some sort of Pax Russiatica on Syria and Iraq. Even if he "wins"....what does he win. The mistrust of Turkey who will be surrounded by Russian influence at that point.

Sure, if Putin somehow manages to win he'll be the hero of dictators everywhere. But he'll still be broke and his armed forces will still be weaker. And they'll probably be bogged down there for a decade or two.

=====

Its my opinion that the smart strategic move for Russia and China would have been to try to keep the US focused on the Middle East so that we wouldn't be paying attention to things that actually are in our interest to manage.

Obama ain't playing that game.

=====

Putin goes from mistake to mistake to mistake.
10-01-2015 11:02 AM
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Brokeback Flamer Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
You would be surprised how a show of strength pulls people to your side. Putin wants Russian presence in the area and he will get it Iraq. Iran. Syria. Several of the Emirates. Jordan is a wild card unfortunately.
The only opposition will be from SA and Israel
10-01-2015 11:20 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 11:20 AM)Brokeback Flamer Wrote:  You would be surprised how a show of strength pulls people to your side. Putin wants Russian presence in the area and he will get it Iraq. Iran. Syria. Several of the Emirates. Jordan is a wild card unfortunately.
The only opposition will be from SA and Israel

Yes, just like all opposition floated away for a couple of months when we deployed overwhelming forces in the area. Syria has lots of non-Shiites

A Russia/Iran/Assad alliance would clear out the non-Assad opposition, but would inevitably fall apart once the Sunnis started another uprising. Turkey isn't going to like that either. And tying to connect the dots to create the arc from Iran to Syria would involve retaining the Sunni triangle.

Iran and Russia will, if anything, have a MORE difficult time retaining control. Iran's involvement guarantees that the Saudis and the Gulf states will cause trouble. Turkey isn't going to like it either.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 12:02 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
10-01-2015 11:48 AM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(09-30-2015 06:56 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Nope, somehow he's missed the black flags and thousands of armed troops in their Toyota pickups with xx Cal machine guns mounted or the diesel belching armored trucks rolling around the deserts.
Yep, instead, he's somehow, someway managed to find the anti-Asaad "freedom fighters" that are being supported by the US.

As I've said, this is just adding more muscle to the Assad regime's current tactics. This is win-win for Russia because they allow Assad to continue - he's split the opposition into Free Syrian Army and ISIS, and focused all of his attention on the FSA while telling the world he's fighting ISIS. Russia gains by maintaining Assad, weakening US credibility, and also weakening the West by way of making them absorb more Syrian refugees. The "Assad only controls 20% of the country" is somewhat misleading because that could in part represent a drawback in order to turn some Syrian cities into ghost towns, not to mention that Syria is very sparsely populated outside of major cities.

edit: Is anyone really surprised that Russia announced this initiative within weeks of the West ramping up humanitarian efforts to accept Syrian refugees? This is an opportunistic move by the Russians, and is well timed, with the Iranian nuclear agreement and Syria stepping up the ethnic cleansing of Syria.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 12:36 PM by I45owl.)
10-01-2015 11:52 AM
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JMUDunk Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)VA49er Wrote:  I kind of agree with Russia on this one. I mean, hopefully we've learned a lesson from the falling of the likes of Sadam and Qadafi, etc. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. I say go after ISIS and then deal with Assad afterwards. If the US and Russia teamed up against ISIS hopefully that would be the ticket to destroying those lunatics.

Except Putin isn't going after ISIS. He's using that as a cover to go after the anti-Assad forces, in order to keep that murdering lunatic in charge. Meanwhile we sit idly by and watch the trio of Russia, Iran and now Syria dominate the region. All right on the doorstep of NATO members and a stones throw from Europe.

Nice job!

This should end well. 03-puke
10-01-2015 12:03 PM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 12:03 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)VA49er Wrote:  I kind of agree with Russia on this one. I mean, hopefully we've learned a lesson from the falling of the likes of Sadam and Qadafi, etc. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. I say go after ISIS and then deal with Assad afterwards. If the US and Russia teamed up against ISIS hopefully that would be the ticket to destroying those lunatics.

Except Putin isn't going after ISIS. He's using that as a cover to go after the anti-Assad forces, in order to keep that murdering lunatic in charge. Meanwhile we sit idly by and watch the trio of Russia, Iran and now Syria dominate the region. All right on the doorstep of NATO members and a stones throw from Europe.

Nice job!

This should end well. 03-puke

The fact those three are doing that with no regard to US reaction should tell us all something regarding our standing in world affairs at the moment.
10-01-2015 12:08 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 07:47 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  We need to send Trump in there to kill them all.

Trumps comments on this display an appalling ignorance of the fundamental goals of Russia, in particular. For someone who claims he would get the absolute best available advisers, he does not seem to have consulted anyone before speaking off the cuff on a major foreign policy topic.

(10-01-2015 07:54 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  They're not going after ISIS. They're going after US-backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS Assad.

Sunnis have no great motivation to fight ISIS as their primary opposition. They are allies against Assad. US Policy is to make the FSA fight ISIS when Assad is their real target, and it's a foolish policy at this stage. This foolishness is what allows Assad and Russia and Iran to completely outmaneuver the Obama Administration.

(10-01-2015 11:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys...

Its a trap.

There are four groups here: The Kurds, the Non-ISIS/non-Assad forces, ISIS, and Assad.

Assad is supported by Russia and Iran and is mildly opposed by Turkey and the West and very opposed to by the Gulf states. No peace deal can emerge with him still in control that doesn't require constant occupation. The problem is that outside of his ethnic group and smaller minorities in Syria, they all loathe him.

The Kurds are supported by the US and Europe and are the primary target of Erdogan. If Turkey's government changes from the AKP in elections held next month, then that might change. They've pretty much cleared their area. If we get involved, it should only be to help them protect their people.

ISIS is supported by Turkey/Erdogan and some of the Gulf States. Forces divided between Iraq and Syria.

The non-Assad/non-ISIS opposition is supported by some of the Gulf States (and theoretically by Erdogan - but not really). They're getting hammered by pretty much everyone but the Kurds. They are the weakest, but probably the only group that could hold Syria together.

You've neglected the five US-Trained opposition fighters (and I realize it's more than five, but you may as well call them Zero's Army, because that's their net value, regardless of numbers).

(10-01-2015 11:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I don't see this working out for Putin. He already had Assad in his court. He's welcome to try to enforce some sort of Pax Russiatica on Syria and Iraq. Even if he "wins"....what does he win. The mistrust of Turkey who will be surrounded by Russian influence at that point.

Sure, if Putin somehow manages to win he'll be the hero of dictators everywhere. But he'll still be broke and his armed forces will still be weaker. And they'll probably be bogged down there for a decade or two.

You could be right about Putin failing in this endeavor, but I think you misunderstand the mechanism of how Assad can reassert power over all of Syria. It's been clear that he's willing to commit genocide - using chemical weapons against his own people. We've seen Baathists march troops through cities in chemical weapons gear before in order to pacify his people (Sadaam in Shia cities). We will eventually see that again.

Assad is going to try to rid strategic areas of Sunni civilians - making it easier to dominate those cities in the long run. He is focusing on FSA areas in order to defeat any opposition that will get substantial support from the West. Eventually, he will turn on ISIS... what he needs is for Iraq to turn on ISIS in Iraq while he gets strategic support from Russia and Iran to decimate Raqaa. Raze Raqaa to the ground and you will have defeated ISIS... you merely march on to the next town controlled by ISIS and tell them "send us the heads of all the ISIS fighters and throw us a parade, or face the same fate as Raqaa". Does anyone really doubt the collective will of Assad, Russia, Iran, and Iraq to do what is needed to defeat ISIS? Does anyone have any measure of confidence that the US has the will to do so?
10-01-2015 12:12 PM
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JMUDunk Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 12:08 PM)VA49er Wrote:  
(10-01-2015 12:03 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(10-01-2015 07:50 AM)VA49er Wrote:  I kind of agree with Russia on this one. I mean, hopefully we've learned a lesson from the falling of the likes of Sadam and Qadafi, etc. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. I say go after ISIS and then deal with Assad afterwards. If the US and Russia teamed up against ISIS hopefully that would be the ticket to destroying those lunatics.

Except Putin isn't going after ISIS. He's using that as a cover to go after the anti-Assad forces, in order to keep that murdering lunatic in charge. Meanwhile we sit idly by and watch the trio of Russia, Iran and now Syria dominate the region. All right on the doorstep of NATO members and a stones throw from Europe.

Nice job!

This should end well. 03-puke

The fact those three are doing that with no regard to US reaction should tell us all something regarding our standing in world affairs at the moment.

I'm sure you know this, but it's worse than no regard.

It's with a finger poked right in our chest.

Wasn't Putin just over here a couple days ago? His General strolls into an office in Baghdad and says, "You got an hour to clear out, and oh yea, don't have any of your planes in the air either, we wouldn't want them getting shot down" or some such "warning". Then they proceed to bomb the forces we're supposedly backing, however tepidly.

Leading from behind. Good plan.
10-01-2015 12:15 PM
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Post: #55
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 11:20 AM)Brokeback Flamer Wrote:  You would be surprised how a show of strength pulls people to your side. Putin wants Russian presence in the area and he will get it Iraq. Iran. Syria. Several of the Emirates. Jordan is a wild card unfortunately.
The only opposition will be from SA and Israel

Not sure where you get support of the Emirates. They are the most moderate force in the Arab world. Qatar is a different matter, they (he) were early benefactors of ISIS. Israel is staying out of the matter, but it's always been in their interest to have Assad remain in firm control of Syria... they would much rather have a stable Syria, even in the hands of an Iranian ally, than have Sunni Islamist control, which is effectively the only other option in a united Syria. Even the FSA is more likely to instigate conflict with Israel than Assad is. Israel is on the sidelines except when Syria acts as a conduit to Hezbollah... they've intervened when they see shipments going to Lebanon and when they've had minor conflicts on their border with Syria, but I think they've purposely avoided doing anything to further weaken Assad.
10-01-2015 12:19 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 12:08 PM)VA49er Wrote:  The fact those three are doing that with no regard to US reaction should tell us all something regarding our standing in world affairs at the moment.

This has much more to do with the US having a losing strategy and stated goals and policies that can't possibly be achieved. But, it takes terrible leadership to have selected those and be outmaneuvered at every turn.
10-01-2015 12:22 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
Supporting Assad just means endless war. Destabilization may be Russia's goal. That's what they have achieved in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova and the Ukraine.

Assad has burned bridges. He can't do anything but hold onto a rump state.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 12:24 PM by bullet.)
10-01-2015 12:24 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 12:12 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(10-01-2015 07:47 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  We need to send Trump in there to kill them all.

Trumps comments on this display an appalling ignorance of the fundamental goals of Russia, in particular. For someone who claims he would get the absolute best available advisers, he does not seem to have consulted anyone before speaking off the cuff on a major foreign policy topic.

(10-01-2015 07:54 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  They're not going after ISIS. They're going after US-backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS Assad.

Sunnis have no great motivation to fight ISIS as their primary opposition. They are allies against Assad. US Policy is to make the FSA fight ISIS when Assad is their real target, and it's a foolish policy at this stage. This foolishness is what allows Assad and Russia and Iran to completely outmaneuver the Obama Administration.

(10-01-2015 11:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys...

Its a trap.

There are four groups here: The Kurds, the Non-ISIS/non-Assad forces, ISIS, and Assad.

Assad is supported by Russia and Iran and is mildly opposed by Turkey and the West and very opposed to by the Gulf states. No peace deal can emerge with him still in control that doesn't require constant occupation. The problem is that outside of his ethnic group and smaller minorities in Syria, they all loathe him.

The Kurds are supported by the US and Europe and are the primary target of Erdogan. If Turkey's government changes from the AKP in elections held next month, then that might change. They've pretty much cleared their area. If we get involved, it should only be to help them protect their people.

ISIS is supported by Turkey/Erdogan and some of the Gulf States. Forces divided between Iraq and Syria.

The non-Assad/non-ISIS opposition is supported by some of the Gulf States (and theoretically by Erdogan - but not really). They're getting hammered by pretty much everyone but the Kurds. They are the weakest, but probably the only group that could hold Syria together.

You've neglected the five US-Trained opposition fighters (and I realize it's more than five, but you may as well call them Zero's Army, because that's their net value, regardless of numbers).

(10-01-2015 11:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I don't see this working out for Putin. He already had Assad in his court. He's welcome to try to enforce some sort of Pax Russiatica on Syria and Iraq. Even if he "wins"....what does he win. The mistrust of Turkey who will be surrounded by Russian influence at that point.

Sure, if Putin somehow manages to win he'll be the hero of dictators everywhere. But he'll still be broke and his armed forces will still be weaker. And they'll probably be bogged down there for a decade or two.

You could be right about Putin failing in this endeavor, but I think you misunderstand the mechanism of how Assad can reassert power over all of Syria. It's been clear that he's willing to commit genocide - using chemical weapons against his own people. We've seen Baathists march troops through cities in chemical weapons gear before in order to pacify his people (Sadaam in Shia cities). We will eventually see that again.

Assad is going to try to rid strategic areas of Sunni civilians - making it easier to dominate those cities in the long run. He is focusing on FSA areas in order to defeat any opposition that will get substantial support from the West. Eventually, he will turn on ISIS... what he needs is for Iraq to turn on ISIS in Iraq while he gets strategic support from Russia and Iran to decimate Raqaa. Raze Raqaa to the ground and you will have defeated ISIS... you merely march on to the next town controlled by ISIS and tell them "send us the heads of all the ISIS fighters and throw us a parade, or face the same fate as Raqaa". Does anyone really doubt the collective will of Assad, Russia, Iran, and Iraq to do what is needed to defeat ISIS? Does anyone have any measure of confidence that the US has the will to do so?

Yep, its probable that Assad would attempt another "hama rules" genocidal attack on the Sunnis. If he does that, he'll get attacked by the Saudis, who will have to attack in that scenario.

If we could stop such a thing from happening with intervention, it would be morally important for us to do so. However, we're really not going to stop that. Because we really can't. That's really why ISIS is in power. Because the Sunnis know that its either ISIS or a grave. And thats why millions of Syrians are on the move. Millions more are coming. Another lesson to Europe. Sometimes US and European interests diverge. Its not really in our strategic interest to keep Syria quiet as much as it is yours. Maybe its time to actually invest in your armed forces.

Look, we tried sorting out the region. Obama is correct IMHO to stay the f out of it. I'm sad for the Syrian people, but if Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Erdogan, and Qatar want to engage in a bit of fighting amongst themselves in an area that is no longer strategically important to the US, I'm not willing to kill off our troops to try to stop them. Quite frankly, I don't see anybody "winning" there for a long time.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 12:32 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
10-01-2015 12:30 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
(10-01-2015 12:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  Supporting Assad just means endless war. Destabilization may be Russia's goal. That's what they have achieved in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova and the Ukraine.

Assad has burned bridges. He can't do anything but hold onto a rump state.

Youre right about Assad.

This destabilization doesn't help Russia. It might help PUTIN, but this hurts Russia.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2015 12:33 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
10-01-2015 12:32 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Putin lays down the gauntlet
We allowed Afghanistan to become a haven for terrorists.

Somalia is a haven for pirates and terrorists.

Obama encouraged Libya to head down the path of a failed state.

We can't allow Iraq and Syria to become terrorists havens or failed states.
10-01-2015 12:39 PM
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